Check Everything Part 2

[tech58]

That should have been "nattering naybobs of negativism". Anyone know the origin of the quote?

[FloridaPhil]

No one likes to have their dreams shattered, especially when it costs them money. Taking mathematical formulas with fixed factors over unlimited time and applying them to actual human VP play sounds good. It sells a lot of stuff and fills casinos.

If you use this strategy along with some common sense, you can enjoy video poker for a lot less than someone who doesn't. There is no guarantee you will make money. There is no guarantee you won't.

A class three video poker machine produces random numbers. If it didn't it wouldn't be legal. This means what happens when you play is totally unpredictable. That is also what makes playing video poker fun.

[onemoretry]

This means what happens when you play is totally unpredictable. That is also what makes playing video poker fun.

For a small number of hands, that's reasonably correct. But, as you play more and more, the term totally unpredictable becomes less and less appropriate. Various types of outcomes will tend to fall within predicted ranges.

[FloridaPhil]

For sure. Anything can happen in the short term. What is long term? To a player who only goes to the casino once or twice a year, it could be a lifetime. For someone who plays every day, perhaps not as long. I play about 300,000 hands of VP a year. Over the last 10-15 years or so, my royals have appeared as the math predicted. Does this mean they will in the next 10-15 years? I guess we will have to wait to find out.

Will I make a long term profit? Probably not for a lot of reasons. I can't always play the right games. You don't know how I am going to play them. You don't know if I will make mistakes or bad decisions. You don't know if I will play enough hands to make a difference or if I will even live long enough to tell you. There are too many variables in actual VP play to use a math formula as an absolute predictor of VP results. If you wish to use math as a gauge of risk, I'm OK with that.

[Tedlark]

Phil, in your above post you say that you are o.k. with people who want to use math as a gauge of risk. My questions to you are: 1) Do you use math as a gauge of risk, and, 2) If not, what do you use?

I understand that you wrote: "I can't always play the right games. You don't know how I am going to play them. You don't know if I will make mistakes or bad decisions. You don't know if I will play enough hands to make a difference or if I will even live long enough to tell you. There are too many variables in actual VP play to use a math formula as an absolute predictor of VP results." So, would this answer my question #1 above?

[FAA]

What percentage of the 300,000 annual hands are at your primary casino?

[Vman96]

Taking mathematical formulas with fixed factors over unlimited time and applying them to actual human VP play sounds good. It sells a lot of stuff and fills casinos.

Tbh, I think math sells less VP stuff and helps fill casinos less than you think.

90%+ of players could care less about a paytable in my experience.

[FAA]

Unfortunately, we cannot poll the suckers. Right, customers.

[FloridaPhil]

Phil, in your above post you say that you are o.k. with people who want to use math as a gauge of risk. My questions to you are: 1) Do you use math as a gauge of risk, and, 2) If not, what do you use?

Here's my view on this subject.

Risk is the VP 500 pound gorilla in the room. It's what makes VP exciting. It's also what makes VP gambling. When you apply math to video poker it produces two useful numbers, Expected Return and Variance. A player can use both of these factors to make predictions about the games before you play them. I use both factors in making my playing decisions. They don't drive my decisions, they influence them.

The key word is "expected". Expectations can vary considerably from actual. The day I hit four royals, I did not expect to win $14,000 playing 8/5 Jacks or Better. The week I spend in Reno playing NSU Deuces Wild with generous comps, I did not expect to have my biggest loss.

Players deal with risk in a number of ways. Professionals accept risk as part of doing business. If I do my research, check with the experts and buy a stock expecting its value to go up and it drops, I have the resources to absorb the loss and the time to wait it out. If I lose money over a long period of time, I will go out of the stock picking business. Video poker professionals are no different.

I expect to lose a little money playing VP. When I don't, it makes me happy. When I play VP, I am happy more than I am sad. I don't play VP because I want more depressing news in my life. I play VP to escape from bad news. To keep from being sad more than I am happy, I limit my coin in. I do this by playing quarter VP. Playing these games allows me to be entertained longer without incurring more risk. The casino likes this and gives me things I enjoy for playing this way. I like them in return.

Playing VP is about balancing risk with expectations. What works for me may not work for everyone. I am not on this forum to tell people how to play. I am here to assure players have the right to openly discuss playing VP however they wish to play it. That may or may not be the most profitable.

There are a lot more Recreational VP players than profit seekers. Everyone wants to win. Not everyone wants to do what it takes.

[FAA]

I get the odds, you get the comps. We're both reasonably contented customers. If I play much more, free rooms. But I lose 5X room and it better be a padded room.