stats?

[jjilla]

on the stats page it says that 4 aces being dealt is less likely than quad 2's
what would be the difference between any 1 kind of a quad being dealt over another?

[knagl]

It's not talking about being dealt those cards, but rather the odds of your ending hand being quad aces vs. quad 2's, 3's, or 4's.
The odds of being dealt quad Aces is exactly the same as the odds of being dealt quad 5's, or any other quad.
 
Although, I do wonder where they came up with the notion that quad Aces happen less than quad Deuces, unless that page is comparing apples to oranges (combining odds of Jacks or Better with Deuces Wild).  It would seem to me that quad Aces would happen more frequently (in Jacks or Better) than quad Deuces, as one would hold a singleton Ace (and have the chance to get the other three), but one would never hold a singleton Deuce.

[shadowman]

It's not talking about being dealt those cards, but rather the odds of your ending hand being quad aces vs. quad 2's, 3's, or 4's.
The odds of being dealt quad Aces is exactly the same as the odds of being dealt quad 5's, or any other quad.
 
Right you are!
 
Although, I do wonder where they came up with the notion that quad Aces happen less than quad Deuces, unless that page is comparing apples to oranges (combining odds of Jacks or Better with Deuces Wild).  It would seem to me that quad Aces would happen more frequently (in Jacks or Better) than quad Deuces, as one would hold a singleton Ace (and have the chance to get the other three), but one would never hold a singleton Deuce.
 
It is an interesting collection of values. For 2's the number is right for FPDW. For Aces the number is out of 10-6 DDB as is the Aces w/kicker value. However, for a non-kicker game like Double Bonus the number is 5030. If you wanted to know what the cycle time was for ANY set of Aces in DDB you simply average the value of both kicker and non-kicker values.

[mrstevequevillon]

i think it happend less often because the payout is higher and the rng knows what pays more so you get quads of aces less often than a quad of 2-3-4- and you get those 2-3-4 less often than a quad of 5 thru kings... try to find a story that tell somebody went playing for quite long time and never got 5 thru kings but got plenty quads of aces and 2-3-4...

[rascal]

I just must respectfully disagree with you. I have played for a long time, and I play for profit, not fun. The incidence of being dealt or drawing to any of the quads is exactly the same over time. The big qualifier is "over time." Unless you sit and play from 9 to 5, five days a week, 52 weeks a year then it is unlikely that your results will closely mimic the expected average. But if you played that same routine for your lifetime and kept careful records, your final results would be very close to the average.
I play the BP, DBP, DDBP games for profit and I will state without reservation that I have received as many A-2-3-4 quads LONG TERM as I have received of the others, in terms of proportion to the deck. But I can also easily find someone who plays briefly (5 hours or less per week) who has received more Ace quads than the average, or more Jack quads than the average. This is to be expected until the number of hands you play approaches the long-term average.
This is also, incidentally, the reason why profit or ruin results are so unpredictable for players who do not play a huge number of hands over the course of a year. If you fly to Vegas three times a year and play for a solid weekend each time, you still are playing well under the number of hands required to start seeing average results. So you could have one superb year, followed by a terrible year. The average expected results that the "experts" provide are long-term averages. For the casinos themselves, the projected annual returns are based on hundreds of thousands of players over the course of an entire fiscal year. One individual player playing a few times per year could swing wildly either way --- as happens all the time!!
 

[MikeA]

Rascal, I may be repeating something already posted but I would thing the frequency of being dealt a specific rank of Quads would be dependant upon the game being played and the Basic Strategy for that game.  For instance, in Double Double Bonus, you hold two Aces rather than a pair of Aces and a pair of anything else.  But if dealt two pair that do not consist of Aces, you hold the two pair.  In that case, the frequency of being rewarded with Quad Aces is greater than getting quads of any other rank.
 
The same would probalby hold true for Deuces in a Deuces Wild game since you hold two Deuces more often than any other pair.
 
Does that make any sense?  It's clear to me but I may not be stating it correctly for this particular "case".
 
However, in a game where there is no reward for a particular rank, then I'd say that the odds are even on getting quads in any rank.  But keep in mind that even with JOB, you are more likely to hit quads with Jacks thru Aces more often than any other rank because you hold more high pairs since they pay off by themselves. There are times when you will discard one of a pair of low cards to go for hands that you wouldn't go for with a high pair (inside straight maybe?)

[rascal]

Mike, I agree. In the 2nd paragraph of my post above I should have said "in proportion to the deck and to the game itself."

[shadowman]

Rascal, I may be repeating something already posted but I would thing the frequency of being dealt a specific rank of Quads would be dependant upon the game being played and the Basic Strategy for that game.  For instance, in Double Double Bonus, you hold two Aces rather than a pair of Aces and a pair of anything else.  But if dealt two pair that do not consist of Aces, you hold the two pair.  In that case, the frequency of being rewarded with Quad Aces is greater than getting quads of any other rank.
 
The same would probalby hold true for Deuces in a Deuces Wild game since you hold two Deuces more often than any other pair.
 
Does that make any sense?  It's clear to me but I may not be stating it correctly for this particular "case".
 
 
For deuces wild games the number is often LESS than for a non-deuce games because you often hold for SFs, wilds, etc instead of just the deuces.