Can you be a winner long term at any video poker game without hitting a natural royal?

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
FAA
Video Poker Master
Posts: 8569
Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am

Re: Can you be a winner long term at any video poker game without hitting a natural royal?

Post by FAA »

I get so thunderstruck by even a SF that I pack it in for the day. Especially since last time I’d already lost >$200 and SF merely brought me back to base camp. If I do experience a premium hand early, I would like to secure/stash the funds and play as if nothing happened, attempting to add $50+ to my day.

Player422738
VP Veteran
Posts: 516
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:05 pm

Post by Player422738 »

Vp2win wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:38 am
Let's say 5,000,000 and you are limited to nickel slots
Let me do some math for you. If you play FPDW, the probability of hitting royal is 0.000022 assuming the optimal strategy.

So, the probability of playing N hands but NOT hitting the royal is
N = 1000, 97.8%
N = 10000, 80.3%
N = 100000, 11.1%
N = 1000000, 0.0000000278879%
N = 5000000, 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001686869%

the formula is P = (1 - P(hitting royal)) ^ N

So, unless you purposely discard the royal cards when you have to hold, the probability of not hitting the royal after playing 5M hands is less than the sun exploding tomorrow. :D

advantage playe
Video Poker Master
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Post by advantage playe »

similar to flipping a coin heads 125 times in a row ! not nearly as accurate as your math but as some engineers say close enough ! impressive math Hophoofer , most impressive !!

FAA
Video Poker Master
Posts: 8569
Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am

Post by FAA »

If someone can accurately define "long term" for this board, it would be a great service.
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So true. Unfortunately, it won't be the member preceding you.

billryan
Video Poker Master
Posts: 4421
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 1:20 pm

Post by billryan »

FAA wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:45 am
If someone can accurately define "long term" for this board, it would be a great service.
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So true. Unfortunately, it won't be the member preceding you.
By that, I assume you mean can someone give you an answer you agree with, as it has accurately been described several times.

FAA
Video Poker Master
Posts: 8569
Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am

Post by FAA »

Ha. Hadn’t heard that one. I sure have developed a bias. More efficient play a MUST. Dump the CET Comp chokehold. Proceed to Ocean, which at least rewards player largesse.

tech58
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1375
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 1:21 pm

Post by tech58 »

FAA wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 9:45 am
If someone can accurately define "long term" for this board, it would be a great service.
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So true. Unfortunately, it won't be the member preceding you.
Leave him alone faa , it would certainly not be you .

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