Something to Think About

[seemoreroyals]

45,000 points is nothing on a multi-line or a multiplier game. Try that on a single line 99.5% game and tell me how many times that will happen? There are a few possible explanations. I got very very luck, I am lying about my score or the game is rigged in my favor. You can check the score with Webman. While you are at it, ask him if his games are fair.

I have been lucky my whole life. I won't go into it again, but the odds of starting out where I did and making it this far are astronomical. Ted claims to be lucky too. Is he lying? I don't think so. Some people win at video poker and some lose. Claiming luck can be learned is laughable.

You guys can believe anything you want. It's your money. Here's what I predict. As soon as the casinos open back up, everyone will start winning. It will be a bonanza for a while. After things settle in, the machines will go back to being unbeatable. Better get your licks in early because when they come back down, the return will be worse than ever. Good Luck while it lasts.

Tedlark is indeed lucky. 695 top scores of the month on this site. That's incredible. Tells me he practices a lot so he is prepared when he throws real money out there.

All I can add to this back in forth is if I had to choose being lucky versus being obsessed with never making errors both in practice and at the casino, I would rather be lucky. Other than contests, on this website, I play a good percentage of my play on training mode and I set the paytables to what they are at the casinos I play at. IMO if you don't have 9/6 DDB or 9/6 JOB at the casino you play at it makes no sense to practice against those paytables. Where I play, Horseshoe Bossier City, La., 9/5 DDB and 8/6 JOB is about the best that is offered there. That is what I practice and prepare for. If I mess up every now and then and make a minor mistake such as holding a 2 8's instead of unsuited 8-9-10-J it does not really bother me. I try to remember it for the next time and stay on guard and continue to practice and play in an effort to play as accurate as possible. I would still rather be lucky. Hitting a royal or lucking into a cluster of 4 OAK's far outweighs an occasional small error.

I wish this website showed the value of the errors on their training program but unfortunately they do not. I also wish the training program worked on Ultimate X which for whatever reason it does not.

[Webman]

I wish this website showed the value of the errors on their training program but unfortunately they do not. I also wish the training program worked on Ultimate X which for whatever reason it does not.

It sounds like you are only familiar with the Gold Training.

The Pro Training does have EV charts for each hold, and 3 and 5 play Ultimate X. See the PRO menu at the top of the site for more details.

[New2vp]

I wish this website showed the value of the errors on their training program but unfortunately they do not. I also wish the training program worked on Ultimate X which for whatever reason it does not.

Hey seemore, you can check out the Pro Training on this website. I believe it handles both of the issues that you have raised here. It costs money, but if this has value to you, you might want to try it out.

[FloridaPhil]

Striving to play error free is beneficial. It lets you play more hands with the same money giving you more chances at a jackpot and more comps. Who doesn't want that? I would also much rather be lucky than skilled. I played another 500 credits this afternoon. I hit three quads, one was quad 3s with a 4 for 2,000 more credits. My score is now 47,263 credits. Gronbog will tell you the odds of that happening are the same as me being 47,263 points behind. If I was playing $100 games, my profit would be $3,726,300 and I could write a book.

This does not diminish all million dollar wins that happened in the past. It does show that if it can happen to me it can happen to anyone.

[seemoreroyals]

Thank you Webman and New2vp. Did not realize it was only $20 a year more above the gold membership. Sounds reasonable to me. I think I will do the trial run and fork over the $20. To Webman: Is the $20 per year billed separately from the gold membership or can you pro rate so that you are only billed once a year for both? If possible I would rather pay once a year.

[seemoreroyals]

Striving to play error free is beneficial. It lets you play more hands with the same money giving you more chances at a jackpot and more comps. Who doesn't want that? I would also much rather be lucky than skilled. I played another 500 credits this afternoon. I hit three quads, one was quad 3s with a 4 for 2,000 more credits. My score is now 47,263 credits. Gronbog will tell you the odds of that happening are the same as me being 47,263 points behind. If I was playing $100 games, my profit would be $3,726,300 and I could write a book.

Once the casinos open back up it sounds like it is time for you to head to the $100 VP machines in the HLR. If it wasn't for the fact that the machines occasionally go into money sucking mode we could all get rich.

[Gronbog]

My score is now 47,263 credits. Gronbog will tell you the odds of that happening are the same as me being 47,263 points behind.

No I won't. Because it's not true.

First, you started with 10,000, so you are 37,263 ahead.

Second, did you ever reach zero and receive an additional 10,000 to keep you going? If so, then subtract each of those 10,000 refills from your total.

Finally, I would tell you that you have a roughly equal chance of being ahead or behind your expectation. This is not the same as being ahead or behind your starting point.

Your expectation is a negative number which grows more and more negative as you continue to play. At first, it is close to zero, which is why luck can easily put you in profit. As you continue to play and your negative expectation grows, you may still be ahead of expectation, but it gets harder and harder to still be in profit. The role of luck diminishes as you continue to play. As you reach the long run, your negative expectation grows so large that you will no longer have a measurable chance of overcoming it by luck.

[onemoretry]

Questions about strategy are always about very small percentage hands. These hands don't mean squat to a small time player like me.

Uh, this may come as a large shock to you, but you are not the only person on this site. I would venture the guess that the folks who ask the questions that generate such threads feel differently.

[olds442jetaway]

Getting back to comps and casino offers for a moment, I wonder if casinos use programs like LexisNexis Risk Solutions to look into our personal lives and using some formula come up with a factor or chance that giving some players better offers than others will line casino’s pockets better regardless of the patron’s current play level.

[New2vp]

45,000 points is nothing on a multi-line or a multiplier game. Try that on a single line 99.5% game and tell me how many times that will happen?

Well, you might know by now that I could tell you how many times that would happen if I wanted to take the time and make a few assumptions regarding the number of hands played. I realize that you would not be able to tell if I had actually done the calculation, so I won't waste any time on that. As to your point about multi-line games, let's examine:

A recent post shows 44,663 for your total. I'm sure it will change by the time you are reading this, but the point will likely remain the same. Subtracting the starting total of 10,000 credits shows
a profit of 34,663 on a game that allows play of full-pay deuces, a joker game that has an expectation of 101% and a double bonus game that has a 1/2% edge. Actually, it is not too hard to amass an excess if you want to play single hand for hours on end, playing games that have well defined strategies, whether or not you want to deviate from them occasionally.

I do not like to play single-line, so don't expect me to try to prove this when most can understand the theory that this will work without having to go through the experiment. This is not mysterious math here.

On the other hand, I amassed 166,068 credits on Wheel Poker with Quick Quads less 10,000 for a net gain of 156,068 on a mixture of 3-play and 5-play. The strategy details for this game are not as generally available as the regular single line games. I would not expect you to be able to determine the difficulty in attaining such a number, but it certainly is a comparable if not superior achievement to gaining 34,663 on a simple single-line game containing a house edge.

I actually have the top all-time daily score on that game (in 2012) and two more scores in the all-time top 10. I do notice that you are in today's top 10, currently at #4 on the game of your choice, but I seemed to miss your name when going through the monthly list or the all-time list.

Your accomplishment here is some solid work, but not quite at the astronomical level, now is it?

There are a few possible explanations. I got very very luck, I am lying about my score or the game is rigged in my favor. You can check the score with Webman. While you are at it, ask him if his games are fair.

I do not doubt that you have 44,000, 45,000, or 47,000 credits. Since I can calculate odds and understand how credits work on this website, I'm simply not as impressed that this outcome is as large of an outlier as you are impressed with yourself. Webman has enough problems with trying to be patient with you rather than answering unnecessary questions from me.

I started out playing 500 hands a day. I'm winning, so I upped it to 1,000 hands and I won more. Am I now playing too many hands? You should make up your mind.

Do you hear dead people? Are voices telling you something and you are thinking that I said it? You can lie to me, but try not delude yourself. Maybe you can learn something about yourself in less than a year or 1000 posts.

I don't care how many hands you play. I was simply pointing out a problem that you have hinted at many times in the past. You cannot stand losing. This is a terrible quality in a gambler, particularly one who makes negative bets and likes to often stray from optimal decision-making. The following are your words not mine, posted on April 2, website time stamp at 10:09 am:

In the simulation I am currently running myself, I am using a 500 coin low limit. Once I reach that limit, I stop playing for that day. This means the number of hands I play each day varies. If I don't hit a quad or better, like this morning, I don't play many hands. If I do, I continue to play. I may stop play when I reach 4,000 coins to lock in that day's score … I never allow myself to lose more than 500 credits in any one day.

I added emphasis to your quotes to highlight what you are evidently missing. You stopped after a loss of 500 coins the first 4 times, from April 2 to April 5, but evidently you can not stand losing. You say your reason you violated your own rule is that you were winning. Actually you were on a losing streak. I can't believe you didn't realize it. And then after losing 500 the second time, you repeated the violation of your own rule after another losing session the next day. And that violation was after 6 consecutive losing sessions. And somehow your excuse is that you were winning? It is good for you that this is not money. It is no wonder you now are forced to bet small.

I'm not the one that has to make up my mind. If it were up to me, you would not need to post your sessions at all. I know how to simulate these results very quickly, with several simulations in a few seconds. I already posted earlier: 90% of the time you will lose 500 credits, the rest of the time you will win 4000 to 7990 credits with most of those wins concentrated around the lower limit. Actually, some of the time you will get too tired and not reach either a 4000-credit win or a 500-credit loss.

No one can predict the future, not even Gronbog. Here's what I predict. As soon as the casinos open back up, everyone will start winning. It will be a bonanza for a while. After they suck you back in, the machines will go back to being unbeatable. Better get your licks in early because when they fall this time, your return will be worse than ever. Good Luck while it lasts.

Again with the voices? You have no idea how often I play, whether I win or lose, or what stakes I play. Actually, disagreeing with you is beneficial to gambling results most of the time; but I wouldn't expect you to understand that. Maybe this is ... Something (for you) to Think About.

Hey, stay well and wash your hands. This is not an optimal strategy that you should mess with avoiding at your age.