Am I anywhere near correct on this?

[olds442jetaway]

If I play 98.8 Bonus Deuces Wild VP on Spin Poker, in the long run I should hit either Quad Deuces, quad Deuces plus an Ace, or a Royal every 5200 hands roughly on one line. If I play 3 lines, I would hit one of these things roughly every 1700 hands? Thanks.

[olds442jetaway]

Guess I should say every 1700 deals since each one represents 3 hands dealt.

[New2vp]

It will be less frequent than simply dividing the deals by 3, because some of the deals will result in the 3 lines having 2 or 3 of those jackpot hits.

VPFW allows you to see a close estimate for regular triple play, which will be somewhat different but probably close to playing 3 lines on Spin Poker. On regular triple play, the probability of a hit of 1000 or more coins summing all 3 lines is 0.0005484 or 1 in 1823 deals. This would include the few times that one is dealt 5 aces and a couple much rarer combinations (2 hands of 5 aces and 1 hand of five 3s thru 5s). Subtracting out the dealt quint aces leaves a probability of 0.0005284, so that would equate to something less than 1 in 1892 deals.

Spin Poker will have fewer deals that result in 2 such jackpot hands, but if 2- and 3- jackpot hands were impossible except when the jackpot was dealt, we still couldn't get better than 1 in 1865. The programming to get an exact number is involved, and of course nothing is going to guarantee that a random cycle might take 2 or 3 times that figure.

Based on what you have reported over your lifetime of play, even a duration of 10 cycles isn't a safe bet, is that right?

[olds442jetaway]

Yes, thanks so much N2vp for the heads up and great analysis. I knew I would be off somewhat and glad I was at least in the ballpark with my numbers. A perfect example of cold cycles was last evening and the first time I have run into it on this machine. If I play 3 lines at my usual Spin Poker Speed ( slow to moderate ) or 600 hands per hour, that would translate into about 1800 hands an hour for the session. My session overnight and a couple hours this afternoon was about 10 hours total. There were times I played between 4-9 lines so that skewed things a bit, but the bottom line is instead of getting maybe at least 10 hits which with the Clone would have kept me even or better even without a Royal, I only had 2. Obviously, on a dollar machine this is a devastating blow to bankroll. As we all know, in VP anything crazy will happen eventually. I remember one trip to AC in 1979 before I got my feet wet with VP, there were 14 consecutive red hits in the Roulette game I was playing. Of course I was playing black. That took care of my 200 buck bankroll in a hurry that day and taught me a lesson about something being “ due “. Thanks again for the great info.