I got away from restricting my wins in Blackjack by leaving after a given amount of "win" a long time ago. However, because I'm thinking about going into quarter level VP (about equilivent to playing $25/hand BJ as far as BR goes) I was giving this some thought.
Designate $100 per day as a bankroll for quarter VP on DB 10/7 machines. I know it is VERY small but bear with me. I'll have another $100 set aside for other gambling...some nickel VP and also some whitechip Blackjack. If I run out of that, I'll people watch!
$100 comes to 400 credits on quarter machines.
Any time I play and win 100 credits ($25) more than the 400 I started with, I cash and pocket the excess leaving the $100 to start another session. I keep playing with the $100 until I lose it. If I lose it, I revert to the other games on the other $100 I've budgeted. If I lose that as well, then I'd have to look to what I'd rat-holed and decide if I wanted to call it a bust day or whether to delve into the winnings from the quarters (assuming there are some!)
I play at around 750 hands per hour with 95% accuracy right now but will have that accuracy percentage up close to 100% before I indulge in this experiment (other than on simulators). Most of my errors are carelessness (or "hardware failures" in clicking the mouse on the wrong card to hold) in the "minor" category at a cost of .025 credit or less. I'm not missing on the intermediate and major levels very often.
Once I build my confidence up, the limits I set with be based on what I do in Blackjack. If it is a positive game, I quit when I run out of money!
Low Roller Money Management
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MikeA
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shadowman
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I got away from restricting my wins in Blackjack by leaving after a given amount of "win" a long time ago. However, because I'm thinking about going into quarter level VP (about equilivent to playing $25/hand BJ as far as BR goes) I was giving this some thought.
A pretty good estimate. BJ is usually played at around 60 HPH or 60*25 = $1500/hour (+ doubles/splits). Quarter VP at 800 HPH is $1000/hour but at a much higher variance.
Designate $100 per day as a bankroll for quarter VP on DB 10/7 machines. I know it is VERY small but bear with me. I'll have another $100 set aside for other gambling...some nickel VP and also some whitechip Blackjack. If I run out of that, I'll people watch!
$100 is not very much for DB. You can expect to lose it all quite often. There seems to be big difference in my experience between $100 and $200 as to how much play time you will get.
$100 comes to 400 credits on quarter machines.
Any time I play and win 100 credits ($25) more than the 400 I started with, I cash and pocket the excess leaving the $100 to start another session. I keep playing with the $100 until I lose it. If I lose it, I revert to the other games on the other $100 I've budgeted. If I lose that as well, then I'd have to look to what I'd rat-holed and decide if I wanted to call it a bust day or whether to delve into the winnings from the quarters (assuming there are some!)
I play at around 750 hands per hour with 95% accuracy right now but will have that accuracy percentage up close to 100% before I indulge in this experiment (other than on simulators). Most of my errors are carelessness (or "hardware failures" in clicking the mouse on the wrong card to hold) in the "minor" category at a cost of .025 credit or less. I'm not missing on the intermediate and major levels very often.
Once I build my confidence up, the limits I set with be based on what I do in Blackjack. If it is a positive game, I quit when I run out of money!
First of all, your plan HAS to be something you are comfortable with as you play. There is no single approach that is right for everyone. If you lose too much to start out it can be very frustrating. When I first started advantage play I lost for over 5 months ($6K on quarters) before it finally turned around. Hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.
Personally, I would have a bankroll of around $5K for 10-7 DB to give you a high probability of success. I don't worry about win goals or stop losses. It will all average out in the end. You should know your EV including cashback and bounceback as that significantly impacts the EV on a barely positive game like 10-7 DB. For example, I always assume an error cost of between .05 and .2 % depending on the difficulty of the game. Without good comps, CB or BB you are looking to pretty much break even.
I'll give you an example of one opportunity I am now playing. The game pays back 99.7% (I subtract .05% error rate for the game). The cashback is .3% but often they have double points and I do about 50% of my gambling then. The bounceback and comps, based on $50K coin-in/month, is $300. This yields another .6%. So, my average EV for this game is 99.65+.45+.6 = 100.7% (of $50K) = 350/month. Naturally, I will lose some months and win big others. Also, this does not count promotions that can often improve these values.
A pretty good estimate. BJ is usually played at around 60 HPH or 60*25 = $1500/hour (+ doubles/splits). Quarter VP at 800 HPH is $1000/hour but at a much higher variance.
Designate $100 per day as a bankroll for quarter VP on DB 10/7 machines. I know it is VERY small but bear with me. I'll have another $100 set aside for other gambling...some nickel VP and also some whitechip Blackjack. If I run out of that, I'll people watch!
$100 is not very much for DB. You can expect to lose it all quite often. There seems to be big difference in my experience between $100 and $200 as to how much play time you will get.
$100 comes to 400 credits on quarter machines.
Any time I play and win 100 credits ($25) more than the 400 I started with, I cash and pocket the excess leaving the $100 to start another session. I keep playing with the $100 until I lose it. If I lose it, I revert to the other games on the other $100 I've budgeted. If I lose that as well, then I'd have to look to what I'd rat-holed and decide if I wanted to call it a bust day or whether to delve into the winnings from the quarters (assuming there are some!)
I play at around 750 hands per hour with 95% accuracy right now but will have that accuracy percentage up close to 100% before I indulge in this experiment (other than on simulators). Most of my errors are carelessness (or "hardware failures" in clicking the mouse on the wrong card to hold) in the "minor" category at a cost of .025 credit or less. I'm not missing on the intermediate and major levels very often.
Once I build my confidence up, the limits I set with be based on what I do in Blackjack. If it is a positive game, I quit when I run out of money!
First of all, your plan HAS to be something you are comfortable with as you play. There is no single approach that is right for everyone. If you lose too much to start out it can be very frustrating. When I first started advantage play I lost for over 5 months ($6K on quarters) before it finally turned around. Hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.
Personally, I would have a bankroll of around $5K for 10-7 DB to give you a high probability of success. I don't worry about win goals or stop losses. It will all average out in the end. You should know your EV including cashback and bounceback as that significantly impacts the EV on a barely positive game like 10-7 DB. For example, I always assume an error cost of between .05 and .2 % depending on the difficulty of the game. Without good comps, CB or BB you are looking to pretty much break even.
I'll give you an example of one opportunity I am now playing. The game pays back 99.7% (I subtract .05% error rate for the game). The cashback is .3% but often they have double points and I do about 50% of my gambling then. The bounceback and comps, based on $50K coin-in/month, is $300. This yields another .6%. So, my average EV for this game is 99.65+.45+.6 = 100.7% (of $50K) = 350/month. Naturally, I will lose some months and win big others. Also, this does not count promotions that can often improve these values.
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MikeA
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 3:50 pm
Not quoting everything you responded with since is in an adjacent post.
First, thanks for the confirmation. I fully realize the "short stack" I'll be playing with. I also fully realize that when playing a positive expectation game, it is futile to quit just because you hit some arbitrary number in wins.
That's why I "built" the model to work from with a cut-loss but in effect, nothing on the win side to limit play. I will have the option to dip into the ratholed monies if there is any, to continue play. Normally, I won't do this until the last day of the trip if I have enough to occupy my time during the stay. My objective in trips to Vegas are to have fun, lose no more than I can afford to lose and make a little if I'm fortunate. I say "fortunate" rather than "lucky" because I play nothing but positive expectation both in BJ and in VP.
I could easily add in that second $100 each day to the quarter VP, but doing that would put all my eggs (few though they are) into one basket.
You make a very valid point with the "error factor" and how it impacts the overall expectation. That is a primary reason for keeping my loses to a fixed amount per day until I am more confident. Also, keeping them at that level insures that I will not run out of Bankroll before the end of the trip.
First, thanks for the confirmation. I fully realize the "short stack" I'll be playing with. I also fully realize that when playing a positive expectation game, it is futile to quit just because you hit some arbitrary number in wins.
That's why I "built" the model to work from with a cut-loss but in effect, nothing on the win side to limit play. I will have the option to dip into the ratholed monies if there is any, to continue play. Normally, I won't do this until the last day of the trip if I have enough to occupy my time during the stay. My objective in trips to Vegas are to have fun, lose no more than I can afford to lose and make a little if I'm fortunate. I say "fortunate" rather than "lucky" because I play nothing but positive expectation both in BJ and in VP.
I could easily add in that second $100 each day to the quarter VP, but doing that would put all my eggs (few though they are) into one basket.
You make a very valid point with the "error factor" and how it impacts the overall expectation. That is a primary reason for keeping my loses to a fixed amount per day until I am more confident. Also, keeping them at that level insures that I will not run out of Bankroll before the end of the trip.
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MikeA
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Tue Oct 24, 2006 3:50 pm
As a preliminary followup:
I've played 6 sessions of 400 credits. Won something on the first three and lost all on the last three. I'm down a virtual $58.00 after 1,420 hands. Not even quite two hours of play at my 750 rate. Now, I'd have to make a choice. I could go ahead and play out the remaining $42 of the original $100 or could walk away for the day with virtually no loss and use that $42 along with my "reserve" $100 and waste the rest of the day at nickel VP or red/white chip blackjack.
Point is that it doesn't take anytime at all to go through $100 in quarters even when you start out winning! If that holds true on the average, I'll most likely bust out in an hour or two.
I've played 6 sessions of 400 credits. Won something on the first three and lost all on the last three. I'm down a virtual $58.00 after 1,420 hands. Not even quite two hours of play at my 750 rate. Now, I'd have to make a choice. I could go ahead and play out the remaining $42 of the original $100 or could walk away for the day with virtually no loss and use that $42 along with my "reserve" $100 and waste the rest of the day at nickel VP or red/white chip blackjack.
Point is that it doesn't take anytime at all to go through $100 in quarters even when you start out winning! If that holds true on the average, I'll most likely bust out in an hour or two.
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