Atlantis Triple Play Keno Contest best Keno EV

[Webman]

Couldn't you just input higher payout values into the Keno calculator, based on the EV of the base game and the multiplied return for a certain win level?

[Minn. Fatz]

Thanks, New2vp and Webman, I found the error. As you can imagine it was particularly silly; I was multiplying the VP return by 3 (hands) instead of 15 (credits) on the Keno hits. So with permission to revise and extend my remarks...I also get .99922 for the EV of the overall game with 10 Keno picks. Here are the corrected Keno portions of the return for each possible number of picks:10 picks: 1.006149 picks: 1.006106 picks (default): 1.00547 picks: 1.00443 picks: 1.004128 picks: 1.004115 picks: 1.00282 picks: 1.00184 picks: 0.91304As I alluded to above, the 12x multiplier with 3 picks always comes with a 250 Keno payout, helping get more sessions over the 2K mark for the daily random prize draw; I went 3 for 7 on that today. You're right, it's not that simple, but with a goal in mind (maximizing the probability of both a 12x multiplier and a > 2K session) the choices become clearer.

[Webman]

That low payout on 4 picks IS an error on our part... there was a typo in the payout for the keno payout on 4 picks, which will be remedied for the game on this web site. However, the payout in the contest will remain throughout the contest so as to keep the game consistent for all participants.

[New2vp]

Couldn't you just input higher payout values into the Keno calculator, based on the EV of the base game and the multiplied return for a certain win level?

Yes, if the calculator allowed fractions, but that would still require a lot of pre-multiplying.  Plus we want to look at lots of calculations to find out which keno selection has the highest EV for both options (5-coin and 10-coin, Mark 2 thru Mark 10).  This makes it quite a bit easier to copy formulas in an Excel spreadsheet for simple comparisons and analysis.Keno calculators, unlike video poker software, are fairly easy to emulate in a spreadsheet.

[New2vp]

That low payout on 4 picks IS an error on our part... there was a typo in the payout for the keno payout on 4 picks, which will be remedied for the game on this web site. However, the payout in the contest will remain throughout the contest so as to keep the game consistent for all participants.

Interesting.  When the game was first put out, was the keno payout 540 (with the same 12x poker multiplier) for the Keno win with 4 HITS on 4 picks instead of the 240 that is there now?For some reason, I either coincidentally copied it down wrong in my spreadsheet or initially this payout was 540, so to me, 4 picks did not look out of the normal range.

[Webman]

540 sounds more right than 240. I no longer have the sheet in front of me as I'm out of the office for the evening. Perhaps it is correct in one location and incorrect in another. I will update with the correct information tomorrow.

[BillyJoe]

I still believe in my gut (stealing from another thread ) that the mathematics are somewhat moot, since you are ONLY playing 100 hands.


 
Also, to be able to use the 12x multiplier, you have to have a winning hand in VP, which as we all known in 3-way, is not automatic.
 
I would think that getting that large Keno bonus, whether or not you have a VP winning hand to apply a 12x multiplier, would go a long way in contest mode.   

[Webman]

540 is the correct value for 4 picks.It displays this on the pay table screen within the game, which is likely where New2VP saw it. When you select 4 spots within the game is where the error was made.Yes, billyjoe... I think you're right about what it takes. You can play to improve your odds, but you still of course need those magical numbers and cards to appear. But if there's a way to improve your chances of a 12x (which would also apply to Ultimate X contests) then that is a step worth taking.

[Minn. Fatz]

Using the correct value of 540 for 4 hits out of 4 marks on Keno, the correct EV for the Keno portion of the TDB game would be 1.0049, 4th highest between 6 and 7 marks.I did pretty good today with my "moot" mathematics, 4 of 5 sessions > 2K for random draw entries.