Move or Stay?

[FloridaPhil]

Video poker is one continuous cycle of winning and losing.  Being a long term winner or loser depends upon when you quit the game or die.  If someone walks into a casino with absolutely no knowledge of the game hits a royal flush and never returns, he/she is a long term winner and no amount of math will change that fact. What we are discussing in this thread has nothing to do with strategy.  The question is whether moving up and down in denomination is better than flat betting.  Playing for years next to my wife has helped me answer that question.  Assuming the game and the odds are the same, I don't think it matters long term.   I do it because I like hitting bigger jackpots and don't mind losing more money in between. She stays the same because she doesn't like the swings. Her bankroll moves up and down slowly.  Mine makes big moves.  If either one of us quits or dies while we are ahead, we can carve "Long Term Winner" into our head stones.  

[paco13]

Didn't intend to veer off topic, my apologies. Any how, It seems to me it depends on your style of play or how you approach the game whether to switch denom's. Some are long run players with bankroll's committed for such.Probably best for them to flat bet I think. For some each session is it's own and their BR for each may be different. I am more of the individual session type. The denomination I play is dependent on how much I start with and how long I intend to play or need to stretch it. I will change up if I am doing well and increase my BR for the session. Will drop back down if it turns into a vacuum. Or if I'm about ready to leave/not stay long I may go for the higher pot shots just for the hell of it.
Sometimes it's just how I feel that day. I am clearly a recreational player. It would be nice to earn an income from VP but definitely the odds are against that here in the east so those lucky sessions are what it's all about. Moving around a bit adds to the excitement for me.

[FloridaPhil]

I agree.  As recreational players we have limited bankrolls, so we tend to "adjust" the denomination to fit our desired length of play.  Assuming the game, odds and strategy stay the same, changing the denomination has no negative or positive affects.  What we are doing is playing at a higher "average" denomination.  As long as we have the bankroll to support it, I don't see the harm.  Eventually, it all comes out in the wash.The problem today is trying to find playable quarter VP odds.  We're lucky in that the Hollywood Casino has decent odds from quarters all the way to the $5 level, but this is rare.  Interestingly enough, in most Florida casinos the single coin dollar odds are a point or more higher than the max coin quarter odds.  Most players don't realize this fact, can't stomach short coin royals or don't want to risk playing max coin dollars, so they play the stinky quarter odds anyway. The question is... Does switching denomination pay off in the long run?   Very few people are ahead of this game not counting comps.   Counting on a big denomination hit to pull out a year's worth of loses is risky business.  Switching is exciting and the comps are definitely better at the higher denomination.  If you like excitement, switching is worth the cost as far as I'm concerned.

[billryan]

Does playing a million dollars on quarters at 98.6% make you win or lose more than playing a million dollars at dollars at 98.6%?

If this were a question on a freshman math quiz, I'd imagine most of the students would get it right.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]Does playing a million dollars on quarters at 98.6% make you win or lose
more than playing a million dollars at dollars at 98.6%?  If this were a question on a freshman math quiz, I'd imagine most of the students would get it right.[/quote]All things being equal, the denomination does not affect the long term game outcome.  However, dollar comps are greater and the quarter player will play longer.Here's one for you.  If you play the exact same game side by side Bob Dancer for 20 years with the same speed and skill level and he plays $25 a hand and you play quarters, who will be ahead at the end?  His comps will definitely be greater, but either one can be ahead on the machine as chance has an effect on the results. That's why it's called gambling.If I play quarters behind both of you and switch to $25 for one hand and hit a $20,000 royal flush then play quarters over the rest of the time, I beat the experts.  Obviously this is a ridiculous example, but one you should be able to understand.  THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES IN VIDEO POKER.  

[ukaserex]

It seems to me that despite playing at "regular" casinos where advantage play is very rare, I've not seen one statement I expected to see. Perhaps it's just a given.

While gaming commission rules will vary state to state, I can attest only to what Mississippi's are. And, because they are in legalese - I'm not 100% certain I've understood them correctly. Without making this post really non-fun, I'll just add that different denominations at most casinos will have different pay-tables.

For example: At the IP Casino (formerly Imperial Palace) they have a non-smoking section - complete with a bar that has no doors that allows smoking, if that makes any sense. But I digress.
They have 6/9 JoB. About 20 feet away, they have 6/8 JoB - these machines allow free play, the 6/9 do not.

They allow your credit value to be .25, .50, $1 or $2.

When you switch to $1, the pay tables are better.


Alternatively - when you go the high limit area, the $5 & $10 per credit JoB, the pay tables are only 6/8.

So - if you want to play $5 or $10, take yourself to the Hardrock - they have 6/9 JoB at those higher levels.

Overall, the percentages don't change unless the pay-tables change. So, in some cases, changing denominations is helpful, because you can get an extra 5 credits, possibly 10 credits for a full house, depending on the change in denomination.

Also - in Mississippi, it's worth Googling "Mississippi Gaming Commission" and sifting through the MGC regulations.

Remember, payback over time is governed by the paytable, right? Or is it? Not necessarily. Only over the long haul - and that is our dilemma. We have places to go, other things to do. We can't play all day, every day. So, in a lot of ways, that lovely 98.6% or whatever it is for 6/9 - it makes no difference when you're just there for a couple of hours or a couple of days.

You want to essentially get lucky. You get a full house, if you're up, cash out, take a break. Put your money away and only play with the casino's money that you won. That's the way I play - but I'm 45 minutes away from the casinos. It's an easy trip for me - but no so easy that I would dream of going every day. Only when I've got the free play to make it worth the trip. At least $40 bucks, so if I get half of it, I can refill my gas tank, at least.

I don't win every trip - but I do win most trips. I do this by never putting my money in the machines.

I go to the Palace Casino Resort. I put my card in - put $5 bucks in the slot machine (no free play on VP). I might get lucky, I might not. As I use $1 each spin, the casino's Free play system gives me my dollar back, and it adds whatever I win to my credits available. I typically will win $7.50 to $25 bucks. Occasionally, I'll get lucky with a $60 or $80 total. (rarely)

Then, I head off with whatever I've gotten - put my $5 back in my pocket and play VP with whatever I won. I start with .25 per credit - even though the pay scale stinks. I feel dirty using free play and just leaving with it.

Win or lose - I play for $20 increments. If the amount I won initially was less than $20, I play it until it's $20 or zero. If it's more than $20, I play until it's $40 or $20. (games like Ultimate X can make this system frustrating!)

When I hit $20 or $40 (sometimes $60 when I get a quad) I leave for Harrah's.

Harrah's is notorious for ridiculous free play and food vouchers. They were, at one time, giving me over $100 per week - and most of the time, I'd just use those in the $5 machine and go for broke! I made $850 once - and I think that's when they cut my free play to $75. I generally always leave with $50 to $70 bucks from Harrah's. I do make a point to risk that money with the same $20/40 rule - unless I've won big, like that $5 quad, when I left with $850. I see no reason to give back big chunks of cash.

Then it's off to Hard Rock. A place that has great ambiance, a lot of smoke, super-friendly staff but no free play for VP. Might as well use it, right?

Then, I'm off to Treasure Bay - skipping the Beau (as well as The Golden Nugget.) I just don't like those two. Treasure Bay - if you go there often and don't mind the smoke, you can do okay with the comps and free play. I generally only get about 25 to 30 bucks here, but I don't play here that long because of the smoke. 20 minutes, tops, usually. Then it's off to Island View - another smoke filled place that doesn't let you use free play on VP. Still, may as well use it. Comps are tough here, and admittedly, they cut me off for a few months but have renewed their marketing onslaught with measly $10 offers. I'm in the neighborhood and generally leave with zero. Sometimes $20. Very rarely more than that. I think once in the past 20 trips.

Then, it's back to the interstate, head back East and hit the 110 South to Scarlet Pearl, which always seems to give me small Free play with scratch off cards that will double it on certain days.

Then, off to IP. IP's free play program is a mystery to me. I think they're on some odd algorithm that takes what you did 4 months ago, weighs that against their expected crowd. Some months, I get $15, other months I get $30. Either way, I use them.

And, that machine that's 6/9 - I take all the winnings and if it's over 100, whatever's over 100, I stick in my pocket. Slip the 100 in and play until it's $50 or $150. Sometimes, I get lucky.


Then, occasionally, I take all these winnings that I've accumulated over the month and head over for a weekend trip. I like to take at least $400 and cap it at $500. I try not to let them win it all back, but some days are better than others.

Most important rule for me - no weekend trips until the IRA is maxed for the year.

[FloridaPhil]

There is a lot to break down in this post.  Great way to start off the New Year.  Thanks for posting.[quote=kaserex]So, in a lot of ways, that lovely 98.6% or whatever it is for 6/9 - it
makes no difference when you're just there for a couple of hours or a
couple of days.
[/quote]We all know that odds don't have much affect on results in the short term as you can hit a royal on a 6/9 machine just as easily as a 9/6 machine.  However, the longer you play the greater the affect.  Not picking on Mississippi, but we used to make 4-6 trips there a year and we started going before Katrina.  We played all the casinos you mentioned except the Scarlet Pearl which didn't exist at that time.  The biggest VP day of my life came at the Beau Rivage with the worst odds you could imagine.  Over the years we noticed our money lasted much longer at casinos in other states.  At the Beau Rivage for example, it was common to hit a royal in a week's play and go home a loser.  And there was the 3% off the top tax on hand pays, which is ridiculous. If you consider each day as a separate game, odds may not seem important to you.  However the worse the odds, the more it is going to cost you to play long term.  VP is unique in that you can adjust the cost of admission to whatever you feel comfortable with.  If we ever play in Mississippi again, we will play at the lowest denomination possible and run for the door on all jackpots, which sounds like what you are doing,[quote=ukaserex]Overall, the percentages don't change unless the pay-tables change. So,
in some cases, changing denominations is helpful, because you can get an
extra 5 credits, possibly 10 credits for a full house, depending on the
change in denomination.[/quote]Absolutely right.  At my local casino the single coin dollar odds are nearly 1% higher than the max coin quarter odds.  I do not advocate playing single coin for most players as the sadness of a single coin royal is too hard to handle.  However, I could care less.  At my local casino I play single coin dollars, save a quarter a hand and get the benefit of nearly 100% odds (not counting the royal bonus).  When I switch to max coins, I'm playing closer to even with the house. Bob Dancer would say I should play dollars all the time and he would be right.   Personally, the bankroll swings that come with dollar play kill the fun for me, so I like what I do.  My strategy is definitely not for everyone.  My point is, know what the odds are before you make these decisions.  Odds do matter, but they're not always what they seem to be at first glance.[quote=ukaserex]Win or lose - I play for $20 increments. If the amount I won initially
was less than $20, I play it until it's $20 or zero. If it's more than
$20, I play until it's $40 or $20. [/quote]Like us, I see you enjoy moving around from casino to casino.  We travel a lot and for us the most fun is going to an area that has a bunch of casinos and doing the same thing.  As we move around, we consider each casino or day as a separate session.  Math guys will tell you setting cash out limits doesn't matter because it's all one continuous game.  This is true, but they are missing the fun of competing on a daily level.  To play the short session game, setting a low cash out limit is essential.  We also play $20 at a time.  This gives a better way to manage our money instead of shoving in the whole daily bankroll.  At this time we are using a $50 cash out limit and it's working well.   Any time the counter reaches $50, we get a while ticket and we don't cash the white tickets until we leave.  Low cash out limits will not keep you from losing, but they will help you manage what you have.What we are talking about here is negative game recreational strategy.  I have absolutely no disagreement with Bob Dancer's methodologies when applied to a world of positive VP games.  Positive games rarely exist in my world, so I take from him what is valuable and make adjustments for the games I play.