Deuces Wild Results

[FloridaPhil]

My wife just got a new phone. She takes a phone photo of every quad deuce and non deuce royal she hits. We counted up the photos and thought her results may be interesting to a few forum members.

She plays max coin quarter single line deuces wild exclusively. She never changes games or denomination. She never takes a "pot shot" and has never had a hand pay. The games she plays range from 96.765% to 98.913%. She is very disciplined and accurate. Her only adjustment to computer strategy is to go for a royal on all non deuce two card royal hands. If she is losing, she goes shopping. If she is winning, she stays with the game. She doesn't play as much as I do. She plays about one full day a month (5,000 hands) plus a half dozen or so extended VP vacations.

She has had her current phone for about four years. Her phone contains photos of 52 $250 quad deuces and 5 $1,000 non deuce royals. She averages about one royal each year. Her quad deuces appear at just about the predicted frequency of one every 5,000 hands. She plays VP for nearly nothing.

[FloridaPhil]

As you can see, her jackpot frequency is just as the math predicts. I attribute her low cost of play to her willingness to stay with the same game at the same denomination. She also plays slow and double checks each hand. The casino is not profiting from players like her. The casino is profiting from players like me who attempt to engineer jackpots by switching games and varying their bets. I am attempting to cure myself of this affliction. It's a struggle, but I am making progress.

[olds442jetaway]

And me......good going for the mrs. Say hi. Heading up tonite phil. Been doing much better in the discipline dept. part of that is to punish the casinos for continuing to remove vp machines and or lower paytables. I have cost them so far this year 30k since my donations to them have fallen by that much. If they keep doing it so will i even if i have to get to the point of playing a nickelat a time. Im seeing many of their brand new ultra fancy penny machines going unused. Too bright and hard on the eyes. GOOD.

[FAA]

Penny for your thoughts?
My dollar play has yielded some notable hands. But overall a gambit better eschewed. Lots of buyer's remorse here.

[FloridaPhil]

Over the years on this forum I have been critical of VP experts for not addressing the needs of players who play negative games. I believe this confuses the majority of players and causes them to go it on their own. I spent 15 years in my own personal "VP research lab" and wasted a lot of time and money. Here are my conclusions to this point.

The experts essentially have it right, but in my view they are emphasizing the least important part of the strategy. The goal of a professional VP player is to make a profit. The experts say the key is to play overall positive games accurately. Most Recreational players would like to make a profit as well, but they do not have access to these opportunities. How do you solve this? You change your goal.

My current goal is to play VP with the least amount of long term investment. This means at the end of a year when I tally up my wins and losses they are as close to zero dollars as possible. If I win for the year, all the better. I realize the games I have to play prevent me from making a lot of money. All I want is to play the game and not lose a lot.

In order to do this I must play more like a professional. I must find a game that I can play accurately for long periods of time. I must find a denomination that won't cause me to make poor decisions. I must develop the discipline to stick with that game no matter what happens. If the game odds are positive, that's a good thing. If they are not, my cost to play will be a little higher.

Unlike a professional player, I am not willing to bankroll big financial swings. The higher the denomination I play the more money I must dedicate to the game. To reduce this amount, I choose to play smaller not bigger even if the odds are better. At this time, I play max coin quarter VP. On a bad day I can lose $300. Thankfully those days are rare. Losing $300 does not make me happy, but it is not going to cause me to jump off a bridge.

Most of our losses come from poor decisions, not poor games. We start out with good intentions. When things don't work out, we make errors in judgment. For example. I may play deuces wild for 3 hours and find myself down $200. I panic and switch to Bonus Poker. Sure enough, up pops a quad deuce and I just lost $200 for making a stupid decision. Sometimes this works to our favor. A few weeks ago, I was down playing Bonus Poker, switched to Double Double Bonus and hit four 4s with an ace for $200. Unfortunately, this rarely happens in my favor.

To a Recreational player odds are the least important factor in Video Poker. If you are going to play big stakes with the goal of making a profit, they are very important. If you don't have access to positive games or you are not willing to make the investment, play the best games you have available. You will be able to pay more hands this way giving you more chances at a jackpot. Jackpots happen no matter what the odds of the game are.

Find a game you enjoy and can play accurately for the long term. Find the best odds available for that game. Choose a denomination you are comfortable with. Stop switching games. Stop taking pot shots. Stop counting hands. Stop moving up in denomination to cover your losses. Get a plan and stick with it. Nothing works all the time. You will still have bad days and good.

Last year at this time I changed my plan and my year end results show it. It's a battle to stay on course and I haven't won the battle yet. At least I know what I must do.

[FloridaPhil]

Penny for your thoughts?

Over the years on this forum I have been critical of VP experts for not addressing the needs of players who play negative games. I believe this confuses the majority of players and causes them to go it on their own. I spent 15 years in my own personal "VP research lab" and wasted a lot of time and money. Here are my conclusions to this point.

The experts essentially have it right, but in my view they are emphasizing the least important part of the strategy. The goal of a professional VP player is to make a profit. The experts say the key is to play overall positive games accurately. Most Recreational players would like to make a profit as well, but they do not have access to these opportunities. How do you solve this? You change your goal.

My current goal is to play VP with the least amount of long term investment. This means at the end of a year when I tally up my wins and losses they are as close to zero dollars as possible. If I win for the year, all the better. I realize the games I have to play prevent me from making a lot of money. All I want is to play the game and not lose a lot.

In order to do this I must play more like a professional. I must find a game that I can play accurately for long periods of time. I must find a denomination that won't cause me to make poor decisions. I must develop the discipline to stick with that game no matter what happens. If the game odds are positive, that's a good thing. If they are not, my cost to play will be a little higher.

Unlike a professional player, I am not willing to bankroll big financial swings. The higher the denomination I play the more money I must dedicate to the game. To reduce this amount, I choose to play smaller not bigger even if the odds are better. At this time, I play max coin quarter VP. On a bad day I can lose $300. Thankfully those days are rare. Losing $300 does not make me happy, but it is not going to cause me to jump off a bridge.

Most of our losses come from poor decisions, not poor games. We start out with good intentions. When things don't work out, we make errors in judgment. For example. I may play Deuces Wild for 3 hours and find myself down $200. I panic and switch to Bonus Poker. Sure enough, up pops a quad deuce and I just lost $200 for making a stupid decision. Sometimes this works to our favor. A few weeks ago, I was down playing Bonus Poker, switched to Double Double Bonus and hit four 4s with an ace for $200. Unfortunately, this rarely happens in my favor and it busts me more times than it helps me.

To a Recreational player odds are the least important factor in Video Poker. If you are going to play big stakes with the goal of making a profit, they are very important. If you don't have access to positive games or you are not willing to make the investment, play the best games you have available. You will be able to pay more hands this way giving you more chances at a jackpot. Jackpots happen no matter what the odds of the game are.

Find a game you enjoy and can play accurately for the long term. Find the best odds available for that game. If the odds aren't to your liking you can choose not to play. Choose a denomination you are comfortable with. Stop switching games. Stop taking pot shots. Stop counting hands. Stop moving up in denomination to cover your losses. Get a plan and stick with it. Nothing works all the time. You will still have bad days and good.

Last year at this time I changed to this plan and my year end results are much improved. It's a battle to stay on course and I haven't won the battle yet. At least I know what I must do.

[FAA]

Thanks. My question's intent was to rib Olds about the MS penny slots invasion. But of course I recall your strategy switch. It's worked remarkably well. I finally found a convenient Boardwalk casino with full menu machines. I'll be grinding at quarter and fifty.

[FloridaPhil]

There are many Recreational players who honestly don't care about these things. They want to experience jackpots and to them the long term cost is part of the game. I play more video poker than most. For that reason, I am more aware of the long term cost. If you are only going to a casino a few times a year, the games you play and the strategy you use makes little difference. Anyone can be dealt a royal flush.

Some players say they play for entertainment and their losses are the price of admission. I was in that camp for a long time. This may work for some players. I play so much VP that the long term cost to play badly starts getting pretty steep. My goal is to total up my cost to play and add back the real value of my comps. If the net amount is negative, I want it to be as close to zero as possible.

I am not on this forum to impersonate a VP expert. If the experts would address playing negative VP, I wouldn't have to post about it. We have enough experts telling us how to get rich playing positive games. What we need is more information for the majority of players who do not have access to those games.

[FAA]

Sure. These games are not radioactive. But they must be sparingly fed. Let's top out at $2.50 and have peace of mind.

[onemoretry]

To a Recreational player odds are the least important factor in Video Poker.

I'm just guessing here, but I'd be willing to speculate that a lot of folks here would disagree with the thought that video poker pay tables are so insignificant that they come last when one is considering where and what to play.