2019 VP

[Tedlark]

Two observations on your rehashing post Phil: 1) the 3 royals that you and your wife hit were completely by luck and if you hadn't gotten lucky you'd be farther in the hole; and, 2) experts don't get "lucky" playing by the math.

[FAA]

Reasonable people can disagree on this. No harm in taking a handful of shots a trip on this improbable outcome.

[New2vp]

Good point, case. We cannot expect him to understand now. But we could expect the predicted self-congratulations and rationalization.

Of course we don't see expected return in the wallet. Actual return could be more or less than expected return. That is not a mystery. What we also do not see in that wallet are the 16 or 17 benjamins that used to be there since taking the last royal picture.

In addition, you do not see a picture of the other 16,214 or so failed attempts when a royal did not appear after the draw attached to the previous post. The average loss on those hands of course is more than double the numbers that Phil admits to. But if you are willing to give up 4 cents a hand to get a royal, why not 8 or 10 cents a hand? How about 12 cents a hand? Is there any limit? If there were, we could begin to form a coherent strategy to get to that limit.

You also do not see the royals or quad deuces that might have occurred had he drawn 5 cards. If there was a picture of a redrawn royal attached to this post or maybe a couple sets of 4 deuces, would that strengthen the point for choosing the alternative that maximizes expected value? Or some other strategic method.

It is interesting that rationalization has him using different standards for expert or amateur success. Does the RNG reward amateurs more than experts? An expert in Phil's mind must have a guaranteed profit for success while the amateur's goal is only to get lucky once in a while. So, an example of the unlikely best that can happen to an amateur compared with the worst that happens with expert play is supposed to make some point. And why, might you ask, does Phil bring up expert or professional play in the recreational play section so often?

Certainly there is a mathematical method that maximizes the probability of a royal flush with a given pay schedule for any given starting bankroll. And if people want to use such a strategy to get a feeling of accomplishment without considering expected cost, that would be great. But don't expect Phil to use that strategy. Those strategy changes often include more than drawing three to ace-high two card royal combos. Such a method takes a little more math than is available with the typical video poker software but is doable with an Excel spreadsheet and a bit of know how.

I guess the best lesson that we can take away from this discussion is don't bring only 3rd grade math and an overinflated ego with you if you expect to win an algebra contest.

Best of luck in the new year, case.

[billryan]

Note to self- Stay on this guys good side.
It's like watching a sword fight with one guy armed with a rapier and the other holding three feet of baloney. Godzilla vs Bambi pt. 3

"I think 21 is gonna be a good year".

[FloridaPhil]

There is some factor of luck involved in everything that happens while you are sitting at the machine. If the game is fair, the numbers the RNG selects are random. What mathematics does is provide you with the probability of possible results. In every one of these calculations, there is room for all possible outcomes.

Successful professional players only play when they have the advantage. They possess computer like playing skills. They have the discipline and bankroll necessary to survive through all downturns. The odds are in their favor, but there is no guarantee they will be winners. If you play VP with an edge, good things MAY happen. They also may not.

Conversely, there is no guarantee my wife and I will be long term losers. The odds are heavily against this outcome. So yes, I agree we have been lucky. If you want to say that professional players have a better chance of winning long term, I totally agree. If you claim a skilled VP professional playing with an edge is guaranteed to win long term, I disagree. If this was true, Vegas would be full of VP winners. Ask our expert how many successful VP pros he knows and see for yourself. I find it curious that they all seem to be on this forum.

Even though we are playing for fun not profit, we do have a limit on how much we will bend the math. Four cents out of a $1.25 cent bet to gain a few more royals is OK with us. So far this has worked out. In an earlier post, we were discussing a 22 cent error. We think that is too much risk. Gambling is about risk assessment. When you are gambling, you are betting money that your advance choice will produce a future winning result. As far as I know there is no casino that will rebate 100% of your losses. If there is, no one is talking.

[billryan]

If only there was a forum where people didn't obsess with professional players.

[Waiting4RF]

DAAnMAAn posted pictures June 19th and June 21st where twice he threw away all 5 cards and got quad deuces on the draw.

Also Jan 8, 2018 I told Phil :
" Just a thought on holding 2 card royals you are not supposed to hold according the strategy. When you do this, you are preventing getting 3 other royals and many quad dueces combinations. "

And the response was similar to this repetition we have a year later.

Happy New Year!!

[FloridaPhil]

If only there was a forum where people didn't obsess with professional players.

I am not obsessed with professional players. I am concerned that players will think there are guarantees in the way they play the game. There are millions of people who play VP each year. Today's players have more information available to them than ever. There are stacks of books and CDs on how to play the game. There is computer software that will train you to play computer perfect. Why doesn't everyone win long term when it sounds so easy?

I think there are many reasons for this. First, not everyone wants to do what it takes. Playing computer perfect forever is not easy. Watching your bankroll go up and down by thousands of dollars without it affecting your decisions is tough. Most players do not have access to positive VP. There aren't Red Rocks or South Points all over the US. Finally, how long are you willing to lose money before you win?

The biggest reason is players don't care that much. Like us, they play the game for fun and hitting royals is more fun than saving 4 cents a hand over and over again. I have no way of knowing if everyone on this forum that claims to be a long term winner actually is and frankly I don't care. I want players to know there is a possibility that they can do everything right and still lose. Video poker is a casino game played with real money. It's very entertaining. It can also be very addicting. We have enough problems without encouraging people to take big risks with their money without knowing all the possibilities.

[onemoretry]

If only there was a forum where people didn't obsess with professional players.

I am not obsessed with professional players.

Well, you certainly carry on as if you are obsessed by a particular one.

[New2vp]

Note to self- Stay on this guys good side.
It's like watching a sword fight with one guy armed with a rapier and the other holding three feet of baloney. Godzilla vs Bambi pt. 3

"I think 21 is gonna be a good year".

Thanks, Bill, I appreciate your succincticity, even if that is not technically a real word!