Check Everything Part 2

[olds442jetaway]

Oh! That Royalless term again that I think I coined few years ago. exactly right. It all comes down to the mumber of hands played. I don’t even like to remember my 3 stints of over 600 k hands each without one and mostly one line play at that. I still think that may be a world record. Currently approaching 100k again and nearly 3 million without a dealt one. Luckily, the quad deuces have kept me about even the last couple of months. Stealing Phil’s phrase again in vp anything can and will happed, the mrs. Had 2 dealt ones in the last few weeks on nickels.

[OTABILL]

Is it possible that a player could play VP 10 years without a royal? We have had a few members who have reported this result. How do you explain that?

Who has reported that here?

And how many hands have they played?

Because if they have only played 5000 hands of VP in 10 years, then I definitely expect they haven't hit a Royal yet.

Hell, it took me almost ten years in a casino to get one. But, I hadn't played over 100k hands at that point. So being Royalless for that long is far from surprising. Time is irrelevant. Hands are what matter.

That was my wife and I. She went 17 years before hitting her first royal. I went over 10 years not hitting a royal in either Vegas or Laughlin on single line quarter VP which I play over 99.5 percent of the time. During the same period my wife had the same experience. We are recreational players and don't count how many hands we play. That's for the pros, APs and others. I am sure she and I played significantly more than 5000 hands during that period. I attribute the lack of RFs purely to luck, standard deviation, etc. Nothing nefarious.

[FloridaPhil]

Suppose you play a 97% video poker game for one day in your life. You hit a royal, make a profit and never play VP again making you a long term winner. Does it matter what the odds were on the game you played?

Does this mean playing better games better is worthless? Of course not. The more hands you play, the greater influence math has on your results. Playing better games better allows you to play more hands with the same money giving you more chances at a jackpot. Unfortunately, It doesn't force them to happen.

A video poker machine doesn't know who is playing it or how many hands you have played. It doesn't know if it has ever produced a royal for you or if it ever will. What happens when you play is unique to the hands you see in your playing lifetime. Those hands are determined at random.

"Standard Deviation" covers a very wide array of results. Not all of them are profitable.

To quote an expert, "There are no guarantees. You don't know if you will be here tomorrow."

[Eduardo]

Suppose you intentionally hit your head against a wall one time in your entire life. It might hurt a little, it might hurt a lot, or depending on your head, you might not even care. Experts may advise against it... but the truth is, it's not that big a deal.

Now repeat this process 5,732 times. Does the same logic still apply or does the repetition make it better advice to not hit your head on walls?

[wilcoxfun]

I went into high limit. They had a penny game there I thought this is strange. Put a hundred in and hit max. I got very lucky as the machine hit. I won nearly a thousand dollars did not realize that I had just used all of my money on that one hit! I cashed out.

[FloridaPhil]

Suppose you intentionally hit your head against a wall one time in your entire life. It might hurt a little, it might hurt a lot, or depending on your head, you might not even care. Experts may advise against it... but the truth is, it's not that big a deal.

Now repeat this process 5,732 times. Does the same logic still apply or does the repetition make it better advice to not hit your head on walls?

If you play 40,000 hands of 9/6 Jacks or Better without a royal, do you believe your chances of hitting a royal flush become better or worse? Does it matter?

[billryan]

The sad thing is Phil still thinks those two questions are the same.

[FloridaPhil]

The sad thing is Phil still thinks those two questions are the same.

Most of what VP experts tell me has turned out to be true. However, I don't believe anyone can predict in advance who will be a video poker winner or loser by using math. One thing has always been consistent. Whenever you think you have this game figured out, something different happens.

[New2vp]

I know there are some let's say seasoned seniors here, so they may recall the "Chatty Cathy" doll. At the time it was amazing for a doll to talk in the pre-computer-chip days. Of course, when you pulled the string, what she said may not have had any context to the situation at hand.

Anyone know why I might have thought of that while reading this thread?

A: She just kept on talking whether or not she made any sense at the time. After a while you realized that she had exhausted her repertoire and nothing new was ever going to be said.

[New2vp]

Is it possible in this thread that one poster has said all 3 of these things at different times?

1. "It is my money."

2. "It is the casino's money."

3. "It is neither my money nor the casino's money."

With that logic, I'm not sure that it is surprising what conclusion the author reaches or whether it is even possible to have a reasonable conversation with any common ground.