Probability of Ruin?

[FAA]

You win the internet today, Olds.

[olds442jetaway]

Caught this earlier today when the deuces just weren’ hitting. Paid for part of the danage but gave half back as an awful dud streak ensued. Even dropping and holding the bets to bet 5 didn’t help.

. Note it appeared on the redraw

[olds442jetaway]

I was just thinking phil, of your statement about never have gone more than roughly 20,000 hands without hitting them. Have you ever thought of just betting enough to be even when the deuces hit? Im trying to muster the discipline to do this as we speak. As an example let’s say you played 3000 hands and for the day lost 300 bucks. Your next session would only start at bet 6 and if you hit other good stuff like wild royals, you could probably drop your bet back to bet 5 quarters for a while until you have lost a total of 250 bucks then go back to bet 6. I wonder how high our bets would get in 20,000 hands I’m tempted to try it on a nuckel machine with a crappy 95 percent paytable because those machines let you go up to bet 40. Very few left like that. Usually bet 25 is the max. Any hits on a royal would of course be gravy and could be for other things other than gambling

[FloridaPhil]

Everything works until it doesn't. Since you asked, here is my answer. The most mathematically efficient way to play VP is to play like the experts tell us to. Their way is not necessarily the most entertaining way to play VP, at least for me. If your goal is to make a profit playing VP, do exactly what they say.

Over the years, I have tried most everything anyone can imagine. Like you, I enjoy hitting big jackpots. I do not enjoy enduring big losses. Here is my personal favorite way to play VP. This is NOT the most profitable.

I like to play single coin dollar Deuces Wild $20 at a time. At my casino, this provides a few advantages. The dollar max coin dollar odds are 98.9%, much better than the max coin quarter odds. Mathematically, single coin dollars is a better game than max coin quarters where I play. The cost to play each hand is 20% less. The quad deuce jackpot is $200, only $50 less than max coin quarters. A $250 royal is equal to a max coin quarter quad deuce. I don't cry over these as it's just like hitting a quad deuce at max coin quarters.

A few times a day, my $20 bill turns into $50 on the counter. When this happens, I switch to max coin dollars and play back down to $20 when I switch back to single coin dollars. The majority of the time I lose $20. On occasion, I get a max coin dollar run up that is worth $100-$200. When this happens I cash out and put the ticket in my wallet. If I get lucky and hit a max coin dollar quad deuce for $1,000, this is equal to a max coin quarter royal only nine times more frequent. NO W2-G. Three times in my life I have hit a max coin dollar royal this way. I consider this a windfall and I don't cry over the taxes.

I don't want anyone to think I am recommending anyone play VP this way. I play VP for entertainment only. I play with disposable income. The anticipation of a big jackpot is what I enjoy most. When it happens, I don't consider the long term cost.

I don't always play this way. If I can find decent quarter odds, I will play max coin quarters just like the experts tell me to.

[FAA]

Reminder to Self: quarters. Bally's BP is still five. Set it and forget it. I go on fifty cent jaunts and it's over.

[olds442jetaway]

Yep! Fifty cent diversions for me you might as well put me in the stocks and leave me there. Dollars......The guillotine. At least after that, except on Halloween when I become the headless horseman and ride over to the casino, l’m done. Termine’. Fertig. Acabado! Ecccellente!!!

[FloridaPhil]

There is more to VP than how much you win. How much you lose is actually more important in my view. If I hit a $4,000 dollar royal flush in January and lose $7,000 in February, I have a net loss of $3,000. If this continues, I may discover I could have bought a new Mercedes with my money instead of buying a bunch of casino memories. That is why I choose to play VP small. Playing VP small is pretty uninspiring, so I take a $20 pot shot once in a while. Sometimes I get lucky which satisfies my need for greed.

I don't expect anyone else to understand how I feel or play the way I do. It works for me and that's all that matters. I'm not going to the casino to make a profit. I don't expect to. What I expect is a good time without blowing a big hole in my bank account. I can tolerate a loss of a few thousand dollars or so annually and enjoy still myself. Lose $20-$30-$40-$50K or more a year? Totally out of the question.

[FAA]

Yeah, as losing is the norm. RF will be a hazy memory in the wake of multiple three figure loss trips! Bringing peanuts and putting the whole damn circus on a diet.

[Waiting4RF]

But for someone else it may be a bargain to lose $20k-$50k a year for all the free entertainment, free rooms, free food, free shows, free etc that they get.

[olds442jetaway]

Exactly. For me it is a big balancing act. Staying on the house at the casino 150 nights a year along with other free stuff easily adds up to 50k a year. And there are other things I could have done like play unlimited free golf on a beautiful course, free cruises, unlimited single malt Scotch etc. At some point though, one gets tired of losing in 90 percent of the sessions. Also knowing that you play as close to perfect play as humanly possible on the outside within 1/4 percent and year after year falling a couple of percentage points shy of the amount one should lose long term gets old. Add to that, the continual assault on vp players by eliminating points you can spend, the could care less attitude on the smoking issues by the casino, reductions of paytables, and rewarding penny slot players like they are Royalty has made the decision for me to spend my free time and discretional funds on other things. I will never become a mindless penny slot player and play games without skill just to pass the time. As we speak, I am weaning myself off the casino life like many vp players have already done. I should have started that back in 2011 when the casino first started their vp assault. I dont think they even realize how much money vp players in general leave at the casino. I wonder if they will find a way to make up the several hundred thousand dollars I fed them over the last 8 or 9 years