Probability of Ruin?

[olds442jetaway]

If one plays regular deuces wild, 98.91 paytable, and has a 500 dollar bankroll, betting at least 5 quqrters, but no more than the amount needed to be even if the quad deuces hit, what are the chances of busting in 4,000 hands which for me would be an average session. By busting, I mean losing the entire 500 bucks. If this is too complicated to compute that’s ok. Thanks.

[billryan]

My math skills are put to shame by some here, but I think you are asking the impossible.
Varying your coin in changes a simple calculation into a series of more complicated ones, unless I'm not seeing something.

[FloridaPhil]

Bill is right. Current computer simulations can only yield useful information if all the factors are constant. To create a simulation what can mimic a human mind would be daunting. If you can come up a definable mathematical progression with some structure, this may be possible. In the near future, artificial intelligence may replace human thought. I hope to God I'm gone by then.

[FAA]

Point of Emphasis: Quarters. The woes of defiantly raising denomination materialized again yesterday.

[olds442jetaway]

To put into perspective FAA, getting beat up on nickels equates to a tongue lashing. Quqrters, my grandmother’s willow switch, dollars, the bull whip, and the five dollar game, well we wont even go there. Saturday night started with a rather mild tongue lashing, followed by the stinging willow switch.

[FAA]

I really never learn and continue to suffer. 75% BR cut next week. Time to put the machines on a strict diet.

[olds442jetaway]

I’m starting tonight. Spinach salad garnished with nickels and a single balsamic quarter. Followed by spring water, 2 ozs poached chicken sprinkled with nickels abd asparagus. A little jello with a quarter on top for dessert.

[FloridaPhil]

Playing Recreational video poker is always a compromise. On one hand you wish to avoid busting and on the other you want to experience big jackpots. I fought this battle for years and I'm not totally out of the woods yet. If you play the best games with the same bet accurately, you will gain the best possible return that game provides. Playing this way becomes boring to many Recreational players, myself included.

If I change games mid play, I risk hitting quad aces playing Deuces Wild or quad twos playing Bonus Poker. If I switch to single coin so I can play longer for less, I risk hitting a short coin royal flush. If I switch to max coin dollars, I can go through $500 in 30 minutes. There is no game or strategy that will solve this problem because the problem is in our heads not the game.

[Tedlark]

How about we all remain on topic here.

Olds, based on your history of fluctuating betting, I would be curious to see if this can be calculated as well.

[FAA]

Long overdue diet. I'm done chasing RFs this year. Why risk another forty beatings? I just won my second in as many years, and a good deal ahead of the theoretical cycle. Now it's all about fun, cheap trips. I will feed my stomach, not the voracious maw of machines.