I'm Convinced

[FloridaPhil]

Since I have been on this forum I have been searching for some way to personally verify the math of Advantage Play strategy. Since I am not able to match the games, skills or discipline of an Advantage Player, I have found this difficult. I believe I have found the proof I was looking for. It has convinced me beyond a doubt that the experts have been right all along.

So how did I prove this to my own satisfaction? In order to test VP math, you must duplicate AP playing conditions. First, you must have access to positive VP games. Second, a disciplined playing environment with no errors, pot shots or going on tilt. The third is an unlimited bankroll. For me at least, these are impossible conditions to meet, or so I thought.

I pay $8.95 a month to be a Gold Member of this website. There are some advantages that I don't take full advantage of. The one I enjoy the most is the ability to play against other members. I enjoy the competition. Some of these players are pretty consistent and tough to beat. Some hit a royal and you never hear from them again. The website provides you with 10,000 coins to start with. You pick the game you like. The member with the highest score wins for the day. Your credits accumulate and do not reset unless you run out.

I almost always play the same game. The game odds are nearly 100%. If I found this game in a real casino with comps, it would be an opportunity. The game I play has very high variance. I can go thousands of hands before hitting a decent jackpot. I have been playing this game for a few years now.
I play this game practically every day and I play at least 1000 coins each day. It's about as close to professional playing conditions as I can get. I'm sure I make some errors, but I believe they only cost me a few 10ths of a percent.

So how do I do playing this game? Right now, I have over 40,000 coins. I have quadrupled my 10,000 coins in a couple of years. Royals show up on time. I have long dry spells where my coins may drop by 50% or more. I can go for days without a quad. Sooner or later, the odds work in my favor and my coins recover. The game is still not positive, but it's very close. With comps, it would be a winner.

Do my results prove I have been lucky? For sure. They also prove that VP math is right. Could I lose 30,000 coins and become a long term loser? Yes, but it's doubtful and it would take a long time.

Now that I have the proof I wanted, what do I do with it? Not much I'm afraid. The problem with real life conditions is these opportunities don't exist in the casino's where I can play. I would never be able to stomach the huge swings of this game and I wouldn't stay at the same denomination for long. Still, this information has value.

I am totally convinced video poker math works if you have all the conditions present. If you don't, you are going to pay to play. End of story.

[FloridaPhil]

I would like to add a few comments that some may find interesting. There is a huge difference in playing video poker on this website and playing in a real casino. The most obvious is the ability to play full pay games. The second is you never run out of money. Put both of these things together and you are playing at a huge advantage over a casino.

Playing faster on this website is better. Playing negative games slower in a casino saves money. When I play on this website I play at least 1000 hands a hour. Playing a 96% video poker game that fast in a casino is courting financial disaster. Small errors become less significant when you play on this website as well because you never run out of money.

When playing on this website, there is no reason to switch games, second guess your strategy or attempt to trick it into producing a bigger payout. Play 100% games error free? Check. Never run out of money? Check. This is what happens in a simulation. Simulations are not real. They exist in a world where you control the options. A brick and mortar casino in the year 2019 is not that world.

I believe there was a time when playing video poker in a casino was the same as playing on this website. You had to know what you were looking for and it took patience, but it existed. Does it exist in the casinos where I play today? Pure fantasy. Still, it is comforting to know that the math is right.

[FAA]

If I hit a hand pay, I will file my TR and you'll never hear from me again.

[Jstark]

You can lead a horse to water but, ahhh nevermind.

[FloridaPhil]

The ability to profit from video poker is not something most of today's players can visualize. It's no wonder so many players doubt the experts or the fairness of the games. Today's players never see the VP game conditions on this website or even those of 15-20 years ago. Sure, they may find a few full pay quarter games, but they aren't going to get rich playing them.

Then there are the players themselves. I don't believe it's the games that cause most of the problems. If I play VP on this website like I play in a casino, I wouldn't win here either. Jumping from game to game, incrementing denominations, going on tilt and greed causes most losses.

When you play 99.9% of today's video poker you are fighting a losing game before you put your first dollar in the machine. There will always be an Ultimate X leftover or an unusually large progressive still around. I go to the casino to play games, not stand around waiting to pounce on one of them.

So now that I have proved to myself the math works, what can I do about it? The first thing I should do is realize there is a cost involved when I go to a casino. I should use my knowledge of the math to balance that cost with whatever value I get out of being there. I should also know the best way to reduce my cost is to lower my expectations. I should tell that little gambler in my head that keeps urging me to go for broke to take a hike. Once I decide what game I am going to play and for how much, I should stay with it long term. I won't make a profit, but I will play without overpaying. I will never be able to duplicate the games I play on this website, but I can stop the self inflicted damage.

[FAA]

Jumping from game to game, increment denominations, going on tilt and greed causes most losses.
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Yep. Just control those four factors and you should break even. Maybe play an hour instead of 2-8, but a pretty good compromise for me. You only play $20 at a time. That's one falling knife you've already dodged.

[FloridaPhil]

Discipline is easy when the temptations are gone. Not so easy when your emotions are selling you the dream of a big jackpot. The casino uses this vulnerability against us. If everyone knew for a fact that they are most likely going to walk out of the casino with empty pockets, would we still play?

Instead of selling players on the idea that today's casinos are beatable long term, I think we should be honest and admit they aren't. Then we would all know there is a cost to playing VP and we wouldn't have to blame the games, the casino or the experts. This would be bad for casinos, so it's never going to happen.

I played on this website this morning as I always do. Within 20 minutes I hit 4 aces with a kicker for 4,000 points. If you believe the RNG on this website is the same as in the casino, I'm beating this casino. It's not that hard when the games are 100% and you never run out of money. It's Fantasyland.

[FAA]

Yet another example of how the online world is highly illusory. Thus the phrase "keyboard muscles." Most confrontational chatter on forums and social media simply would not occur face to face.

[billryan]

How can anyone trust the "math"? I used to but then was informed that the " numbers" did not originate in the West but are in fact "Arabic" . We, in the West, live according to Judeo- Christian ethos. No wonder some here don't trust these Islamic configurations.

[FloridaPhil]

Math is not the problem. Math is perfect. The problem with gamblers is they believe math only applies to losers. Anyone can beat the casino if they only play 100% games that don't exist. No one runs out of money if another 10,000 coins magically appears when your bankroll is gone.

What we should be teaching players is that playing video poker today costs money. We should talk about ways to limit the cost of playing the games we have. That is a lot harder than saying "Don't play negative VP games". Does anyone seriously think that keeps people from doing it?

I play video poker on this website. I also play in real casinos with real money. I can beat this casino because I can play 100% games and my total cost is $8.95 a month. I can't beat my local casino and neither can anyone else.