Quad Harvesting

[FloridaPhil]

I know it's not PC to say so on this forum, but I don't put much faith in the ability of VP math to predict future events. Math says I am going to lose long term and that has proven to be true. What it doesn't tell me is what is going to happen along the way. The $4,000 royal flush above had nothing to do with the odds of the game. As you can see, they were 8/5. From a math standpoint, this game was a total loser. It happened right after a player left their machine after hitting a quad ace with a kicker.

According to the math, the quarter games I play average about negative $15 an hour. That one $4,000 royal covered 266 hours of my losses playing negative quarter games. What math could predict that would happen or that it will ever happen again? VP math provides estimates based on unchanging factors in a simulation or a spreadsheet. It's useful. It is not infallible on a day to day basis.

This is what makes gambling fun. If the odds were directly linked to your wallet, there would be no need to play. You would put your money in the machine and the reverse ATM would give you back 96-99%. The truth is anything can happen at any time. You can hit a royal out of the blue. You can hit four of them in a day or you may never hit one.

Does this matter to your average player? I doubt it. I'll be at the Hollywood Hard Rock tomorrow night for my wife's birthday. If I walk around to all the video poker players and chastise them for playing losing games, would anyone leave?

[onemoretry]

Same old, same old!

My thought is that you aren't really as math clueless as you pretend to be, but like to post what you know are questionable comments simply to see how much reaction you can stir up.

[Carcounter]

I've had more cold than hot streaks on 9/5 Super double Bonus, but once walked out up $1,400 during an hour session at the .50 level. Last Friday, hit the 4 aces for $400 5 minutes before I had to leave. Puts me in positive territory (very slightly) for the year.

[FloridaPhil]

My thought is that you aren't really as math clueless as you pretend to be, but like to post what you know are questionable comments simply to see how much reaction you can stir up.

Why not? Don't you ever grow tired of the same people telling us how they win all the time and how stupid you are if you don't? In my opinion, the major influence on your results in video poker is luck. A few members call it timing to avoid the term. Some people believe they are luckier than others. I start to think that sometimes, then reality straightens me out. The difference between me and the perpetual winners is I admit I can't beat the casino.

No one wins all the time. If you only play when you have an advantage you won't be playing much video poker these days. The games are different. The days of big time positive VP games are gone. As soon as someone figures out how to beat the game, the casino fixes the loophole. If you want to make a career out of scavenging left over multipliers or showing up only when a progressive is large enough, fine. That doesn't do it for most players.

It's about time we started talking about video poker in 2019 and beyond. I liked the 50s and 60s too. Gawking at the new cars in October, sock hops, drive in movies, soda fountains, your first taste of beer and your first girl friend. What's better than that? I can pretend it's 1962. I can't cut my hair in a flat top because I don't have enough hair left. Pretending it's the year 2000 with positive VP and casinos making major errors in their comp programs is just as pointless.

[FloridaPhil]

Today's video poker advantage is about receiving the most entertainment for the least long term cost. If we want to make today's players better, that's what we should be talking about.

[billryan]

A week ago, our village "non expert", started a thread about his experience convincing him that the math actually is right. After numerous references to grade school math, we are told that math in fact can be used to predict future results.
Now, he starts a thread telling us he has no faith in this very same math. Is anyone surprised that in the span of a week, the OP has both defended and attacked the exact same principal.

[FloridaPhil]

Here's where we agree. If you only play positive video poker games 100% computer perfectly with an adequate bankroll, you will make a profit. Of that I have no doubt. You may also earn comps that can make up the deficiencies. I have no argument with those statements.

The problem comes when you attempt to put those facts into actual practice. First you must find a near positive video poker game. If you live in Vegas or AC, you may still find a few. We play video poker all over the country. Near positive VP games are extremely rare. If you do find one, it's normally in quarters and they will be in a small group over in the corner or hidden somewhere. Lately, even the 98% games are being downgraded to 96%.

The second problem comes when you attempt to play 100% computer perfect. Each game and each pay schedule is different. You must be able to play them all good enough to beat the casino. You must also be able to play the game accurately over many many hands. Not an easy feat. Impossible for most 72 year olds.

You must have enough money to survive the inevitable downturns. Not a big deal if you are going to play quarters. Who has enough free cash sitting in a safe somewhere to play $25 a hand and survive? Anyone with that kind of money would have it tied up in real investments. My average investment return over the last 5 years has been about 10%. Who would give that up for a chance at a royal flush?

I suspect the vast majority of the people who visit this forum are small time players outside of Vegas looking to improve their 96-98% games. There may be a few dreamers, but they don't last long. Why don't we help those players instead of discussing games they can never play?

[billryan]

I dont believe anyone is an expert on every game. Why should they? Why does someone who knows good games bother learning strategy for bad games when they simply will never play them? If you think people are too old, too infirm and basically too stupid to play the games right, why not encourage them to take up pickle ball or shuffleboard? Even in the span of a single post, you declare VP is impossible for most 72 year olds, and end up suggesting we encourage them to play anyway.

[onemoretry]

If you only play positive video poker games 100% computer perfectly with an adequate bankroll, you will make a profit. Of that I have no doubt.

That's what "the math" predicts. But, you previously posted that you don't believe in such predictions, so how can you have no doubt?

[FloridaPhil]

If you think people are too old, too infirm and basically too stupid to play the games right, why not encourage them to take up pickle ball or shuffleboard? Even in the span of a single post, you declare VP is impossible for most 72 year olds, and end up suggesting we encourage them to play anyway.

I hate pickle ball and shuffleboard. I enjoy my days at the casino. Would you like to go with me tomorrow? I want to watch you tell all the seniors at the Hard Rock how stupid they are for playing negative VP games. Seriously?

What percent of the video poker games in the world are positive vs. negative? My guess is less than .1% are positive. Why do we spend so much time reading books and talking about how to profit playing VP when it's only possible on .1% of the games?

The players want to believe they can beat the casinos. The casinos want us to believe we can beat them too. It a symbiotic relationship. The casinos do everything they can to tempt us into running more money through their machines so we lose more. If they are so worried we are going to beat them, why do this?

We travel around the country to play VP. Most every time we return to a casino, we find the odds downgraded again. Vegas is no different. This is the way things are going. We need get out of the twenty year old time warp we are stuck in and move our discussions into the present day. Some day soon all the video poker games in the world will be 96% and the 96% games will be downgraded to 94%. Will we still be talking about the same things then?