Quad Harvesting

[FloridaPhil]

Yesterday something happened to me that has happened many times before. It's an interesting subject, so I thought the forum might like to discuss it.

Years ago, I played mostly Double Double Bonus. Like most Recreational Players, I enjoyed the thrill of the big jackpots. Eventually, I grew tired of the long losing streaks and the ever decreasing odds. When the game got to 7/5 and 8/5, I moved to Deuces Wild. Deuces still has the quad deuce mini jackpot, but the variance is much lower. Variance is important to me because I play 4-6 hours at a time and I want my money to last longer.

Back in my DDB days, I would notice that quads seem to come in spurts. Not always, but often. You can see this in any casino. Someone will get on a run of them and the bell will ring excessively. Numerous times I would watch these players. Often they will hit a good hand and leave the machine. When I saw that happen, I would move to their machine. Many times I would pick up where they left off. I have hit some great jackpots this way, some of them came with a W-2G.

Yesterday I started out playing Deuces Wild like I always do. The first couple of hours I fed 20s into the machine with no wild royals or even a five of a kind. Not that unusual. Suddenly, the machine dealt me a wild royal. Three hands later I hit a quad deuce for $250. I ran the ticket up to $300, cashed out and put it in my wallet. About 30 minutes later, the guy sitting next to me hit a string of quads playing DDB. When he hit a quad deuce with a kicker, he left the machine. I moved over and took his seat. I put in a $20 and played DDB myself. Quads were hitting all over the place. I hit 4 aces for $200 and 4-5 regular quads for $62.50 each. The machine finally cooled off and I walked away with a $300 profit. If anyone took my seat, I didn't notice.

I know these are random events. I also know they happen. Has anyone else ever done this?

[advantage playe]

the only thing due is the rent ! the only sure bets , known as locks ,are in the hardware store ! how many ways can I make that clear to you bob ?? from movie "what about bob" .

[FloridaPhil]

So can we assume you have never seen this happen?

[FloridaPhil]

Here's what I think. In any series of random events, there will be times when like events happen more frequently. This is often described as "luck". Luck can be both good and bad. A hot machine is a machine where more positive events occur in a given period of time than negative events. You can deny the existence of luck as well as hot and cold machines, but you can't deny they exist. If you doubt it, come to the casino with me next week. Someone playing DDB will hit a flurry of quads and everyone will look over.

The obvious question is, Can a player capitalize on luck to his/her advantage? The problem is you don't know luck until it's over. No one can predict in advance if a machine is going to be hot or cold. When I moved to that machine yesterday, there was no guarantee I would hit a quad. It cost me a couple of twenties to find out.

I am not in the casino beating business. Whatever I post on this forum comes from my own personal experience. Sometimes things happen that don't make sense. That's what random means.

[advantage playe]

please check independent trials definition ! 10 4 over and out !

[FloridaPhil]

please check independent trials definition ! 10 4 over and out !

What is an independent trial? ... For example, if you toss a coin fifty times, each coin toss is an independent trial, because the outcome of one toss (heads or tails) does not affect the likelihood of getting a heads or tails on the next toss.

Randomness is the lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination.

All of us have witnessed "hot machines". Nothing above says they can't exist. What it says is you can't predict them. Sometimes I wonder if it's the player not the machine that's hot?

[Jstark]

Correct that the machine has nothing to do with it. Timing is everything. Unfortunately, we can't predict the correct timing either.

[FloridaPhil]

Correct that the machine has nothing to do with it. Timing is everything. Unfortunately, we can't predict the correct timing either.

How true.

One time years ago I was playing in Winsor Canada at 2:00 AM in the morning. Don't ask me what I was doing there at 2 AM. It's a long story. I walked into the casino and sat down at a dollar video poker machine. I put in $100 and played DDB. I hit quad 4s right away. I turned around and there was a Triple Seven slot in front of me. I put in some money and hit a $300 jackpot. I cashed out and walked over to a Wheel of Fortune slot. I hit a $300 jackpot on that machine. My buddy tried to get into a poker game and there was a long wait. He came around he corner and told me he wanted to leave. I was good with that decision and left with $900 bucks in American money. The timing couldn't have been better.

[FAA]

I hit a flurry of JOB quads yesterday! I thought I was hallucinating. Three in 15 minutes on the same machine. Unfortunately, all mid quarter level. Heavy prior loss on dollar machines.

[rsactuary]

I've seen it happen.... and I've seen it not happen. That happens when things are random.