Does the past matter?

[stevel96a1]

your basically saying 60hour-80hour yard stick for measuring results is complete and utter rubbish?
results from winpoker 6 as follows 9/6 jacks ending result per bankroll per royal HIT(the cost to see a royal)

-3kcredits 55khands
-12.4kcredits 117khands
+4245credits 1.5khands
+4110credits 3.8khands
+355credits 35khands

reads as follows same machine (id sure like to be that guy who hits a royal on hand number 1500#)
check out that poor sap who lost -12k credits boy i hope hes just playing for fun

i really don't know how Winpoker 6 or IGT video poker RNG engine spits out the cards but i never seen
winpoker or frugal wolf video poker for that matter WIN more than 15k credits on a run of hand simulation lasting 50k-500k of hands

can someone win 30k playing 9/6 jacks on igt video poker? it just seems like makers of winpoker/frugal wolf may have made a mistake or thats just the cap and its math impossible to break 30k+ positive credits on a negative game

[FloridaPhil]

This has been a good discussion that may actually be of use to the average player. Video poker math is not calculating the trajectory to the moon. It's useful as an average estimate of probability. It always includes the possibility of a wide range of possibilities. The 40,000 hand royal cycle doesn't mean a royal will happen at that exact point. It provides a benchmark frequency calculated over an infinite number of hands and players.

When you state things like "This game is a positive opportunity", you lead some players to believe there is a guarantee and they start thinking a video poker machine is an ATM. An opportunity is "a set of circumstances that makes it possible to do something". That is an indicator, not a guarantee.

Video poker is gambling. Unless the casino is covering your losses or you are playing with someone else's money, there is risk involved. Some people beat the risk. Some people don't. Playing the best games computer perfect has been proven to give you a better chance of being in the first group. It does not punch your ticket as a winner.

What is being left out of this discussion is the effect comps and incentives have on your results. Professional players are masters of the game. They are also masters of the comp and incentive game. Put them both together with the right games, skill and resources and you can live a nice lifestyle playing video poker. Even with all those advantages, you will not be totally risk free.

I'm on my way to the Tampa Hard Rock. You have all day to make me seem like a bad guy. I don't disagree with Advantage Play strategy. I don't hate professional players. I don't hate anyone. As long as we acknowledge their is risk in gambling, I'm fine with it all.

[tech58]

Rock the Hard Rock FP, good luck.

[Waiting4RF]

"For the next hand, you will be dealt again from 1 of the 2598960 combination."

The VP stategy is based on getting dealt every one of those 2598960 hands one time. And your draw is based on every possibility happening one time. You add all those winning hand results and divide by the total hands to get the hand occurance averages.

The VP machines randomly deal the cards. They are not programmed to deal the next hand from the list of 2598960 possible dealt hands. Being dealt all 2598960 hands once and playing all the possible draw holds once according to the strategy is how you will get the exact averages.

My wife and I have played about the same number of VP hands. She had 3 dealt royals while I have none. Her most recent was 2 years ago.

[Jstark]

I have 3 myself. 1 in spades and 2 in diamonds.

Here's another oddity. I was DEALT A, 2, 3, 4, 5 straight flush TWICE before I ever even drew to a royal.

[Player422738]

I have 3 myself. 1 in spades and 2 in diamonds.

Here's another oddity. I was DEALT A, 2, 3, 4, 5 straight flush TWICE before I ever even drew to a royal.

This happened to me yesterday.
This is called the lower royal flush.
But I haven’t been dealt with a royal flush yet. I played at least 1M hands.

[stevel96a1]

so the past matters to blackjack players building "EV" (regardless win or lose) and past matters to FPDW players building "EV" but the past has no impact on my very next hand its all random event

is that part atleast correct?

you can forecast the long-term future with 80% accuracy but you can't forecast the short-term future?

[Player422738]

so the past matters to blackjack players building "EV" (regardless win or lose) and past matters to FPDW players building "EV" but the past has no impact on my very next hand its all random event

is that part atleast correct?

you can forecast the long-term future with 80% accuracy but you can't forecast the short-term future?

The past matters if previous hand has an impact on the next. The ultimate X is one of games that past matters. Because the multiplier has an impact on the return of the next hands. So on DDB if you are dealt with a full house with 3 aces, you have to decide to hold 3 aces or full house based on number of multipliers you get.

The past matters in Blackjack, that’s why the card counting works. However games like baccarat or roulette are not and they are complete random.

If you play a positive game, the longer you play the more likely you will win. For negative games, the longer the less likely. Avoid of using deterministic words.

After this 6-page long discussion and if you still can’t understand or can’t be convinced, then you are most likely ass. You should avoid of playing video poker at all.

[stevel96a1]

WHY are YOU taking so much offense to my ignorance and questioning the likes of gambling?
you don't like people asking questions or learning wow your like the idiots that Carl sagan spoke of "kids shouldn't ask questions and the typical reply is a smart ass remark" thats how you came off to this thread and if you don't like reading this thread simply do not reply what part if that is so hard to comprehend?

i am serious about digging deep into the math of gambling especially video poker i am sure people on here are as well im not trying to stir the pot but i would like to see more winning years than losing like all of us

i enjoy everything i read on this site and in books, the golden nuggets of wisdom to the utter nonsense,
the past does matter and effects the player's bankroll but as far as edge goes its standing still

[stevel96a1]

everything seems to be controlled by the math or by numbers for example 99.54 controls the frequency of winning and losing x amount of hands played per hour, random luck plays a HUGE part on your bankroll,
so my destiny is to lose until i land that big hand jackpot in which i can not predict nor control all i can do is( sit, play, patience , prepare to walk a loser, ) and everything will cancel out in the end? but what is the end? 5 winning years can be followed by 5 losing years? id rather stretch these sessions out per year than per day thats not good enough for me