Progressions is better than flat bettting?

[stevel96a1]

I think we can all agree that there are a number of highly educated, well financed teams out there.
I also think the fact that these knowledgeable, well financed teams ignore these things shows just how valuable they are.
Video poker, especially in Atlantic City, can't be beaten by altering your bet, unless you lower your bet to zero and never increase it.

im sure thats your opinion Bill, and im sure the people who won money year in and year out would disagree with you and im certain the jackpot winners would laugh at you, but again your welcome to your thoughts

[stevel96a1]

Steve, certainly you are welcome to believe anything you want. I'm certain that Mr. Koetsch knows how to program simple simulations. However, his interpretation or your understanding of those simulations may be in question. I do have to congratulate Mr. Koetsch on getting you to buy his book.

By suggesting only that there is something magical about a betting progression that will allow a maximum gain of 375 units from a buy-in of 100 units, one of those interpretations/understandings may need some work.

The 375 max win vs. a max win of 100 coins comes from the fact that the average coins bet per play with what Mr. Koetsch calls "geometric x3" is 3.75 vs. an average coin bet per play of only 1.00 with flat betting. The max win reported comes about because there are 100 plays, NOT because of a buy-in of 100 coins. With geometric x3 (or bets increasing from 1 to 2 on the first win, then 2 to 4, on the 2nd win, then from 4 to 8 on the 3rd win, then back to 1 on the 4th bet, regardless of whether or not you win, then continuing), your bets could be 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + ... + 1 + 2 + 4 +8 = 375. If you win each bet on this wager that pays even money for a win, that equates to the max possible win of 375.

Of course, the 3.75 average bet can only occur if you have 3 wins in a row 25 consecutive times. The odds of that occurring are quite small on a nearly even odds bet. And to win 375 coins, there have to be 100 consecutive wins. Of course a statistic that tells you what happens in an event that occurs only once in more than 633,825,300,114,115,000,000,000,000,000 trials is not likely to be very helpful to anyone's understanding of likely outcomes.

Is it a big surprise that you can win more coins if your average bet size is more? Maybe to some. Best of luck in your application of the new knowledge that you derived from Mr. Koetsch's book. I hope this investment will be profitable for you.

i purchased it used for 4$ off amazon, i do enjoy reading about gambling, problem is i have to read some of the filth people like Bill and Jstark like to mention, some of gambling books are backed by computer testing and others rubbish but again i enjoy it all >=)

[Jstark]

What filth? Obviously you just don't like the truth. I run into at least 5 different people per day in casinos with the same mind set as you. Whether it's machines or table games, all of them are losing gamblers. You'll be no different.

[stevel96a1]

Yep and thats filth negative. People who win the mega millions or powerball are far greater than you jstark. Playing a card counting bj game is losing? Winning the powerball is losing ? Again your words belong in the trash can jstark im not trying to be rude but do those players you mention have 3 winning years? Have they tried card counting? Have they won the mega millions? Its worthless talking to you you fail to see the world the way it is. If you believe im going to the casino every day or taking 100% of my bank account to the casino you are out of your ever loving skull.

[onemoretry]

We should not lose sight of the fact that this poster considers Florida Phil to be a superior source of video poker information.

[Jstark]

Yep and thats filth negative. People who win the mega millions or powerball are far greater than you jstark. Playing a card counting bj game is losing? Winning the powerball is losing ? Again your words belong in the trash can jstark im not trying to be rude but do those players you mention have 3 winning years? Have they tried card counting? Have they won the mega millions? Its worthless talking to you you fail to see the world the way it is. If you believe im going to the casino every day or taking 100% of my bank account to the casino you are out of your ever loving skull.

Where did I say card counting is losing? Where did I say you should take 100% of your bank account? Yeah, the lottery is a loser. 1 winner from MILLIONS of losers is NOT winning. Seriously, you need to step back and face reality. You think you can make a living on negative EV games with a betting system. I'm telling you, you won't. Now if you have any edge, and played properly, you should win and make money. If your goal is to just "get lucky", go for it. But I'd suggest otherwise.

[stevel96a1]

Im cataloging gambling is gambling. Card counting. Positive vp or lotto even the author said you can be the smartest guy in the world you still need to risk money and for me i dont care if your bob dancer or ken uston you still need to put up risk im not saying progressions is the answer but i am saying you need to risk in order to win and id rather be a lotto winner and retire than grind away at a 1% edge

[billryan]

You have to admire his sticktoitism.

[stevel96a1]

You sure made it sound like i play neg games each day or bring bank accounts to the casino the way you talk and i know countless lifetime losers who took up bj and failed at counting so much for the 1%

[rascal]

steve96a1, clarify for me, please: You truly believe that playing the lottery is going to make you a winner? There is an excellent definition of the lottery: "It's a tax on people who are extremely bad at math."