The road never traveled...

[stevel96a1]

lately i been thinking about other games of choice in casinos such as blackjack or live poker.
i spent a good solid 2 years playing around with blackjack from reading every book thats creditable to trying out different blackjack engines written back in the 80s software from today.
losing 14 max bets within 1 or two shoes in 8 deck game can happen right away stepping up to the plate
14 x the full blown 10 spread means you are out easy 1400$+ cash , followed by a tap to the shoulder by the pit bull boss which is why 2 reasons i steer clear from the game. however this theory is challenged from what i read on other forums on how people rip out 100s of thousands of dollars from the casino in counting cards. now the question remains which is it? will i lose alot of money followed by a tap? or will i go on a forever win streak? both realites can not exist in the same location not at all.

are there any card counters out there went from BJ to VP or VP to BJ? if so id love to hear your stories

[Gronbog]

Counting cards in blackjack will have its ups and downs just like any other AP pursuit. The difference between card counting blackjack and most video poker plays is that, with VP, you typically find an edge and grind it out with the same bet through repetition. In blackjack, the (dis)advantage is constantly changing and you vary your bet with your advantage in order to generate the edge. However, the variance doesn't disappear just because you have a higher advantage. What this means is that you will have both your biggest wins and your biggest losses while betting big with an advantage, simply because you're betting more.

Other than that, the underlying math is essentially the same. Play long enough and you will get the predicted results. On that topic, the long run comes more quickly in terms of hands played in blackjack, with N0 (N-zero) for a decent game being in the 20k range where for VP it can be in the hundreds of thousands or even the millions. This is because variance for VP is much higher than blackjack. The variance of many VP games is over 20 whereas the variance for a single hand of blackjack is typically around 1.3 and the global variance for an optimal betting ramp is around 4 relative to your average bet.

As with all AP, you need to be properly bankrolled in order not to be bothered by the inevitable swings. It doesn't matter whether a down turn happens right at the beginning or somewhere in the middle of your career. They will happen at some point. There is no "forever win streak".

You also need to be able to play long enough to realize your advantage. This is another big difference. Blackjack is much more closely watched for advantage players. You can't sit and play for hours at the same table. You need to keep moving so as not to give them a chance to evaluate your play. And by moving I don't mean to another table or another pit.

Counting cards is easy for a relatively intelligent person. Getting away with it for a long time is not. Players who make a career out of card counting inevitably end up on the road as they wear out their welcome. However, as a recreational counter, you can win small amounts at your local casinos provided that you maintain a low profile and don't give them a reason to have to deal with you. On vacation, you can win enough to subsidize the cost of your trip, sometimes paying for it completely. It's also relatively easy to play a break-even game and enjoy the comps.

I guess the bottom line is that card counting blackjack is part art and part science. The more money you try to win, the more effort you will need to make and the more ingenuity you will need in order to keep playing. For the average person, it's a decent way to make a small profit, or at least not to lose, while enjoying the game. If you intend to try to win big or to make a living doing it, be prepared for a lonely life on the road while playing in hostile conditions. The casinos do not like to give up their money without a fight!

[Gronbog]

As for my actual story with card counting, I have been counting blackjack part time at green chip stakes for about 25 years. I've made money over the years, an amount that supplements my lifestyle nicely, and my experience has been similar to that of the recreational counter I described above.

I have been watched while playing many times but have only been backed off once. I didn't realize at the time that a 1-10 spread on a double deck game was excessive. I'm sure that the other times they knew that I was counting, but I didn't stay long enough for them to need to bother with me. In, out and forgotten is the way to go.

[stevel96a1]

So the answer I seek is yes I can rip out 10s of thousands of dollars in 1 gaming house and yes they can shuffle up on me whenever they see fit? I'm afraid to try to lose 2 grand followed by a back off that doesn't help anyone

[Gronbog]

Regardless of your level of play, you will always need many casinos to play in order to remain unnoticed or to continue playing after a back off. A back off is a setback, but is not the end of the road.

It's sounding like your goal is to win big money. You won't be able to do that without constantly traveling.

[stevel96a1]

i would like to walk in a gaming house and pull up a chair and grind away much like video poker w/o being stopped making money, i wonder if i try this at atlantic city gaming houses day after day and week after week , one day the dealer will say i can't deal to you (or just shuffle up on me after each hand or flat bet me) and im flyered through out ac so whats the point if im remotely successful vs if i flop right off the bat ending result is dismal at best

[stevel96a1]

If im not constantly traveling i will be backed off?? So i need to be a nomad quit my job and live in an rv like that guy in the movie inside the edge?

[Gronbog]

If you plan on trying to "rip 10s of thousands of dollars", then almost certainly yes.

[stevel96a1]

i just see myself waltizin in 1 of the gaming houses in AC saying hi to Johnny how ya doin? blah blah (my 3rd week here) and the pit boss comes around taps me on the shoulder and says we know what your doing and kindly asked me to leave. now im waiting for the bus back home ready to target the gaming houses in pennysvlania so i can live for 2-4 weeks and story ends the same? and i lose all my winnings due to variance and im banned from all casinos? i really dont see how this story ends well for the average joe is not mobile or does have access to basically unlmited money in my opinion

Thanks so much Gronbog you helped answer my reality
there is a guy that played early 2000 named Kewljason and beated up the casinos for years on end how the casino did not stop his play is beyond my comprehension seeing how everything is tracked starting in the 90s agains thanks for your information Gronbog

[advantage playe]

ac cant make u leave by law . but they can make your limit to the minum !!!! still cant spell !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!