strategy to play on negative video poker & win a little

[olds442jetaway]

Yep. If could ever learn to hit and run, I would be ahead long term

[olds442jetaway]

As to the RNG situations on the newer machines, we will never know. I am just speaking from playing maybe between 25 and 30 million lifetime video poker hands.

[Gronbog]

Yep. If could ever learn to hit and run, I would be ahead long term

No, you wouldn't.

[olds442jetaway]

Yep I keep track of it. I’m ahead at some point nearly every session. Don’t forget, I play a version of Martingale I also have a shut down point. If I add up the max I was ahead for a session, and subtract from that all of the sessions that busted for arguments sake 500 bucks per bust, I would be ahead by a mile.

[Gronbog]

Not if you've played 25 million hands as you claim. Im not going to try to convince you. But I just can't let misinformation like that go unchallenged.

For new players reading this, know that selective stopping points have no effect on your long term results. And while individual Martingale sequences have a high chance of success for a small win, eventually one or more catastrophic losses will negate all of those small wins and more.

Over time you will lose the amount if your coin in minus the return of the game. No stopping or betting strategy can change that.

[olds442jetaway]

Proof is in the pudding. That is all I am going to say except that without a shutdown point even a mild Martingale strategy will fail

[New2vp]

Yep I keep track of it. I’m ahead at some point nearly every session. Don’t forget, I play a version of Martingale I also have a shut down point. If I add up the max I was ahead for a session, and subtract from that all of the sessions that busted for arguments sake 500 bucks per bust, I would be ahead by a mile.

Hey olds, don't beat yourself up about not quitting when you are at your max point. I have no doubt that what you wrote here is correct. But unless you have a time machine, you will never be able always to quit when you are at your max point because you never know whether the hand right after (or two hands after or three after) a suspected max will add even further to your winnings for that evening.

In those situations when you win your first hand, but are destined to go on a poor run and never again get your head above water, is it realistic to expect that you would end after your first hand? I shouldn't have asked that question, because I know that it isn't. How about your 2nd hand? Or your 3rd hand?

So what would be reasonable? Well, you might set a dollar amount, a certain amount to be ahead, or a number of hands, or some combination of both. When you do that, then you could exercise discipline to stick to this plan. And such a plan could theoretically be evaluated for perfect play or for nonperfect play if you were consistent in your strategy deviations. Some random error rate could even be included to take into account our human frailties. And there is no reason that you couldn't have a changing bet size based on your remaining session bankroll as you have described here over the years.

I admit that the math would be complicated and beyond the grasp for most. However, one would be able to determine, given the game, the bankroll, and stopping points, an exact distribution of the number of hands that one would play in each session with associated probabilities. Plus an exact distribution of the number of coins won and lost, again along with associated probabilities. The fun of gambling is that we would not know what those totals will be for one night or even for 365 evenings (or 366 in 2020!!).

While we wouldn't know what your exact results would be, we would know that the expected value would be a loss if you were playing negative machines and a higher loss if we factored in idiosyncratic rather than perfect play and errors.

Trying to quit when you reach your max for the evening may seem like a reasonable goal, but it is logically beyond our realistic grasp. But you could look through your records and try and determine what time and money goals you could be happy with. Then try to stick to that particular level of discipline.

Have a great Christmas, New Years, and a profitable 2020!!

[olds442jetaway]

Thanks. Over the years, it seems to me that when I’m ahead somewhere between 10 and 20 percent of bankroll would be a good time to quit. I often can hit 50 percent, then the dud streaks seem to take over. So hard to quit when one enjoys the game. Next time I get up near 40 or 50 percent, I’m going to switch to a low denomination game. That should keep things in order pretty well for the rest of the trip.

[New2vp]

So hard to quit when one enjoys the game.

I hear you and I have experienced the same emotions. That is why I would suggest a limit on BOTH % up or length of session whatever comes first. The temptation when you have gotten up early, say 800 coins, is to play for a little longer. Inevitably, you drain down to 600, then 500. And you say to yourself, I will quit when I get back to 800. And of course often that doesn't happen. And you may even lose more than normal because you won't be happy with a measly 100-coin gain for that evening. Sure, once in a while you surpass the previous max. But what happens when you get to 795 and the drain starts again? Try and remove the self-loathing when that happens.

Easier to say than do, but stop after a predetermined certain number of hands. Or after you've lost a certain amount of your previous max. None of this will turn a negative expectation positive, but it is easier to deal with realistic expectations than unrealistic ones.

[FAA]

That happened today. I wasn’t happy with my fast hundred coin gain at Bally’s. I had to recoup most of the morning’s $80 Trop drop. So, I lost the hundred coins over the next seventy minutes. Needed a quad just to break even. Walk of shame back to Trop.