transition to .25 to 1$

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Jstark
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Re: transition to .25 to 1$

Post by Jstark »

hophoofer wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:04 pm
There are couple of points mentioned by JS are incorrect.

1. Baccarat house edge is about 1% while roulette is about 5%.
2. Both games are random. No strategy is needed.
3. Baccarat’s side bets are all sucker bets.
4. The chance of winning roulette red/black bet is 47.4% on 00 version; Baccarat odds for a Player hand to win are 44.62%. The chances that the Player hand will lose is 45.85%. So betting baccarat does NOT give you more chance to win.

Sure, but dont confuse "house edge" with "probability of winning"

Mega-Millions jackpot could be $2 billion with you the only one to purchase one ticket. At that point, the bet is +EV but the probability of winning is still next to nil.


Thanks Gron...

stevel96a1
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Post by stevel96a1 »

Tedlark wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:51 pm
Gronbog wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:31 pm
The question is whether you stand a better chance of winning a $1000 bet before losing it at blackjack vs baccarat vs roulette.
I thought the question was: "does everyone just dive right into 1$ dollar play? or grind it up slowly?"

steve96a1 made 2 follow up posts on topic while it was transitioning away from topic. This is a perfect example of how forum topics break away from the original topic.
well i can't imagine going up the reward desk or pit boss and say" im gonna bet a cool thousand and i want comped" no indeed im gonna play VP w/ that thousand but 1,000 credits can last a chunk of time and be doubled while 4,000 credits can last for days maybe longer if you keep hitting, i guess theres a short answer and a long answer one can double right away like i did last week and one could lose 1,000$ as i did many weeks ago, the problem is i dont know which method would out last one vs the other

playing short and sweet could turn to short and sour
or playing long can keep hitting jackpots maybe even 5 standard deviations into the gambling theories

still though very hard to see a royal flush any given day.

Player422738
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Posts: 516
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:05 pm

Post by Player422738 »

Jstark wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:42 pm
hophoofer wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:04 pm
There are couple of points mentioned by JS are incorrect.

1. Baccarat house edge is about 1% while roulette is about 5%.
2. Both games are random. No strategy is needed.
3. Baccarat’s side bets are all sucker bets.
4. The chance of winning roulette red/black bet is 47.4% on 00 version; Baccarat odds for a Player hand to win are 44.62%. The chances that the Player hand will lose is 45.85%. So betting baccarat does NOT give you more chance to win.

Sure, but dont confuse "house edge" with "probability of winning"

Mega-Millions jackpot could be $2 billion with you the only one to purchase one ticket. At that point, the bet is +EV but the probability of winning is still next to nil.


Thanks Gron...
I didn't.

1, 2, 3 are about house edge, 4 is prob of winning. Read it again.

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

But your conclusion was incorrect because what you want us the probability of winning before you lose.

Jstark
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Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 10:16 pm

Post by Jstark »

Gronbog wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:40 am
But your conclusion was incorrect because what you want us the probability of winning before you lose.
Exactly. Given $1000 and the want to double it quickly, one $1000 bet at baccarat is the best alternative.

At vp? Go find a $500 machine and bet 2 credits on JoB is my best guess and hope for 2 pair.

tech58
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Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 1:21 pm

Post by tech58 »

Gronbog wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:03 pm
Fair enough regarding the original post. However, the question was raised and some speculation ensued. Hopefully my answer will serve to end that tangent.
Your answer certainly does. The math explained the diff. between house edge and probability of winning very clearly. Thanks. :up:
Sorry for participating in the digression. :ouch: I did not start it, but what i learned was worth a few lashes. :up:

FAA
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Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am

Post by FAA »

Why transition at all? I play $1 on a very limited basis for my "pot shots" at the end of a trip. I would never work my way up to playing that amount all the time. Especially on negative machines. Quarters is just fine with me. You can win a thousand bucks and you don't have the same tax concerns.
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This is such a sensible post. I've started at fifty lately and regretted it half the time. You do build comps a lot faster. I like the adjustable JOB ten coin quarter system; slide in and out of $2.50 wagers. Last ten minutes of a trip, and I mean ten, is when you should shoot the moon.

stevel96a1
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Joined: Sun May 07, 2017 5:52 am

Post by stevel96a1 »

Jstark wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:01 am
Gronbog wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:40 am
But your conclusion was incorrect because what you want us the probability of winning before you lose.
Exactly. Given $1000 and the want to double it quickly, one $1000 bet at baccarat is the best alternative.

At vp? Go find a $500 machine and bet 2 credits on JoB is my best guess and hope for 2 pair.
i thought about that like most people but i couldnt stomach the loss in 2 blinks of an eye

Player422738
VP Veteran
Posts: 516
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:05 pm

Post by Player422738 »

stevel96a1 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:16 pm
Jstark wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:01 am
Gronbog wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:40 am
But your conclusion was incorrect because what you want us the probability of winning before you lose.
Exactly. Given $1000 and the want to double it quickly, one $1000 bet at baccarat is the best alternative.

At vp? Go find a $500 machine and bet 2 credits on JoB is my best guess and hope for 2 pair.
i thought about that like most people but i couldnt stomach the loss in 2 blinks of an eye
If you live close to AC and want to play VP seriously, you can try the following 2 games in AC. They are the best.

1. Caesars: double joker with progressive royal flush staring at 8000 credits. It’s quarter machine. Payback is 99.9x%.

2. Ocean casino: full pay joker (2 pair) in high limit. Dollar machine or above. Payback is 99.9x% too.

Bally’s has bonus poker with progressive, it’s positive when meters are high enough.

These 2 games may be positive with casino benefits, otherwise you won’t lose too much. Unfortunately, joker pokers are very hard to play correctly.

FAA
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Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am

Post by FAA »

I would be interested in Bally’s VP Progressive. Where? Haven’t paid attention!

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