Common Sense vs. An "Educated" Guess

[New2vp]

Webman can shut you and rascal and anyone else here up by confirming (as he did months ago) that I am actually Joe Carter and NOT Fa La La La La.... La la la la.  Rolanddude is and has been my AOL screen name since AOL's existence (back in the 2400 bps days).  I was an online "question answerer" for Roland Musical Instruments regarding their keyboards.  Now I have a store full of Roland pianos, organs, and keyboards.   The information is easy to find online.  Just search Showtime Music Center or use the dealer locator on RolandUS.com.Have a good trip.  Hope you can touch base with Fa La La La La.... La la la la while you're out there.  Maybe you can get a picture with him to post on the site.Why are you so obsessed that some here believe you are Fa La La La La.... La la la la anyway?  Are any of your views more valid if you are not Fa La La La La.... La la la la?  If you were actually Fa La La La La.... La la la la, I could see why you would be concerned about being found out, since he's supposed to be banned from posting here...and if he's praising himself, that might seem a bit narcissistic.  Fa La La La La.... La la la la would have a motive in NOT being found out.But if you are not Fa La La La La.... La la la la and you don't have this great friendship connection with him, since you've only met a couple of times, why do you care SO MUCH who anyone thinks you are?Do you think that if it is confirmed that there are two different bodies sharing these theories, people like me would say, "Well, we were wrong; we need to go back and resurrect all those posts, string them together, and make a new VP bible. They make a lot of sense now that we know that r-dude is not Fa La La La La.... La la la la."?If it makes you feel any better, my real name is not actually New2vp.   I know, you're shocked!   And if you wanted to start a rumor that I'm really Old2vp or New3vp in disguise, it probably wouldn't "rattle my world" much ( using a phrase that both Fa La La La La.... La la la la and r-dude seem to like) or change the validity of my posts.
I will be older and wiser then...My Big 40 is next week. As your are, looking forward to your new found wisdom and application thereof.  Best of luck. EDIT:  Sorry cd, didn't mean to step on your idea.  To others:  Really, cd and I did not coordinate this.  I guess we just got to wondering the same thing and as usual, cd put the thought in fewer words.

[cddenver]

EDIT:  Sorry cd, didn't mean to step on your idea.  To others:  Really, cd and I did not coordinate this.  I guess we just got to wondering the same thing and as usual, cd put the thought in fewer words.

 
Oh, it doesn't bother me.  Great minds think alike.  In fact, I just came back here to edit my own post and saw that you'd said what I was going to add to my post. 

[damule]

Fa La La La La.... La la la la....oops, I mean Roland.....that's not plain Southern talk. That may be the way they talk in Phoenix or in bankruptcy court, but that's not plain Southern talk, ok? This from a native of South Mississippi who still owns property there.
rascal,
 
Fa La La La La.... La la la la's not the only person who resides outside of Phoenix. There are some advantage players here too .

[Eduardo]

  Lots of important values can be learned from this "pamphlet" called Common Sense; Not about Video Poker, I grant you, but about ways to approach any endeavor.  A person can only better themselves by opening their eyes up to different solutions to age old problems rather than being boxed in by preconceived notions.  Take it from me.







 Mercy, my sides actually hurt laughing here tonight.

[anthonywilis]

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[ukaserex]

I think using common sense is wise.

But - let us consider what's common.

Given the math, is it a use of common sense that leads us to a casino in the first place?

The mind is a tricky mistress. (or mister).

We think it does things a certain way, but we've really barely a clue as to how it really works. It amazes me how I can talk myself into foolish things, like going to a casino!

"The only way to win is not to play" - Joshua, War Games

I think there are too many variables to assess in the scenario the OP gives.

1. We must first define success.

If success is the winning of a certain number of credits, depending on how many, there's no indication of how many (or few) hands that might take.

So, what do we attribute the success to? Only playing a certain number of hands, or stopping when that magical winning of a specific number of credits occurs?

No matter what your strategy when you sit down, you must make certain decisions. 1 coin? max coin? a varying number of credits per hand?

It is generally accepted that an "advantage" player, or "educated" in this post, will play max-coins each hand.

But, there are other things an educated player will do/plan for that the common sense player may not.

Bank roll - one would think common sense would suggest that we not risk our rent/mortgage money on video poker. Yet, I wonder, how often does this occur among people who are thought to be intelligent, or even college-educated with an above average IQ? Given the sheer number and size of casinos, my guess is more than we'd like to think!

The "educated player" would suggest you have 3x royal flush pay out before you think about sitting down. At least 2x!

I've never had that in my "bankroll". I've had it in my bank, but I'd never risk 12k on video poker! That's lunacy to this son of an economist! Put that money in a Roth - it'll be there in an emergency. A real emergency, not "I wanna go to Vegas and pretend to be Bob Dancer". (I could never pretend to be Bob; I can't dance and I'm not disciplined or smart enough on a consistent basis.

Sitting at home, typing this out, I am considering myself more than adequately disciplined - but get me fatigued, or bored - that discipline tapers off pretty quickly.

The actual playing -

There are many different strategies. Some will get Ad,Kd,Qd. JS, 4d
and play that hand for the Royal, some for the flush and some even for the straight, foolishly thinking that because it pays less, it's easier to get.

The "educated" player has one play he'll pick every time with that scenario.

The common sense player may play that a couple or three different ways, depending on how well/poorly they've been playing up to that point.

There is the "right" play and the "right play for you".

It all depends on why you play. Identify that first and go from there.

[billryan]

Playing a game with a bad paytable is bad.
Playing a game with a bad payable and then playing it badly is worse.
Changing the way you play based on what has happened in prior hands is superstitious voodoo.
Let's say you hit five straights in a short run. You are dealt Q,T,9,8 in JOB. Do you stop to think that straights are running hot today, or do you think that you've already hit far more than the number of straights you can expect?
If either of those thoughts are entertained, you are a superstitious player bound to lose in the long run.
If playing perfect strategy results in a negative expectation, how in the world will playing an imperfect strategy give better results? How is choosing bad options
Common Sense?

[Webman]

Hard to believe this was started almost 8 years ago.

[Tedlark]

Not only was I looking at the dates but I was looking at the authors of some of the posts too. R.I.P. Chris.