Common Sense vs. An "Educated" Guess

[rolanddude]

Post unable to migrate

[oej719]

Is it raining there joe joe? Dry here. What is the forecast for Thursday?

[rolanddude]

OEJ,I am starting a meaningful debate here.  Don't bring it down to your level.Shadowman suggested that this topic cannot be addressed enough.  Maybe for once it can stay on topic if Webman could somehow control the riff raff...

[oej719]

I hope you are around next time I launch my boat.
Write us another happy song. I am not riff or raff.
Just rich and wise.

[rolanddude]

Oej,You do remind me a little bit of some sailor type....hmmmm oh yeah... of course... You remind me of that bumbling idiot Gilligan....Little Buddy!Pretend you are the professor and give us some educated insight on this topic!!!!!

[New2vp]

OEJ,I am starting a meaningful debate here.  Don't bring it down to your level.Shadowman suggested that this topic cannot be addressed enough.  Maybe for once it can stay on topic if Webman could somehow control the riff raff... Interesting arguing technique.  When you have lost the match and can no longer refute points, run and hide a while...or start a new thread.Please don't whine any more about coming here to learn something.  You've demonstrated an amazing capacity not to be able to learn anything new, no matter what facts emerge.Have I learned anything?  Yes, that there is little point in reading your future posts.It appears that the pool of those you hope to convince has dwindled down to you and Fa La La La La.... La la la la.  Whether that is a population of one or two really doesn't mean a lot; it's probably not enough of a target audience to make it profitable for someone to publish a future book, or even a future column, or, for that matter, a future post on the Web; and maybe not even enough for anyone to issue a serious challenge in the future similar to Webman's flipover challenge.Most already know it's not a way to profit from video poker machines.  Time to kick back and retire on your assets, I guess.Best of luck; that appears to be all you have going for you. 

[Deloradeuces18]

Holy **** nobody in their right mind could wade through all of what you just wrote. I hope it didn't take too long to write it.

Now it's not only the weather, but boat ramps too. This strategy sounds amazing.

[rolanddude]

AMAZING!!!New2vp had nothing to say to try and refute anything I said.  (because it would make no sense)  Instead he says I am running and hiding...wha?  I started a new thread about this instead of continually posting on the 5th card thread.  It made COMMON SENSE to me to do so.  I thought you of all people would be anxious to debate your stance of being educated beyond common sense!  I guess you really are since you didn't think that starting a new thread made any sense...Delora,What do boat ramps have to do with anything I said about my strategy?  Are you not able to comprehend what I wrote?  To answer your question over on the other thread...Making a pot shot bet on craps for the big payouts is a one roll bet.  The rest of the bets are all against or with a seven appearing.  A seven has a 1 in 6 chance of happening every roll.   There are 36 possible outcomes.  Video Poker has a vastly greater amount of outcomes possible.  It is much easier to identify hot and cold trends and much easier to recoup your losses.  Take your time and read through my opening post.   You can do it!

[Eduardo]

Rolan what you are calling an educated guess is no more than a hunch.
 
Here is my example. I usually play deuces which is low variance. Sometimes I will notive that I have gone a logn time (and i mean a loooong) time without a natural (no widls) quad hit. So my instincts say taht if that quad is going to come, I might as well be playing ddb!  So on a few trips I have actually switched over at these times. Unfortunately for me, each of these trips and turned out to be my worst, simply because I burned through more money playing DDB than a quad would end up earning me and the quad did not come before then.
 
There is nothing "wrong" with playing using the betting approach you outline as long as you stay within your bankroll and don't make any risky plays based on the hunches. But it is also not a path to success. It is just reaching a conclusion sooner by increasing your variance and potential win amount. Nothing special.
 
I have no problem with you playing this way, but I don't think it's the right way for most people to play and certainly has no advantage over just playing the same amount.

[rolanddude]

Eduardo,A quad is way too far up the volatility scale to be gauging a trend on.  Instead...play a game that pays 2 to 1 for two pair and 3 to 1 for trips.  Keep track of cold streaks by only tracking hands played without getting a trip or higher with a modest amount of two pair winners happening along the way.  If you find yourself in the scenario I have described...Exploit it.  However, do not misinterpret a cold streak by not noticing how many two pair winners you get.  At a 2 to 1 payout you can end up treading water most of the time through "luke-warm" stretches.  In these cases you just ride it out and hope to profit without changing denoms right away.