Common Sense vs. An "Educated" Guess

[rolanddude]

Delora,Thank you!  I'm glad you have been entertained.New2vp,Lots of important values can be learned from this "pamphlet" called Common Sense; Not about Video Poker, I grant you, but about ways to approach any endeavor.  A person can only better themselves by opening their eyes up to different solutions to age old problems rather than being boxed in by preconceived notions.  Take it from .All of our jiberish boils down to this...Correct holds derived from "perfect" strategy are at best "educated guesses" that guarantee nothing.  When playing these recommended holds you can expect less variance from the norm than by not playing them.  Adding a "little" common sense to your betting style might pay off bigger rewards.  This too is just an "educated guess"!  Agreed?

[Eduardo]

New2vp,
Lots of important values can be learned from this "pamphlet" called Common Sense; Not about Video Poker, I grant you, but about ways to approach any endeavor.  A person can only better themselves by opening their eyes up to different solutions to age old problems rather than being boxed in by preconceived notions. 


 
It's when you sy stuff like this that you come across as someone like Fa La La La La.... La la la la. It adds nothing to any video poker strategy and uses things other than mathematics to try and sway people's opinion.
 
It is okay to test new theories and think outside the box. But in the end no strategy is going to be a smart one unless it is tested mathematically. Without that you are talking emotions and guesses based on limited results and examples.
 
Fa La La La La.... La la la la always likes to derail losing arguments by picking on something like someone's ability to think outside the box. You are doing the same thing here with new2vp. He is making logical arguments and you are focusing on philosophy instead of video poker. It's silly. Stick to the point or forget it.
 
You can't convince people that a strategy is any better simply by encouraging them to use more "common sense." You have to prove that it is common sense by showing that there are reasonable expectations of results by using a strategy. That includes both the positive and negative sides of it.
 
So stop going off topic and acting like you are winning any sort of argument when you share something that is not a genuine analysis.

[oej719]

This pianoboy guy is no doubt Fa La La La La.... La la la la himself. He is fooling no one. Now if webman will can his butt.
Looks like joe would not know a good deal if he saw it.

Cool Oejdude

[Eduardo]

Yeah, and the only other way rolan thinks he will "win" is by saying haha oej, I am NOT Fa La La La La.... La la la la and I can prove it. Which again says absolutely nothing about this strategy.

[oej719]

The only thing Fa La La La La.... La la la la proved to me is that he sure can drink. I give him the fake gold medal for that.
He also takes first place for envy and telling false stories(ex:lies).

I got in touch with the guy from michigan and he says rd is a putz and double putz.

[cddenver]

Yeah, and the only other way rolan thinks he will "win" is by saying haha oej, I am NOT Fa La La La La.... La la la la and I can prove it. Which again says absolutely nothing about this strategy.


 
Yes, it really doesn't matter one way or the other who's presenting the strategy.
 

[New2vp]

All of our jiberish boils down to this...Correct holds derived from "perfect" strategy are at best "educated guesses" that guarantee nothing.  When playing these recommended holds you can expect less variance from the norm than by not playing them.  Adding a "little" common sense to your betting style might pay off bigger rewards.  This too is just an "educated guess"!  Agreed?
See, here again is where it might have been better for you to say, "Oh, I see.  That makes sense!" ("common" or otherwise) instead of trying to pretend to salvage a point.At the risk of seeming pedantic (or perhaps arrogant to some), I'll offer the following corrections:Generally optimal strategy in making the correct holds increases expected value not variance.  For example, in full pay Double Bonus when you hold trip aces instead of the full house when dealt A`AeAcKeK`, you are making the play that most experts say is right, but it's much riskier rather than just holding the full house and taking the certain 50 coins.  Here holding trip aces increases expected value and increases variance; it doesn't decrease variance.Holding 2 pair instead of a pair of aces from A`AeKcKeQ` in the same game again increases the expected value but this time 2 pair is the lower variance hold as well, while some might prefer to hold only the aces to try for the big quad jackpot.Often when holds are designed to go after the bigger jackpots in straight flushes, quads, or royal flushes, the result is larger variance not smaller variance, even if they are the result of going after increased expected value.  So, in general, making optimal holds increases expected value but does not consider variance.Now, many of Fa La La La La.... La la la la's special plays DO increase variance at the expense of expected value.  Now, before getting all defensive, I didn't say that was bad; it's just a fact.And changing your betting size during play (whether or not it's common sense) will also increase your variance over a betting style that uniformly bets an average amount.  I'm not surprised that you made this error because few people can determine variance of different holds just by using common sense.I can agree with you when you play video poker, you are guaranteed nothing...except some entertainment if you like to play.  That's why it's called gambling.But here's some common sense advice for you before you make your next post if you do not want someone to point out further errors."When in a hole that is over your head, the first rule is:   STOP DIGGING!"This may not get you out of the hole, but it does prevent you from getting in deeper.

[rolanddude]

 
Generally optimal strategy in making the correct holds increases expected value not variance. 

OK new2vp...
 
Let me try to put what I said into plain Southern talk...
 
If you play all hands correctly then it will probably take longer to lose your ass than by not playing correctly.
 
Is that better?  I hope that now you can focus on the main theme instead of parsing words and making a long analytical example from a game (DDB) that I have not even recommended playing this way.  Your example has nothing to do with the meaning of my statement...it only shows an example of how variance changes with EV when you...blah blah blah...  New we all already know that you can put things into a "scientifical" (do you like that word oej) perspective.  Don't make this more complicated than it has to be....spare us.    

[oej719]

Somebody musta gave him a wedgie.

[rascal]

Fa La La La La.... La la la la....oops, I mean Roland.....that's not plain Southern talk. That may be the way they talk in Phoenix or in bankruptcy court, but that's not plain Southern talk, ok? This from a native of South Mississippi who still owns property there.