strategy question for anyone?

[MikeA]

Definitions 101.
 
This whole topic is one based on "variance" far more than the Expected Return.  How much are you willing to risk in order to hit that "big one?" 
 
Variance defines the swings...the deviation from the Expected Return that you will endure while playing the different variations of Video Poker.  Those swing probabilities are expressed mathematically in terms of Standard Deviation or Variance.  Don't get confused by those numbers.  Variance is just Standard Deviation "squared".  For example, Deviation for full pay Jacks or Better is 4.4.175 and the Variance is 4.4175*4.4175 or 19.5147.
 
The difference between Jacks or Better and Double Double Bonus is the difference between a Variance of 19.5147 in JOB compared to  42.1765 for DDB.
 
Obviously, the "swing" in winning and losing sessions is going to be over twice as much for the DDB player. 
 
So, with a low end variance for JOB at 19.51 and DDB at 42.1765 at the other end of the spectrum, what are the options? 
 
Double Bonus comes in at 28.255.
 
Bonus Poker is 20.9041.
 
Triple Bonus is a whopping 45.256.
 
White Hot Aces is 43.7328.
 
Playing less than perfect strategy for the game selected will certainly impact negatively the Expected Return and will also impact the Variance factor. 
 
It seems ironic in a way that playing against poorer paytables has a large impact on Expected Return (obviously) but to a much less degree, it also slightly impacts the variance.  That is assuming that you adjust your strategy to maximize your return as you condescend to play poorer paytables.
 
Case in fact:  I play at AmeriStar more than anywhere else.  I do not think there is a poker machine in that casino that is "full pay" in any of the variations of VP.  DDB at the 25c level pays 9/5.  At the nickel level, it pays 6/5.
 
Now, given that sort of machine, which would YOU play if you had to stretch your bankroll as far as possible?  In both cases you are playing a losing game.  Personally, I elected to play Blackjack!
 
 

[shadowman]

Case in fact:  I play at AmeriStar more than anywhere else.  I do not think there is a poker machine in that casino that is "full pay" in any of the variations of VP.  DDB at the 25c level pays 9/5.  At the nickel level, it pays 6/5.
 
Now, given that sort of machine, which would YOU play if you had to stretch your bankroll as far as possible?  In both cases you are playing a losing game.  Personally, I elected to play Blackjack! 
 
I'd play Blackjack too. It usually pays back better around 99.5% for most situations assuming good adherence to basic strategy.
 
By the way, which Ameristar do you play at? The Vpfree database lists better games than you did. I've been to the one in Council Bluffs and played the 9-6 DDB progressive a couple of years ago, but have not been to St Louis or KC (where other casinos have better games anyway-particularly AA). Or, is there another Ameristar?
 

[MikeA]

I play at the AmeriStar in north Kansas City, Missouri.  My wife is a Blackcard holder there and we get free room and food.  I didn't check the $.50 and $1+ machines...they are out of my bankroll parameters currently!
 
We talked about Variance in Video Poker as being a bit over 19% on JOB 9/6 which is a losing game with an expected return of 99.544%. 
 
JOB compares favorably to 6-deck Blackjack with 3:2 BJs where the dealer hits soft 17 (split any pair, double any first two, double after split).  The ER on that game is around 99.4% if you play PERFECT Basic Strategy only!
 
But the huge difference is in the Variance or Standard Deviation!  For JOB, that Variance was 19%.   For BJ with the above rules, the variance is somewhere around 5% or 10%!  I couldn't find the exact figures.  That is HUGE in terms of survival! 
 
Now, with Video Poker, the best you can do is play perfect Basic Strategy and add in the Complimentaries the slot club might reward you for your action...maybe some bounce-back cash or other comps.  That can boost your ER to over 100% but you may or may not place much value on those comps.
 
That is where BJ diverges from the Video Poker curve!  You certainly can play Basic Strategy and normally do well with the table game. 
 
However, if you want to really get into it, there is a way with a handshuffled and dealt Blackjack game (no constant shuffle machines!) to increase the ER to as much as 105%.  I can and have played this advantage.  There are three downsides to employing these skills though. 
 
First is that it takes a lot of practice and is more like WORK at the tables until you can apply the skill without effort. 
 
Secondly, it takes a very large bankroll to realize a small return without going broke in the process. 
 
Finally, I know of no casino that will welcome your action as an Advantage Blackjack Player.  You are constantly trying to camophlage your methods lest you be kicked out of the casino either temporarily or permanently!
 
However, for the recreational gambler, Blackjack played with straight basic strategy is a GREAT game to resort to for a change of pace from the volital VP machines.  A lot of interaction at the tables...and most of the time it is good interaction with the other players  ! 

[shadowman]

I play at the AmeriStar in north Kansas City, Missouri.  My wife is a Blackcard holder there and we get free room and food.  I didn't check the $.50 and $1+ machines...they are out of my bankroll parameters currently!
 
The Vpfree database it lists Isle of Capri (KC and Booneville) as having .25 AA. You might want to consider spending your VP bankroll there. I have relatives in Centralia, MO who I visit once a year. I've never hit any casinos in MO but I may try Booneville on the next trip. 
 

[MikeA]

I did check out AA at one time either last year or the year before.  Both AmeriStar and Harrah's were short pay but I do think you are right about Isle of Debris (uh, Capri.)
 
Possibly we could hook up the next time you are down??  (or up or over or whatever!)

[shadowman]

Possibly we could hook up the next time you are down??  (or up or over or whatever!)
 
It would be late summer. It's kind of up, over and down ... (really).

[MikeA]

Well, put a tickler on the event.  Seldom a month goes by that we aren't up there at least once.  Much depends on whether it is a "Vegas Month."  Although, sometimes we do head up north of Topeka to the Indian Casinos up there (not Harrah's though) instead.