Luck or Skill? or Something else

[cddenver]

I have noticed that when I am at the casinos playing Video Poker and hit a real hot streak, I mean I hit 4 of a kinds or higher within 15 minutes no matter which machine I move to or if I hop from casino to casino. When it is hot even most  trash deals turn out winners on the draw.
Also true for cold streaks. No matter what machine or casino , I mean  there are cold streaks where I question my ability to play at times, but upon examinination, I see I am playing as always just on a cold streak or the poker gods are peeved at me about something.
 
Have you the same experience
 
That's true for everyone.  I had a run once where I hit 6 quads in 4 minutes on single play.  A few weeks after that, I went 6 hours between quads (howling).
 
Long term, you'll average about two quads per hour on single play, depending on how fast you play and what game(s) you play.  Every session is different, of course, but I use that as a rule of thumb.  

[cddenver]

Keep track of what socks you are wearing when you have these different streaks.
 
EVERYONE knows (rolling eyes) that socks are irrelevant.  It's the color of the thong that's important.
 

[cddenver]

I usually stay only 2 nites. I dont think I can afford much longer because my play is steady - I break for meals and maybe a few hours of sleep.
 
A player after my own heart!  My usual Vega$ itinerary is:
 
Airport-drive to Strip-casino-bedroom-casino-meal-casino-bedroom (etc)-drive to airport-home.
 
A friend of mine told me once that they have shows and other stuff you can do there, but I think he was just pulling my leg.
 
I must be maturing as a player, though.  I went last month, and while I lost money I did manage to make it home with about a third of what I went with.
 

[stephmo]

I always find that I hit very late at night-usually after midnight. Does any one else notice this?

[bognerl]

I have had all kinds of streaks.  Hot, cold and warm,   In looking back over the trips timing of "moods" seems to be the key (at least for me) as to how I will do.    I play the same machines most of the time I am in vegas and I play them all the same way.   But I find that if I am in a bad mood (PMS) or just worn out then I will usally loose,  but if I am wound up and ready to go,  then I come out ahead.  
 

[weavme]

as far as streaks go, most players have selective memory, (myself included). we tend to remember certain things for a variety of reasons. i have heard stories of poker ie a machine will give you back a six if you threw one away, that kind of thing. its really selective memory at work, we tend to remember things that maybe subconciously we are looking for and ignore all the other things that happen. if you really want to test your therories about randomness, log a few thousand hands of poker, (who really will do that i dont know) and you will see that there really arent any long term patterns, there can be short term ones, but again its all about remembering what you are looking for.sorry if this is a little incoherent, its late and im tiredweave

[details]

I have logged 100,000 plus hands of multi line vp all one game sa with use of a clicker to count hands. There are streaks of wins and losses but all events  like  quads, sf and royals seem to avg out to the games occurances example 4 aces every 4210. I use this info to adjust my denom.  2 years so far I am just over even playing a neg game 7/5 sa which is 98.8. not including my comps.

[shadowman]

I have logged 100,000 plus hands of multi line vp all one game sa with use of a clicker to count hands. There are streaks of wins and losses but all events  like  quads, sf and royals seem to avg out to the games occurances example 4 aces every 4210. I use this info to adjust my denom.  2 years so far I am just over even playing a neg game 7/5 sa which is 98.8. not including my comps.
 
I sure hope you don't assume this will continue indefinitely. It is quite easy to see 2-3% swings on high variance games, even at a million hands. However, if you keep playing this type of game (negative) you will almost surely lose.
 
By using a clicker you're making the assumption that you have a "personal" cycle time for various hands. It doesn't work that way over time. You can see long droughts of 30-40K hands. The more you play the more likely you are to experience these kind of streaks.

[royal flush]

thats why i like fp deuces although alot of streaks i like the game and play close to optimum so 100.5+ perfect is 100.76 my varience is mainly by an occaisional error. plus value of club card

[babybubba]

thats why i like fp deuces although alot of streaks i like the game and play close to optimum so 100.5+ perfect is 100.76 my varience is mainly by an occaisional error. plus value of club card
 
I don't suppose you have any problem proving that you play that accurately. Could I watch sometime?