DDB Ultimate X strategy

[stephmo]

This is a question for all of you out there that know perfect strategy. I was playing Triple Play Ultimate X DDB this past weekend at the Borgata. Normally when I play DDB and get two pairs, and one of the pair is Aces, I drop the second pair.When it's two pair not including aces, I always hold both pairs. While I playing, though, I noticed that I rarely got the third ace, so I started holding the second pair  even when I got aces. Ultimate X gives you a 2x multiplier for one pair, and 3x multiplier for 2 pairs, and a 12x multiplier for a full house on DDB. Did I do the right thing?

[estes1]

what ever feels good to you.i would keep the pair of aces and throw away the rest.

[damule]

It's an interesting point you bring up. I play Ultimate X alot, usually in 10-play form. If there are no multipliers, or low multipliers (such as 2x or 3x) on the original 2-pair hand including a pair of aces, I can see the inclination to go for the full house to set up the following hand. However, if the original hand has higher multipliers (especially 8x, 10x, or 12x), you must definitely just hold the aces. The only way to equalize the variance on this game is to hit a bonus hand with a large multipler.
 
Do keep in mind though, that I believe the correct percentage play is still to always hold just the pair of aces even with no multipliers on the original hand, although I can see the strategy involved here to do otherwise.

[Lucky Larry]

damule,
Since you play Ultimate X frequently how do you handle the high volatility?

LL

[Casino Knight]

D E E P  P O C K E T S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[New2vp]

This is a question for all of you out there that know perfect strategy. I was playing Triple Play Ultimate X DDB this past weekend at the Borgata. Normally when I play DDB and get two pairs, and one of the pair is Aces, I drop the second pair.When it's two pair not including aces, I always hold both pairs. While I playing, though, I noticed that I rarely got the third ace, so I started holding the second pair  even when I got aces. Ultimate X gives you a 2x multiplier for one pair, and 3x multiplier for 2 pairs, and a 12x multiplier for a full house on DDB. Did I do the right thing?
Perfect play strategy on Ultimate X is fairly elusive.  And it's possible that the best play on 3-play is different than the best play on 10-play.  Damule's first paragraph of analysis is spot on.  When you have low multipliers, you should tend more towards gathering bigger multipliers for future hands.  When you have high multipliers, you should tend towards normal strategy to cash in the multipliers that you have.So, the answer here is different depending on the current multiplier.  This analysis is for 9-6 DDB and may be different for other pay schedules.  Perhaps not surprisingly, the answer to your question about when to toss the pair also depends upon how many kickers you are throwing away.  You will be more likely to keep just the aces and toss the other pair when you aren't tossing away potential kickers (2s, 3s, and 4s).  The rule of thumb here is to hold onto both pair when the AVERAGE multiplier is less than or equal to 5 thru 6.See the following table.  Hold onto both pair if the total multipliers are less than or equal to the table entry.  Hold just the pair of aces when the total of the multipliers is greater than the table entry.                                                                   3-play          10-playWhen you would be tossing 0 kickers           15                  50When you would be tossing 1 kicker             16                  53When you would be tossing 2 kickers           17                  56When you would be tossing 3 kickers           18                  60OR ignore the table and do like estes1 says, do what feels good.  Luck will have a bunch more to do with your success than exact strategy here...and the closer you are to the table entry, the less important is the difference between the two decisions.

[damule]

D E E P  P O C K E T S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


 
 
...AND EMPTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[damule]

New,
       That's an amazing analysis. I've never really viewed Ultimate X based on total multipliers on the screen to alter the play decisions. I'd be interested in seeing the same analysis using a more common DDB paytable for this game such as 9/5 or even more common yet, 8/5. New, keep in mind, that the multipliers in 10-play are higher than those in 3/5-play for quads and higher.
 
 

[brmcc74]

one more reason not to play ultimatex, too much thinking. That and the fact that its always full

[New2vp]

Hey mule,  Thank you sir for the kind words.When the game came online here on vp.com, I looked somewhat thoroughly at some of the games with the pay schedules that they had here.  9/6 DDB just happened to be one of them.  As I recall, it was about the best game of the lot with an EV very close to 1.It takes a really long time for complete analysis but taking some shortcuts suggests to me that the entries in the same table that I already posted are also accurate for 9/5.  (The flush payoff has very little effect here as none of the holds we are discussing will end up in a flush, but would have a bigger effect on other plays.)  I did take into account the different multipliers in the 10-play game; they sometimes affect the best play, but since the probability of hitting quads is generally so low, such changes are rare.The reduction in the full house payoff from 9 to 8 in the 8/5 game makes two pair a less
attractive hold because two pair turn into a full house 8 1/2% of the time as
compared to only about 1% full house conversions from a pair of aces.  Thus we will hold two pair less often than we would in a game paying 9 per coin for a full house.My best guess then at the 8/5 table is:                                                                 
3-play          10-playWhen you would be tossing 0 kickers           11                  38When you would be tossing 1
kicker             12                  40When you would be tossing 2
kickers           12                  42When you would be tossing 3
kickers           13                  44And, by the way, you're being too modest when you say, "I've never really viewed Ultimate X based on total multipliers on the
screen to alter the play decisions."  You hinted at just that in the first paragraph of your response to stephmo.  But if you still are questioning it, you really are generally better off if you go after straights, flushes and full houses more aggressively than normal when you have a relatively low total multiplier on the screen.Good luck!  As I said, being fortunate in dealt hands and draws is the most important element when playing a game with such an explosive nature.