what are the odds?

[chuck arl]

i've got pretty good short term memory, especially when i play v.p. so this happened to me recently: i had a hand considered to be a RAZGU, which is throw em' all away. The new draw resulted in the same 5 value cards coming back! What would be the true odds of that happening ?----Charles  Arlington----

[shadowman]

Not too difficult to compute (now I'll probably screw it up). You have a total of 1533939 possible redeals (47 C 5). Let's assume you had 24689 dealt. There are 3 more of each card that can combine with the other cards to form your resultant hand. So, discounting the possible flush results, you have 3**5 = 243. 1533939/243 = 6312. Of course, in many games you toss 5 cards infrequently which would make the average cycle time for this 6312*(RAZGU frequency). Since I don't know the game you were playing you'll have to fill in the appropriate frequency. More likely than you thought?

[Webman]

I've had it happen in draw poker (REAL cards) throwing away all 5 cards, so probably about the same odds.

[chuck arl]

was just curious about that possability, by the way i had foure of kind 4's dealt to me in triple play double double. When i went to draw the possible kicker card, i recv'd the same exact 5th card on all three games! an 8 of clubs. The Gaming Today newspaper listed that possibility at over 100,000 to 1 !!!----Charles Arlington

[shadowman]

was just curious about that possability, by the way i had foure of kind 4's dealt to me in triple play double double. When i went to draw the possible kicker card, i recv'd the same exact 5th card on all three games! an 8 of clubs. The Gaming Today newspaper listed that possibility at over 100,000 to 1 !!!----Charles Arlington
 
Gaming today is notoriously careless in the things they print. Although sort of correct (1/47)**3, it is correct only if you specify the 8 of clubs ahead of time. If the first card could be any card but a kicker card and the next two are duplicates, then the odds are (35/47)(1/47)**2 or 2966 to 1.
 
I once had a sequential RF dealt to me with the odds of that being over 38 million to one. I know a person who hit all three lines on a triple play with a one card draw to make a RF (this is 103823 to 1) only this time it worked in the players favor.
 
Everyone sees unlikely events now and then.