Fa La La La La.... La la la la's Luck

[shadowman]

Shadowman,
You say
The max/min value in most state regs. refers to expected results for VP. 
 
What is expected value.? Sounds like it has no teeth as far as regulations go, if it never has to be realized?  Help me understand this in plain English.
 
From the NV gaming regs 14.040 that I referenced previously:
1. Must theoretically pay out a mathematically demonstrable percentage of all amounts wagered, which must not be less than 75 percent for each wager available for play on the device.
(a) Gaming devices that may be affected by player skill must meet this standard when using a method of play that will provide the greatest return to the player over a period of continuous play.

Note that (a) refers to using "expert play" strategy ... which generates a machine's "expected return" over time. Most states have something similar, some states have copied this text verbatim.

[cddenver]

cddenver, so are you trying to say that a machine will never fall below 80%hold , and never higher than a 100% payback. How do you suppose that can happen with total randomness all the time when regulations state that they must be in a range of 80-100%. 
If regulators go in and find a vp machine at 70% because of poor play what do they do? How can a machine that continually is played poorly ever bought back up to 80%.
 
Since my last post, I checked the Nevada regs.  I was kinda lazy when I said someone else could check those.  Same stuff as here in CO, but MORE of it!  I thought ours were complicated!
 
The 80% / 100% values simply cover the ERs for specific games that can be offerred here in CO.  9/6/4 DDB has an ER of 98.98%, so you find it here.  A game like 10/7 DB has an ER of 100.17%, so it CAN'T be offerred here.  If there are any VP games with an ER of less than 80%, you wouldn't find them here, either.  That part of the regs is an issue of game design - there are tables and charts with that info, calculated using perfect play over millions of hands.  The reason that millions of hands are used is just to make sure that all of the "good" runs and "bad" runs have been averaged out.  It has nothing to do with what happens during individual sessions, good or bad.  Sorry if I caused some confusion on that.
 
The specifications in the regs for casinos here and in Nevada regarding randomness are *tight* - they can't use game programs that mess with the output from RNGs to put the brakes on a short term "good" run, or help you out during a short term "bad" run.  Seems like that, sometimes, but that's just statistics at work - all good runs come to an end sometime, and bad runs too.
 
There's nothing in the regs (or the mathematics of VP) that puts a floor on losses due to unsound play.   I could sit at a machine for hours and drop dealt quads, dealt high pairs, four to a royals, dealt flushes, etc. - REALLY get that machine yield down! -, and that wouldn't bother a gaming inspector in the least.  As long as the game program/RNG passes whatever tests they have, they're happy.
 
I don't know if there are "official" numbers on this, but my own numbers show that quads/straight flushes/royals make up from 20%-25% of a game's ER, depending on the game being played.  That's why I said in my earlier post that play being done between quads is at less than 80%.  If anyone has a different view on that, let me know.
 
One more thing (I'm being industrious today).  I checked some of my own records to see if there's any unusual tendency for quads to come up at the beginning of a session.  Nope.  The average amount of time it takes to get that first quad is the same as for any quad during a session.  So I really don't see anything special about short sessions as opposed to long sessions other than the "stupidity" factor that comes up due to fatigue.  That's REAL, and the main reason why I prefer shorter sessions myself.
 
 
 
 

[babybubba]

It's inrvitable people lead me to forums where there's an on-going discussion of my strategy along with the obligatory bad-mouthing of sorts. But at least get your facts straight before trying to build your confidence.
(I'm using babybubba as a user name so my name doesn't attract the usual bozos who are just trolling)
 
1. The only things sold by me are two books, and both have years behind them. They are only sold because publishers require it--in fact, unlike the others who've so shamelessly commercialed everything about the game (as further proven by the latest Jean Scott "help put gambling money in my pockets" $19.95 pay table locater trinket), the first 6 people (that's all I have here right now) to e-mail me with a mailing address will receive either book free. And I buy these from the publisher.
2. What's so misunderstood about my strategies is that they are predicated only on short-term, i.e., single session play. When it's over it's over, and a new session is begun at a lower denomination and lower volatile game. Any attempts at clumping all my play over the years together into one long-term session is misguided and irrelevant. You may do that with my losing "optimal play" years from 1990-1996, but not anytime after that.
 
3. Someone here made a comment of disbelief concerning my current Gaming Today article on how I received multiple sets of Aces on $5 BP to end four of my five sessions. What would it take to to both prove it to you AND have you come on here saying you spoke as every critic of RS does--in unsupportable  and irresponsible assertions?
 
4. Regardless of all the babble, it is a fact and I know it to be true that the machines - and in strict accordance with Nv. gaming regulations - are programmed within their primary programming code, to run in hot and cold cycles. There has been way too much negative discussion on this subject (esp. with and from punchcard-era programmer dick "I moved to LV to feed my insatiable gambling habit" mustain) and you can either believe it or not. But remember, believe it and adjust your play to detect and react, and if you play my strategy you'll come closer and closer to my results.
 
Remember, the game is nothing but luck, and if you give luck the opportunity to show and have the extreme discipline to abide by your pre-set win or loss goals, it's a fun and VERY profitable game.  Listen to the "gurus" and you'll end up just like them--selling and yakking and taking other people's money at every possible turn just to keep as much gambling money in their pockets as allowed by law. Long-term applies only to the casinos and to each individual machine, and if you try to make believe you'll perform in the short term as the math says it will turn out in the long run, you're only fooling yourself and making excuses on why you keep on playing. Keep chasing those phantom bucks and your wallets will be full of them....just as you requested.

[rascal]

I really appreciate you having the moxie to come here and openly face your detractors, Mr. RS.
 
However, one point that you failed to address is something I posted up above earlier. You had written in your column that you will not allow anyone to watch you play and in fact you rejected a radio talk show host's request to observe your gambling because you did not want to be distracted (your words). Then, not long afterwards, you wrote a column about flying your family members out from the East Coast to spend a day observing how you make your money in the casinos. This seems like a contradiction to me.
 
Also, what is your proof about the hot and cold cycles? You say "it is a fact and I know it to be true" but where's the beef? Where's the proof? How can it be a fair deal under Nevada gaming regulations if the machine runs hot and cold? That is no longer a fair deal.
 
Please respond, and also please notice that this board is composed of civil individuals who are sincerely interested in learning more about various VP strategies, not bashing people. So while I can't speak for everyone here, I do think (and hope) we can discuss your program with "inside voices"; don't worry about that....

[bigboy]

Unfortunately Rascal, we can't verify if babbybubba is indeed, Fa La La La La.... La la la la. No info was provided on the member page. Also noted was the OS system for this poster is Windows 98.

[babybubba]

I know I missed the one about playing with others around. When I played for the members of my family from the east coast it was only because they know nothing about casinos or gambling and thought of me as some sort of degenerate because I made my living playing video poker. It was important that I travel with them to Hawaii and have them return home with the knowledge that I did know what I was doing and I did very well at it. Sure, I could have lost with them there but with nearly a 90% chance of that not happening it was a good gamble and for a good cause. The radio show host--Fezzik--wanted to witness a year's worth of playing. In addition to my not playing with anyone else hanging around or on anyone else's schedule (although I've done it as required for both my publishers for obvious reasons) I    come to Nv. to play on a half-day's notice and at sometimes odd times of the night. Fezzik worked and no way could he keep up with my travels to LV, Lake Tahoe or Laughlin. He only said that to demean me and as is well known, he ended up looking more stupid than he was by tossing out his wild asssertions about my results.
 
I don't want to get into a prolonged discussion on the machines cycles because I've done it so many times and the math people can't accept it (because imagine what accepting it would do to their sacred method of monotonous long-term play?). I've written where I was told by a game manufacturer's software engineer who programs the machines, it was thoroughly explained to me , I've seen enough verification of this fact through my play (detection of hot and/or cold cycles), and the precedence-taking clause in the regs require limits--and not theoretical limits but actual hold limits. Purposely left out was specific language on the requirement to have cycles, but it is obvious to anyone who can read, and anyone who knows how Gov'ts. write regulations knows there are various reasons for that. It all adds up in a very clean and comprehensible way--to those who aren't blinded by their own prejudices. Cold hard proof is impossible unless you work at a game manufacturer.
 
 

[bigboy]

[QUOTE=babybubba]
.
(I'm using babybubba as a user name so my name doesn't attract the usual bozos who are just trolling)
 
1. The only things sold by me are two books, and both have years behind them. They are only sold because publishers require it--in fact, unlike the others who've so shamelessly commercialed everything about the game (as further proven by the latest Jean Scott "help put gambling money in my pockets" $19.95 pay table locater trinket), the first 6 people (that's all I have here right now) to e-mail me with a mailing address will receive either book free.
 
babybubba: you failed to provide your e-mail. Are you for real?

[bigboy]

Rascal: I think we may have another trucker 1946 in the forum, if you know what i mean.

[babybubba]

my e-mail is   rsinger1111@cox.net   or   rob_Fa La La La La.... La la la la@qwest.net
 
Not sure if it's me? Name another name in video poker who can afford both qwest and cox at home.
 
Yes, this computer's using Windows 98 because I haven't had any problems over the years. My other has XP and my laptop uses Vista.

[shadowman]

This IS Fa La La La La.... La la la la.