Learn From This Strategy Lesson

[babybubba]

You're correct--it IS symantics. But instead of shadow admitting that point he chose to try and discredit what I said as he usually does because of his envy over me.  Now maybe you can see why I'm starting to feel for this poor soul.

[Eduardo]

I understand.So odds of being dealt three to royal and then winning are bigger than being dealt four to royal and then winning?Can i see those odds? Odds of being dealt three to royal or four to royal to start with and then multiply by chances of winning? Thank you much as always.1/1,081 is not very good chance of hitting that royal compared to other winnings. You could try 1,000 times and miss it? Sorry it sounded like it was almost a "sure thing" or something from the sounds of things. There could be 1,000 unhappy people with this decision unless they are getting dealt thousands of three to royals, right? Oh this makes my head hurt.  Please explain simply because i am confusing even myself!

[shadowman]

Can i see those odds? Odds of being dealt three to royal or four to royal to start with and then multiply by chances of winning? Thank you much as always.

1/1,081 is not very good chance of hitting that royal compared to other winnings. You could try 1,000 times and miss it? Sorry it sounded like it was almost a "sure thing" or something from the sounds of things. There could be 1,000 unhappy people with this decision unless they are getting dealt thousands of three to royals, right? Oh this makes my head hurt.  Please explain simply because i am confusing even myself!

 
You get dealt RF3 once every 55 hands on average, hitting it once every 1081 tries (on average). So if you went for it every time it would take around 60,000 hands. Of course, it would be poor play to go for it every time. In most games you should hold three of a kind and high pairs rather that RF3. If I remember right 67 hands is close to the number most often used for RF3 attempts. 67*1081 = 72,000 hands.
 
You get dealt RF4 once every 2765 hands. In this case you should almost always go for the RF. 2765*47 = just under 130,000 hands.
 
 

[Webman]

Eduardo, just to clarify (or re-word) based on shadowman's response:
 
If you are only going for a royal,
You will get dealt and then hit a royal off RF3 1 in 60,000 hands.

You will get dealt and then hit a royal off RF4 1 in 130,000 hands.
 
So if you really want a royal, as babybubba said you are most likely to get one on RF3 at some point (a little more than twice as often, it appears).
 
But if you follow shadowman's strategy you will not always hold for that royal on RF3 with only a 1/1081 chance. I believe that is where these two differ in opinion, but they agree on the odds of it happening, at least from what I can tell. Correct me if I am wrong.
 

[Eduardo]

So if the face suits are the same on QQQAK I hold QAK if it will make a session goal but I only have 1 in 1,081 chance of getting it. Going by that strategy.  Is that right?

[bigboy]

So if the face suits are the same on QQQAK I hold QAK if it will make a session goal but I only have 1 in 1,081 chance of getting it. Going by that strategy.  Is that right?                       
 
 
Sounds right to me, Eduardo.

[Eduardo]

If only thousand to one shot I think I like to take the Queens and wait for my next QAK if 3 to royal is so common! I know you hit on this exact play but that was one luuuuuuucky draw! 

[MikeA]

OOPS....I read my analysis wrong in my initial post!
 
Holding the QQQ gives you an EV of  27.1369.
Holding the AKQ suited gives you an EV of 6.6744.
 
In other words, you are likely to give up over 21 coins per decision if you go for the two card draw to the royal over taking the trips and going for quads (or a full house).

[bigboy]

OOPS....I read my analysis wrong in my initial post!
 
Holding the QQQ gives you an EV of  27.1369.
Holding the AKQ suited gives you an EV of 6.6744.
 
In other words, you are likely to give up over 21 coins per decision if you go for the two card draw to the royal over taking the trips and going for quads (or a full house).
 
You really had me scratching my head with that initial post, Mike A. EV:27vs.22.

[babybubba]

Actually, there is not a lot of difference in the hold.  Looking at the EV on these two holds, you will get an EV of 27.1369 by holding the three Queens.  You get an EV of 22.2340 by holding for the RF3.  That's an expected loss of less than 5 coins each time you hold for the Royal with this particular hand.
 
To me, 5 coins is significant enough to make me hold for the Queens.  The quad and full house potential to the already "made" 15 coin win make it worth it.  I'm not quite up to speed on this "goal" oriented strategy though and it might make a difference.
 
 
 
All well said. However, when playing for particular goals that are within the parameters of the strategy, EV takes second place at times based on the calculated risk figures. In the case of 3-to-the-royal, if I were on the dollar level anywhere within the 100 credits I play, I would always hold the 3-Q's because it attains a mini-win goal. At $2, $5 & $10 it always depends how far I am into the 100 BP credits that determines my play, because I have to win enough $$ to cover any losses in that denomination as well as pocket at least a 40-credit profit from that denomination. At those 3 levels my mini-goal is to get back to the BP in that denomination, while at $25 and $100 it is to get back to at least the $10/$25 (respectively) level BP--which means I have to win enough to recover all $10 losses plus any $25 BP losses PLUS pocket at least a 40-credit profit @ $25. I do allow for some movement if the potential win is huge (such as a $6250 quad or a $25,000 quad in DDB) and I will go for the quad, but in BP I stick to the numbers.