Variance

[Eduardo]

I saw you guys talking about "variance" in that other thread and have questions.I take this to mean if you play a perfect strategy you will win more sometimes and lose more sometimes (better and worse sessions) instead of being more steady?If I am going to gamble with only a couple hundred dollars or less it sounds like I want high variance and hope to get lucky? Because with low variance I can not expect to win or lose as big, but more likely to break even?Or is variance only important to know if I play a lot of money long term?Also, which of these would be best for a low bankroll situation and hoping to just win big before going broke... Double Bonus, Double Double Bonus or Deuces Wild? I like to see the percentages (once I know what they mean better) but also keeping it simple would be helpful! Thank you thank you!

[MikeA]

"Variance" is tied to strategy which is dictated by the game and paytables on that game. 
 
Think of JOB (Jacks or Better).  I think it is the lowest of variance game at 19%.  You get paid 2 for one on two pair on that game.  The two pair generally makes up a large percentage of the number of "win" hands you get in that game.  You pay for that in that you are only paid 125 for a 4-of-a-kind.  In that game, two pair is a hand to be sought after and you'll hit it quite often and double each bet made on it.
 
Now look at DDB.  Two pair only pays even money (1 to 1) so 2-pr is a break even hand:  valuable only because you don't lose with it.  The difference is made up in the 4 of a Kind payoffs with 250, 400, 800 and 2000.  In DDB, you pretty much have to have those quads to beat the game.  However, you do not hit 4oK nearly as often as you hit two pair!  You can expect to be losing until you do hit quads.  At any given time, you might expect to be 42%+- from the expected return pretty much depending on the number of quads you are hitting and which quads you hit!  Oh, you'll get some "bankroll maintenance" hands like Full Houses and Flushes, but the reall key to this game is the quads.
 
I hope this formats properly for the forum:
 











Analyze Double Double Bonus












Game Return
100.067 %












Variance
42.1765













Pay
Frequency
%Probability
Occurs Every
% Return








Royal Flush
4000
63.72858
0.002
40,781.7
1.96

Straight Flush
250
284.83471
0.011
9124.45
0.55

4 Aces w/ any 2,3,4
2000
160.07206
0.006
16236.19
2.46


4 2s,3s,4s w/A,2,3,4
800
372.16254
0.014
6,983.4
2.29

4 Aces
800
451.13191
0.017
5760.98
2.78

4 2s,3s,4s
400
999.05462
0.038
2601.42
3.08

4 5s thru Ks
250
4238.13782
0.163
613.23
8.15

Full House
50
28232.9747
1.086
92.05
10.86

Flush
30
29386.27706
1.131
88.44
6.78

Straight
20
33119.46742
1.274
78.47
5.1

3 of a KIND
15
195693.76344
7.53
13.28
22.59

2 Pair
5
319993.4783
12.312
8.12
12.31

Jacks or Better
5
549688.3236
21.15
4.73
21.15

No Win
0
1436276.59326
55.264
1.81
0
 









Analyze Jacks or Better












Game Return
99.544 %












Variance
19.5147













Pay
Frequency
%Probability
Occurs Every
% Return








Royal Flush
4000
64.34575
0.002
40,390.55
1.98

Straight Flush
250
284.08995
0.011
9,148.37
0.55

4 of a KIND
125
6140.16174
0.236
423.27
5.91

Full House
45
29919.76638
1.151
86.86
10.36

Flush
30
28626.27343
1.101
90.79
6.61

Straight
20
29184.67629
1.123
89.05
4.49

3 of a KIND
15
193489.18964
7.445
13.43
22.33

2 Pair
10
335990.69639
12.928
7.74
25.86

Jacks or Better
5
557697.91249
21.459
4.66
21.46

No Win
0
1417562.88795
54.543
1.83
0








Video Poker for Winners Copyright 2006, Action Gaming Inc.


 
You an see that your highest return is from two-pair in Jacks or Better followed closely by 3oK.  DDB, 2 pair is less than half what JOB's 2-pair return is.
 
Now, look at the Return % for 4oK between the two games.  Job is 5.91% of your total return.  Now look at the combination of the return of all the different payouts on Quads for DDB: 18.76%.  That is 3 times the return for quads in DDB than JOB.  Obviously, this is the equalizing hand.  It's why you throw away an Aces over Full House to go for quads!
 
The 3oK, St, Fl and FH numbers ar what I consider "maintenance"!    They replenish your bankroll so that you can keep playing for those quads!  Oh, it's conceivable that you could work your way into a winning session without hitting quads in DDB, but it doesn't happen often. 
 
Once again, I emphasize that quads do not hit that often but you win with the quads and if you don't hit them, you will most likely lose.  I think you will find that that one factor will help explain "variance" about as well as anything other than posting formula and theory.
 
Now, to your final question (what's best for doubling bankroll).
 
You are getting into Risk of Ruin.  I could go into volumes on that with Blackjack, but do not have the figures for you in VP.  DDB would certainly give you a better chance of both doubling your BR and would give you a much greater chance of losing it all. 
 
I think I posted elsewhere that I had 10 100-coin losing sessions with DDB before finally hitting the quads that brought be back to even.  I played a simulation session yesterday with DDB where I came out ahead on my 6th session. 
 
YOU might hit on the first session.  So much would depend on your play level with $200 to wager.  You would get eight 100-coin sessions at the quarter level and would have a fairly good chance of hitting a good hand or two in that number of hands.
 
 

[Eduardo]

Eight 100 coin sessions.  What does that mean? Is a coin like a credit on this site so I would be betting 5 coins max, or 20 hands per session... so 160 hands if i lost every time, is that right?Obviously I am not so bad to lose EVERY time, but what I mean is, is that what you mean by 8 100-coin sessions?Is that with quarters?How much would I win if I bet 5 and hit 4 aces and no kicker on that much o f abet?

[MikeA]

Eight 100 coin sessions.  What does that mean? Is a coin like a credit on this site so I would be betting 5 coins max, or 20 hands per session... so 160 hands if i lost every time, is that right?

Obviously I am not so bad to lose EVERY time, but what I mean is, is that what you mean by 8 100-coin sessions?

Is that with quarters?

How much would I win if I bet 5 and hit 4 aces and no kicker on that much o f abet?

 
So many questions!   That's okay Eduardo.
 
When I say eight 100 coin sessions, I mean that each coin is, in your example, $.25 or a quarter.  If you max bet (which you should always do) then you would get 20 hands of 5-coin bets out of each 100-coin session (the session would cost you $25.00) if you lost every one of them.
 
Now, if you hit 4 aces in DDB with no kicker and had the 5-coin max bet, you would win 800 quarters or $200.00.
 
Your math on the number of hands is correct: 20 hands per 100-coin session if you lost every one of them.  Multiply that by 8 and you would get 160 hands MINIMUM for your initial bankroll of $200.00 at the quarter level.

[Eduardo]

Many questions? oh I am just getting started MikeA! Thank you.  I thought that is what you means (160 minimum) but just wanted to know for sure.  I do not always understand how the credits on this site would look in the casino but if I think of them as quarters then that makes it easier. Is quarters the main amount of machines then in Vegas?So $200 for a 4 aces quad... oh I will have to do that if i want to do better than break even.  I guess I will just get the kicker also. So Double Double Bonus is a good choice for me if what I say above is how i want to play?How would deuces wild be?

[bigboy]

Many questions? oh I am just getting started MikeA! 

Thank you.  I thought that is what you means (160 minimum) but just wanted to know for sure.  I do not always understand how the credits on this site would look in the casino but if I think of them as quarters then that makes it easier.

Is quarters the main amount of machines then in Vegas?

So $200 for a 4 aces quad... oh I will have to do that if i want to do better than break even.  I guess I will just get the kicker also.

So Double Double Bonus is a good choice for me if what I say above is how i want to play?

How would deuces wild be?


 
SOMEBODY GET THIS MAN TO A CASINO. Scratch that itch, Eduardo.

[MikeA]

  I was thinking the same thing Bigboy!
 
Eduardo,
 
As long as you realize that you are probably going to lose the $200 playing DDB at the quarter level, then go for it.
 
It may not be the best game to go with on that BR though.  Consider Double Bonus (DB).  It has a greater return and the variance is less by almost 14%.  The quads do not have the larger bonus payouts that DDB has, but, you do get more for a Flush and more for a Straight.  Still, quads do pay 250 (5-K), 400 (2-4) and 800 (Aces).
 
Playing DB may give you more chances to hit multiple quads that could double your BR.
 
You will soon find out as you practice DB that the strategy is more complex than either JOB or DDB.  Obviously, this is because of the better payouts on the Flushes and Straights.
 
But with the goal of doubling a $200 bankroll, you might also consider playing Roulette and placing the $200 on Black!  I hate to think what your ROR (Risk of Ruin) is with those bets and that bankroll in VP.  Certainly not good.
 
Oh, Deuces Wild....that's not my game.  Not yet anyway.  Someone else will have to address that question.

[bigboy]

If I am going to gamble with only a couple hundred dollars or less it sounds like I want high variance and hope to get lucky? Because with low variance I can not expect to win or lose as big, but more likely to break even?

Or is variance only important to know if I play a lot of money long term?

Also, which of these would be best for a low bankroll situation and hoping to just win big before going broke... Double Bonus, Double Double Bonus or Deuces Wild? I like to see the percentages (once I know what they mean better) but also keeping it simple would be helpful! Thank you thank you!

 
Not to burst your enthusiasm but to go in with a bankroll that only equals 20% of the RF pay-- You will need to be very lucky to last for any length of time. A bankroll that equals 160 hands most likely will not give you a chance. If a smaller denom. is available, you are probably better off going with it. Actually, it is probably a great idea for all first-timers to start off with the lowest denom. on their first casino visit because most are probably going to be distracted by all of the sights/sounds/eye-candy on the casino floor.

[Eduardo]

I do not see myself ever playing with more than 200 or MAYBE 300 dollars. So I will have to get lucky.  But I like learning the game and at least knowing in my short time I will be playing right.What other amounts can I play with and do all places offer a choice or are some quarters only? I would play with dimes or something to last a little longer but then I cannot win as much.

[bigboy]

Every area is different. Most areas now have nickel machines, however many still do not. Depends on where you are looking to play.