Having More Fun Playing Negative Games?

[FloridaPhil]

Whatever works.  Every player has their own favorite strategy, that's a big part of the fun of Video Poker.  I believe every hand is totally independent from all the others, but I also believe trends do occur and that a player can take advantage of them.  I definitely will hold back on bad days and play much high denominations on good days.  The problem is knowing what days are bad and what are good as the hands go by. I think that is where experience comes into play.  I don't think you can make a living with this strategy, but I do believe you can do much better than playing the same 95% game all day at the same denomination.  For years, my wife sat beside me and played 7/5 and 8/5 quarter Jacks.  She lost very little, but never won much either.  In my opinion it was a totally defensive strategy designed to keep her loses to a minimum.  She got so bored she almost gave up the game.  We worked on the denomination strategy together and now she knows what it's like to get a W-2G.
 

[shadowman]

How can you take advantage of random trends? What is a random trend? When does a trend start and when does it end?
 
I think you are fooling yourself. For example, yesterday I played 2.5 hours without a single premium hand. Looks like a bad trend, right? Should I have quit? Well, I didn't and proceeded to hit 10 premium hands in the next 2.5 hours including a RF.
 
I've also had the exact opposite happen as well as being cold for an entire session and doing well for an entire session. How does one figure out which will happen next when anything and everything is possible?

[onemoretry]

I think the title of this topic should be changed, since you can not "get an edge" on negative expectation games.  In fact, the title is an oxymoron. A more appropriate title would be: "Having more fun playing negative games", or something similar to that.

[FloridaPhil]

Sounds good to me... done.  I define having a good day as having white tickets in my pocket equal to the amount of money I walked into the casino with and having money left to play. That's when I increase my denomination.  Of course this means that I am limiting my play, but it also means I'm guaranteed to go home at least even. Some days I hit a nice jackpot at a much higher denomination than I can normally afford to play at.   To me that's a win. 

[BillyJoe]

How can you take advantage of random trends? What is a random trend? When does a trend start and when does it end?
 
You never recognize a streak, good or bad, until it is over.

[olds442jetaway]

And the hardest thing of all is to quit while you are ahead. Who hasn't been ahead a little in most sessions only to return it and then some. I guess that is why we call it recreational play. I would say 5 percent of today's bankroll is a good guess on the amount we can usually be up at some point during a one day session.

[FloridaPhil]

[Quote=Billyjoe]You never recognize a streak, good or bad, until it is over.[/QUOTE]
 
I understand the math behind this statement, but disagree that you can't tell when things are going bad or good in the short term.  In my experience, a 2-3 hour session rarely does a 180 degree turn around unless I hit a Royal or switch games and get lucky.  I may be fooling myself, but that's also part of being a recreational player.   It''s so much fun to have yourself rewarded by our schemes that go against what the numbers say.  As I type this I'm getting ready to go to the Tampa Hard Rock for the day and so far this morning things are great...  

[Vman96]

"Having more fun playing negative games", or something similar to that.

With the new title, I would say I definitely fall into this category. Mainly because my Video Poker play is generally as follows:

I will not play quarters unless the machine pays 99%+, usually 99.5%+. Anything lower, nickels only, generally only one line, unless it's pennies, then 30 to 50 cents a round.

But roughly looking at my results over the past ~2 years, I have run quite terrible on the 99%+ quarter machines, but much closer (or even above expectation) for the nickel/penny machines. But since my play on quarters, is 5x more expensive, my overall results are pretty bad.

I also think I broke this quarters rule once during CET's "Race to Rewards". I wanted to earn 25 Tier Points in KC within 30 minutes, so I played quarters on the best returning machine I could find on the property. My estimating skills told me it was a 9/5 DDB (98.37%) Double STP machine. I proceed to hit it for my biggest video poker hit ever; 4 2s-4s with a 4X multiplier for $400. Yes, only $400 sadly is my biggest hit. My biggest hit on a "full-pay" quarter machine is only $100. Math keeps me away from these lower paying machines for higher-level play, but I definitely seem do better on them. :(

Last night included...I had a quarter session in the 3rd percentile last night, losing $130 at 99.66% Bonus Poker with $512 coin-in. Up ~$10 on the 96-97% nickel machines...lol

[FloridaPhil]

We don't have nickel video poker in Florida. I wish we did as it would give me something to do when I want to protect a big win.  Yesterday, we decided to check out a new bus trip to the Hard Rock in Tampa. It takes about an hour and 1/2 each way to drive there from my home and having someone else drive is nice. The bus trip costs $25 and they give you $35 in free play.  We arrived at the Casino about 10:00 AM and sat down at some new VP machines they just installed in the main casino. I put in the $35 free play tickets and like I always do started with .50 DDB.   After about 4-5 hands I got a small quad for $125.  I played about a dozen hands more and hit another small quad for $125.  I've seen this drill before, so I switched to $1 DDB and decided to play down to $200 and cash out.  3-4 hands later, up pops 4 Aces for $800!  Now I'm up almost $1,000 and I haven't touched my own money yet.  I played for a while longer and the quads stopped coming so I played quarter deuces for the rest of the day.  I finally went home up $500 for the day, which I consider an excellent result.  I'm afraid to play one coin quarter VP because I once hit a royal and a 4AwK within 5 minutes of each other playing one coin quarters and it took me months to get over it.  I've been on a winning streak for a while now and it feels good.  I know it's only a matter of time until it turns around again...

[BillyJoe]

We don't have nickel video poker in Florida. I wish we did as it would give me something to do when I want to protect a big win.  Yesterday, we decided to check out a new bus trip to the Hard Rock in Tampa. It takes about an hour and 1/2 each way to drive there from my home and having someone else drive is nice. The bus trip costs $25 and they give you $35 in free play.  We arrived at the Casino about 10:00 AM and sat down at some new VP machines they just installed in the main casino. I put in the $35 free play tickets and like I always do started with .50 DDB.   After about 4-5 hands I got a small quad for $125.  I played about a dozen hands more and hit another small quad for $125.  I've seen this drill before, so I switched to $1 DDB and decided to play down to $200 and cash out.  3-4 hands later, up pops 4 Aces for $800!  Now I'm up almost $1,000 and I haven't touched my own money yet.  I played for a while longer and the quads stopped coming so I played quarter deuces for the rest of the day.  I finally went home up $500 for the day, which I consider an excellent result.  I'm afraid to play one coin quarter VP because I once hit a royal and a 4AwK within 5 minutes of each other playing one coin quarters and it took me months to get over it.  I've been on a winning streak for a while now and it feels good.  I know it's only a matter of time until it turns around again...

WTG, Phil . Wifey is dragging me over to the HR again tonight. They have a VIP promotion tonight, so at least I will get some FreePlay.