DDB Variance Revealed..

[FloridaPhil]

Most of you know that I've been playing single quarter DDB for a little over a month now and it's really showed me why I was losing so often playing this game.    My single quarter session budget is $150.  That's like having $750 to play max coins and so far I have not left the casino without most of my money in my pocket.  Anyway, back to the subject.  The problem with DDB is the variance is so great that I busted or panicked before the machine caught back up. 
 
Today was typical of what I'm talking about.  I played for 4 hours at about 800 hands an hour which is about 3,200 hands. I hit 4 aces early and pocketed a $56 ticket.  The machine gave me a number of regular quads that I kept in the machine.  At no time was I ahead of the game. I thought I was going home with $56 and in the last hour hit 4 deuces with a kicker and a couple more regular quads.  I cash out at $60 and left with $116.  If I was playing max coins, I would probably have left with empty pockets again.  The entire day cost me a grand total of $34.  I've been repeating this same scenario for the last 4 weeks except for one session where I made $100.  To duplicate this result with max coin quarters, I would need a session budget of $750.  At max coin .50 I would need $1,500 and max coin dollars I would need $3000 a session.   
 
 
 

[Vman96]

To be fair, you would need slightly less than $750 a session to generally pull this off with max bets. $1000 Royals are worth more than $312.50. However, it sounds like you're having way more fun playing this way, so that's the good thing. You're definitely going to lose less per hour on average, so that means you'll be able to generally play a lot longer on the same amount of money when 8/5 DDB is your best option for that game.

One question though, have you seen any changes in comps yet?

[FloridaPhil]

The Florida Hard Rocks are where I play the most.  They went to a new system that displays the comp credits each time you put your card in the machine.  My comp credits are about 1/5 of what they used to be.  With max coin quarters, I used to accumulate about $20 a day in credits, now it's about $5.   You can't use the comps at the Hard Rock for anything other than food, Tshirts or overpriced hotel rooms, so that doesn't hurt me much.  On the other hand, I went from losing $500 to $600 a month to less than $100 and that's wonderful.  We played for two days at the Cherokee Harrahs last week and they comped the room for both days.  I played all day both days and actually made a profit of $100.  I expect my free rooms will end when they see my cash in drop.  I'm also ready for the Beau Rivage to stop sending me free flights and rooms, but they don't know what I'm doing yet so I will probably still get them for a while.  I'm saving so much money this way that I can pay for any hotel room I want.  I expect I'll still be able to get a decent room discount as a player's club member.   I have noticed a few other interesting things about playing single coin.  Throwing away the suited 10s and drawing to a flush with a 3-to-a-royal does buy you a better chance at a good hand.   Personally, I think royals are over rated.  I've had a ton of them over the ten years I've been playing and they were responsible for the largest single day win I ever had, but you lose way more long term trying for them.  I understand the thrill of a royal for the average player, but for me the "thrill is gone". 

[shadowman]

From my experience a budget of $3000 for a high variance game at the dollar level will suffice about 95% of the time.

[FloridaPhil]

Interesting.  I guess my session budget is about right then.  I have yet to experience one of those 5% days, but I'm sure it's coming. Losing $150 won't kill me, $3,000 is another mattter.   

[Vman96]

Interesting.  I guess my session budget is about right then.  I have yet to experience one of those 5% days, but I'm sure it's coming. Losing $150 won't kill me, $3,000 is another mattter. 

I feel the same way, why I play nickels (or a single quarter) unless the game is near 100%. Also, when playing single coin 4 to a flush > 3 to a Royal is standard. Not a bad thing because I am assuming getting a Royal on short-coin is a bit of a bittersweet feeling. But if I am at a bartop on the Vegas strip or Tunica drinking for tips, I'm generally looking to minimize my loss per hour. For a lot of casinos across the country, that means to play one credit if the bartender lets you.    

[FloridaPhil]

I've never had a bartender make any comment about my play.  As long as you're playing, they give me free drinks.  I have seen the coin button blocked on some machines.  The high limit Video Poker machines at the Tampa Hard Rock are max coins only.   One day I was sitting next to a lady and she commented about my one coin play.  She was nice, but curious as to why I was doing it.  I told her that I wait until the machine starts paying then switch to max coins.   I could tell she was in deep thought about my statement by the look on her face.   I think she thought I could actually do that..