My theory on long term results

[olds442jetaway]

The space time continuum.....all of us by now have seen patterns and experienced vp results that defy all probability in our minds. That is why I believe long term results may never approach the usual paytable percentages in various vp machines in our lifetimes. We are dealing with infinity here. Some people are just born lucky and have great vp results playing terrible paytables and far less than perfect strategy. Others play nearly perfect strategy on 99% or better paytables and have results in the 90-95% range even over millions of hands played. I cannot argue the math with Bob Dancer and others because the math is the math and cannot be debated. However, for some of us, those results will take much longer than our lifetimes to achieve. Play for fun and entertainment and within your budget and hopefully the comps will offset some or most of the unlucky results that many of us achieve.

[FloridaPhil]

There are few guarantees in life, much less in gambling.  If the greatest video poker player of all time played 100% machines with an unlimited bankroll, there is still a chance that he/she wouldn't make money over a lifetime.  Of course there's always a chance of being run over by a bus, but at least I can stay off the street. 

[olds442jetaway]

Gotta watch for those speeders in the scooters though. I got hit by a drunk in one some years back. Not hurt luckily, but the next year Mohegan got new ones with lower top speeds. Those old ones used to really fly down the aisles.

[pokerpokerpoker]

It sounds good: a machine that pays back at 98-99%. Seems to me that over time you would have trips that you go bust, trips that you win big, and a few around even. At the end of the year losing a couple grand, but when the entertainment value and comp rooms,buffets and free play are figured in- I could call that a square deal. But sadly,the real results never seem to be that good.

[FloridaPhil]

There is no strategy that will change the odds of a negative expectation game to positive.  However, there are strategies that can reduce your loses and put you in position to take greater advantage of your wins. With the right strategy and a lot of luck you may even make a profit for a period of time.  That period of time could be your lifetime.  No matter what anyone says, there are people who lose long term playing 100% games and there are some that win playing negative games.  Luck is such a huge part of gambling that no one can out think or strategize the outcome.  I'm not saying strategy is unimportant.  I'm saying it's not all there is. 

[royal flush]

the way to turn negative games into positive is dont play and treat the money you are not losing into going on a vacation

[olds442jetaway]

There is no strategy that will change the odds of a negative expectation game to positive.  However, there are strategies that can reduce your loses and put you in position to take greater advantage of your wins. With the right strategy and a lot of luck you may even make a profit for a period of time.  That period of time could be your lifetime.  No matter what anyone says, there are people who lose long term playing 100% games and there are some that win playing negative games.  Luck is such a huge part of gambling that no one can out think or strategize the outcome.  I'm not saying strategy is unimportant.  I'm saying it's not all there is. 

     Remember the " 3 lady " I posted about a while back. Every so often I see her and she always hits something big. She claims to be ahead of the game, but so do lots of people so I don't know. All I know is she is not grumbling like most of the vp players. She plays DDB only and keeps small pairs, aces, throws away other high cards or other pairs like 678910. She keeps a single ace and a 3. Somehow, she just stays lucky. Just another example of how important luck is. Last time I saw her, she kept a single ace and a 3. She drew the other 3's. Go figure. Somehow, most of us are underestimating how long possibly thousands of years it could take for perfect play on 99% plus machines to match the results you would expect from the paytable. Another side example is my Royal hit rate of 1 every almost 200k hands for the last 5 years which translated into about 5 million hands or so.

[FloridaPhil]

Here's something fun to think about.  
 
Suppose Bob Dancer and I had a contest where we both started with a $1,000 bankroll.  We each played the same quarter 96% DW video poker game side by side and he used his 100% plus strategy and I used my Cheap Video Poker strategy.  I'm not at all sure he would be ahead after 40 hours of play.  Using a max coin strategy his Royals could only be $1,000 and his quad deuces $250 and while he's losing he is betting $1.25 a hand.  With my strategy, I play 80% of my hands at .25 a hand and the rest at $1.25, $1 and $5.  My possible jackpots range from a $50 quad deuce to a $4,000 royal.
 
This is laughable because I'm positive he would never play a negative expectation game and I'm definitely sure he wouldn't be bothered with playing quarters.  I have read every book Bob Dancer has written over and over again and I totally get it.   Bob Dancers strategy works for him because he only plays 100% plus games, plays perfectly and has an unlimited bankroll.  At least 95% of all the video poker players in the world don't have at least one of these skills or opportunities.  If you are among the 95% (that would be me) you have the choice of not playing at all or coming up with something better for your particular set of circumstances. 
 
If you use the Dancer Strategy on a negative expectation game, you don't play 100% perfectly or you have too small of a bankroll, the casino will beat you into the ground and you will lose your ass. I did that for years and I have the scars to prove it.  Don't misunderstand what I am saying. I am not disputing anything that Mr. Dancers says. It's usefulI, but I don't think all of it is relevant to my particular situation.   
 
 

[olds442jetaway]

I think Bob would say...Let's play a 100% game for a year and see who is ahead. I doubt you can even find a 100% Deuces game anymore. I also think Bob would want to have the same amount wagered for both parties. That of course wouldn't work with the Phil method. I hear you though Phil and for at least the last 5 years and maybe a couple of more, I have been playing very close to the Bob D method until recently. My result....30k-50k lost in each of the last 5 years. Since I have switched to a combination of your method and my Martingale clone method for the last couple of months, I am just about even and that is only hitting Royals every 200k hands or so as a long term average. I'm not speaking for Bob of course here, just taking my best guess on what he would want the rules to be. I have tried grinding out on 9/6 job games almost since the casino opened almost 20 years ago and never had a plus year. Factoring in comps and other things they offered though, I think I would pretty close to even valuing everything at retail. I have no regrets so far really. Met lots of nice and interesting people, saw some great shows and games, beautiful rooms and good food. I also like to drive and the hour or so drive up never bothers me. In a sense it is like stress relief. Yes, it has its own stress too, but is different than those at work or other everyday things in life. I think I have a toned down and cheaper version of the Billy Joe philosophy.    ...PS...Mohgean counts on every level 3 player to lose 50k or more per year. For a few years now, they have been punishing vp players by not paying Momentum dollars on vp machines of 98% and better. They only grant you tier/status points now that expire every month and can only be used for certain things and not purchases in the shops. I used to earn several thousand points in a year valued at 1 dollar each and it put a decent crimp in the losses. Not anymore. They have lost most of the vp players. Banks and banks of machines sit empty for all but Saturday night and even then some. That is their choice, but I think they had a good thing going with the many vp players and let most of it slip away.

[FloridaPhil]

Sounds like you made a good choice by switching your strategy.  I know I did.  Anyway, I'm off to the Hollywood Hard Rock for two days of video poker.   I'm hoping for another max coin Royal or Quad deuce.  Have a nice weekend.