Nice Jackpot Makes Lady Mad

[turtles1950]

Love to play, but sure not having any luck.  Luck is the answer to playing poker anyway.Gives me something to do during the day.  Good Luck to everyone.

[FloridaPhil]

When you're playing negative expectation games, you need to be lucky to win because the negative odds eat up all your winnings.   The only way to win on those games is to consistently hit jackpots at higher denominations than you normally play, then stash the money away and go back to playing cheap.   If you always play the same denomination and coins on a negative game, the more your play the more you lose.  Or, if you win a big jackpot at the higher denomination and keep playing at that denomination until you give it back, the results are the same.  Dancer points out that stopping when you are ahead or stopping when you are behind (setting limits) is futile.  He is right when using his strategy on positive games with perfect play.  I use limits, but I don't stop playing I change denomination.  There's a big difference between the two.  Dancer's first rule is that he never plays any game where he doesn't have an advantage.  I totally agree with Dancer's strategy given his rules of play, bankroll and skill level. If he lived in my shoes he might still be a database administrator because I play negative games with a limited bankroll and I don't play anywhere near 100% perfect.  My bet is that 99% of recreational players are more like me than Bob.

[alpax]

<DIV style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 10pt">When you're playing negative expectation games, you need to be lucky to win because the negative odds eat up all your winnings.   The only way to win on those games is to consistently hit jackpots at higher denominations than you normally play, then stash the money away and go back to playing cheap.   If you always play the same denomination and coins on a negative game, the more your play the more you lose.  Or, if you win a big jackpot at the higher denomination and keep playing at that denomination until you give it back, the results are the same.  Dancer points out that stopping when you are ahead or stopping when you are behind (setting limits) is futile.  He is right when using his strategy on positive games with perfect play.  I use limits, but I don't stop playing I change denomination.  There's a big difference between the two.  Dancer's first rule is that he never plays any game where he doesn't have an advantage.  I totally agree with Dancer's strategy given his rules of play, bankroll and skill level. If he lived in my shoes he might still be a database administrator because I play negative games with a limited bankroll and I don't play anywhere near 100% perfect.  My bet is that 99% of recreational players are more like me than Bob.

I understood the disclaimers on the website stated in bold, I do not have expectations to make money in the long run or to get back the money I've lost in enjoying slot machines and non-even money table games. I frequently visit WizardOfOdds site, and based on the computer simulations of millions and millions of play, Shackleford will challenge anyone to come up with a system on any game that wins in the long run aside from the MIT Blackjack card counting team. From what I observe while practicing NSUD, if a player loses a good amount playing the cheap progressive system on a given play session, they would have probably lost enormous amounts if playing the traditional max coin bets at the same constant denomination. The loss mitigation is the most appealing part to me.

I have not read the suggested reading Million Dollar Video Poker book from Bob Dancer, but reading stuff about him on these forums and on the web I understood his perspective on the game. Unfortunately I was too young to play during what I think was the golden age of video poker in the 1990s where I heard about Loose Deuces, 10/7 Jacks or Better, 5 credit 4OAK full pay deuces wild at higher denominations, and 10/6 DB-DDB at higher denominations. Dancer also values the comps that the casino offers and fights "tooth and nail" for them. I do not purposely play for free lunch but I will take what is offered to me, I play to maintain the next highest card level, to get contest entries or special promotions from the casinos although it will no where near make up for the losses.

I'm guessing Dancer's edge is

NSUD 99.728% + 0.33% cashback from play at South Point + all the mailer bounceback cash and comps > 100%. I will not imagine the other sources of income coming from Video Poker for Winners software and the books.

I play at least once a month at the casino (maybe two times if I won), I will try to enjoy playing 99%+ games as long as possible from judging by seeing stories about casinos getting tighter recently. I do not think I will ever achieve 100% return either, thus I consider myself a recreational player too.

[Vman96]

I'm guessing Dancer's edge is

NSUD 99.728% + 0.33% cashback from play at South Point + all the mailer bounceback cash and comps > 100%. I will not imagine the other sources of income coming from Video Poker for Winners software and the books.

I play at least once a month at the casino (maybe two times if I won), I will try to enjoy playing 99%+ games as long as possible from judging by seeing stories about casinos getting tighter recently. I do not think I will ever achieve 100% return either, thus I consider myself a recreational player too.

Bob's "bread and butter" game at South Point is 10 play 9/6 DDB with quick quads (99.65%) for dollars. He'll hammer the game on a double points day.

[alpax]

That works too! On vpFREE2 it turned out to be 0.3% cashback instead of 0.33%

99.65% + 2*0.3% = 100.25% + potential bounce back mailers (probably a few hundred dollars)

Single line DDB is devistating without a quad during a session, so makes sense to play QQ to help build those quads.

Just as a personal opinion, it is hard to imagine that the casino will allow Dancer to play at an advantage and offer him to teach classes that helps people get the most out of reducing the house's edge on video poker. I would not complain.

[FloridaPhil]

I've always wondered about that too.  Could a casino consider his celebrity and classes worth whatever he is able to win from them playing VP?   Maybe he teaches for free if they let him trash their profit margin at a video poker machine. 

[Vman96]

I've always wondered about that too.  Could a casino consider his celebrity and classes worth whatever he is able to win from them playing VP?   Maybe he teaches for free if they let him trash their profit margin at a video poker machine. 

Possibly. I don't think "double points" days are too often with the generous 0.3% base point value. Hell that makes one of my favorite games there is about "break even" with points 8/5 Bonus w/Double STP (99.67%). But I haven't hit SP hard enough to bother to sign up yet. g/f and I are very touristy.

As for the classes, I'm guessing they are hoping that they will get enough people that don't pay that good of attention and still make significant errors. Or their spouses will still play the slots. Not sure. The place is great for "gimmick VP" and I think looks pretty nice. Nicer than the Coast properties that Boyd took over (even though I like those too).

[FloridaPhil]

My guess is that most people that attend his classes are recreational players that are curious about video poker, but not that serious about sticking with strategies for very long.   They just want to have fun and not worry all that much about the long term cost.   It's good for all involved; the casino makes money, Bob makes money and the customer gets to play a little longer before they go back to playing slots.   I would like to take a class just to meet him in person.  Our 50th wedding aniversary is next year and it's our son's 25th.  I'm trying to talk everyone into a Vegas trip next year.  Maybe I can work it out on that trip. 

[alpax]

Hopefully Dancer will still be teaching and playing at a high level by next year dependent on the economics of the game. Sounds like Dancer maintains a good diet to be able to do so.

I have been reading his weekly articles on LasVegasAdvisor.com lately and the recent articles are related to contests/promotions. I think that is where I got the idea Dancer plays a ton of $2 NSU Deuces at 1000 hands an hour to get as many contest entries at South Point. I suppose that is the fallback game during non double points days.

However Dancer is willing to play $25 denominations if there is no limit to contest entries, I wonder what game is that if South Point does not offer that game at that high deomination.