A closer look...
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FloridaPhil
- Video Poker Master
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Re: A closer look...
I think the good Lord has more important things to do than help me with video poker, but he did give me a brain smart enough to figure out where my money was going. I doesn't matter if you play 5 cents a hand or $100, it's all the same game. You pay your money and you decide how much you are willing to pay to play.
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
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I spotted a significant error on the simulation, at the part where you go to quarter to dollar play at $25 (100 credit mark). When the credit mark went below 100, it changed to single coin quarter play when it should be switched back when it reaches the original $20 bill bet (80 credit). Adjusting this alone enables more dollar denomination bets and even more white tickets (about 50-70% more).
Simulated with the Airport Deuces paytable single coin and max coin optimal play from WizardOfOdds. I stretched the simulation length to annual play for 10 years.
Annual play being With 52 weekly trips at $300 bankroll, (780 $20 bill sessions). I do not think the average recreational players play 250k+ hands a year.
Over the entire year's span
I saw losses in the $1000s in 5 of those years (had 2 $1000 jackpots),
$2000s in 3 of those years (had 1 $1000 jackpot),
$3000+ in 2 of those years (had no $1000 jackpot).
That is a cheap price to pay for video poker. If I used up all $30 a week bounceback from the local casino and took the 0.1% cashback benefits, I may be able to play for a few hundreds on 300+ hours of video poker.
No max bet $1 royal flush in 10 years (2.5 million hands+), so it requires pure luck for that.
Simulated with the Airport Deuces paytable single coin and max coin optimal play from WizardOfOdds. I stretched the simulation length to annual play for 10 years.
Annual play being With 52 weekly trips at $300 bankroll, (780 $20 bill sessions). I do not think the average recreational players play 250k+ hands a year.
Over the entire year's span
I saw losses in the $1000s in 5 of those years (had 2 $1000 jackpots),
$2000s in 3 of those years (had 1 $1000 jackpot),
$3000+ in 2 of those years (had no $1000 jackpot).
That is a cheap price to pay for video poker. If I used up all $30 a week bounceback from the local casino and took the 0.1% cashback benefits, I may be able to play for a few hundreds on 300+ hours of video poker.
No max bet $1 royal flush in 10 years (2.5 million hands+), so it requires pure luck for that.
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FloridaPhil
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am
Before I switched, my average annual loss was between $8,000 and $12,000 a year. That sounds like a lot but it's peanuts compared to what most players are losing. Most players don't know or don't want to know the real numbers. One year I won over $15,000 in one day and managed to give it all back over the next 3 months. I don't worry about that now because my cost per hour is small and when I do hit a good jackpot, I keep it. Enough all ready, I'm getting ready to go to Biloxi in two weeks and I'm looking forward to it. I've decided to play my cheap strategy and if they bump me off the free room list, I'll pay for my own room. $120 bucks a night is better than losing $1,500.
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
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The losses from people who play slots and non-even money table games are no joke, it becomes very painful over time when it builds up several thousands in two or three years. Seems like the paytables are awful at Biloxi from the people (including yours) who post about it here, but at least the quarter cheap system play will bring it down to a manageable cost.
Fooler Deuces ($3000 - $5000) on a yearly basis loses on average $2000 more than Airport Deuces ($1000 - $3000) when starting with single quarter play. If Fooler Deuces is the only quarter option, it is best to cut down the amount of play by some. I tried 50 cent as the low denom and $1 as the high denom for Airport Deuces, and the losses were at $3000-5000 yearly. It probably need to be $2 denomination (or 4 folds the low denomination) for the system to even things out better.
I had to run the simulation for 17 years to land the first $1 max bet Royal Flush. The next one came in 6 years after. So the occasional one $20 bill in a high denomination machine pot shot attempts set the difference in coming out a winner for the year or not, keep that going.
Still looking to tweak the simulator, but it has provided good information to me so far.
Fooler Deuces ($3000 - $5000) on a yearly basis loses on average $2000 more than Airport Deuces ($1000 - $3000) when starting with single quarter play. If Fooler Deuces is the only quarter option, it is best to cut down the amount of play by some. I tried 50 cent as the low denom and $1 as the high denom for Airport Deuces, and the losses were at $3000-5000 yearly. It probably need to be $2 denomination (or 4 folds the low denomination) for the system to even things out better.
I had to run the simulation for 17 years to land the first $1 max bet Royal Flush. The next one came in 6 years after. So the occasional one $20 bill in a high denomination machine pot shot attempts set the difference in coming out a winner for the year or not, keep that going.
Still looking to tweak the simulator, but it has provided good information to me so far.
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1913
- Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm
More notes about the simulation, to compare it against the strategy to MAX bet every hand.
I've ran about 30 years of play on:
a. Cheap Video Poker Strategy Fooler Deuces - 52 weeks of $300 Bankroll (15 $20 bills) playing 25c/$1
b. Cheap Video Poker Strategy Airport Deuces - 52 weeks of $300 Bankroll (15 $20 bills) playing 25c/$1
c. Max Bet Quarters Fooler Deuces - Max bet 25c so $1.25 per hand for 250,000 hands
d. Max Bet Quarters Airport Deuces - Max bet 25c for $1.25 per hand for 250,000 hands
Based on the time I've spent simulating the Cheap Video Poker Strategy (I never ever doubted its effectiveness since I took the time to read the website) I would have to say it does live up to its purpose, you can play about 240,000 - 290,000 hands a year if you play once a week with $300 bankroll, and more often (not ALWAYS) be able to lose less money to the casino than someone betting MAX quarters on 250,000 hands a year. It is not always true where you win $1000 jackpot hand during the year and retain it, you will most likely still be in a deficit by the end of the year most often, unless you hit a 4 of them in a year and/or $1 max royal as a predominantly quarter player.
For Fooler Deuces MAX Bet 250,000 hands, the player loses about $7000-$8000 on average of the time, $3800 if they are lucky, or lose even can lose more than $10,000.
For Airport Deuces MAX BET, the player loses about $3500-$4500 on average on the simulation, but losses can mount to $7000-$8000, or $1500 on a good year. There is a small possibility Airport Deuces can do better than the cheap strategy which is $1000-$3000 loss, and $4000 loss on a bad run.
One of the Fooler Deuces Max Bet one year trials came out a winner of $76.25 after 250,000 hands; this required 13 Royal Flushes and 41 Quad Deuces jackpots to hit over the span.
I was able to hit a $1 MAX Bet Royal on the Cheap Strategy on Average about 1 in 20-23 years of simulation, when it hit, I was up $3500 for the year.
I can post the 118 hand sequence that led from a $20 bill into a $4000 jackpot upon request. It is extremely rare.
Though the 250,000 MAX bet hands will lead to $312,500 coin in. Though it has already been mentioned, the cheap system is not beneficial for comps from the casino, the 240,000-280,000 hands make up roughly $120,000-$130,000 coin in. But on average you will save $2000 (Airport) or $3500 (Fooler) real money a year over 250,000 hands, I still think you will get free rooms for $100,000+ coin in annually. The simulation does not account for the casino club card cash back which is about 0.1% on average, so you get about $200 more than the cheap system playing MAX bet.
I've ran about 30 years of play on:
a. Cheap Video Poker Strategy Fooler Deuces - 52 weeks of $300 Bankroll (15 $20 bills) playing 25c/$1
b. Cheap Video Poker Strategy Airport Deuces - 52 weeks of $300 Bankroll (15 $20 bills) playing 25c/$1
c. Max Bet Quarters Fooler Deuces - Max bet 25c so $1.25 per hand for 250,000 hands
d. Max Bet Quarters Airport Deuces - Max bet 25c for $1.25 per hand for 250,000 hands
Based on the time I've spent simulating the Cheap Video Poker Strategy (I never ever doubted its effectiveness since I took the time to read the website) I would have to say it does live up to its purpose, you can play about 240,000 - 290,000 hands a year if you play once a week with $300 bankroll, and more often (not ALWAYS) be able to lose less money to the casino than someone betting MAX quarters on 250,000 hands a year. It is not always true where you win $1000 jackpot hand during the year and retain it, you will most likely still be in a deficit by the end of the year most often, unless you hit a 4 of them in a year and/or $1 max royal as a predominantly quarter player.
For Fooler Deuces MAX Bet 250,000 hands, the player loses about $7000-$8000 on average of the time, $3800 if they are lucky, or lose even can lose more than $10,000.
For Airport Deuces MAX BET, the player loses about $3500-$4500 on average on the simulation, but losses can mount to $7000-$8000, or $1500 on a good year. There is a small possibility Airport Deuces can do better than the cheap strategy which is $1000-$3000 loss, and $4000 loss on a bad run.
One of the Fooler Deuces Max Bet one year trials came out a winner of $76.25 after 250,000 hands; this required 13 Royal Flushes and 41 Quad Deuces jackpots to hit over the span.
I was able to hit a $1 MAX Bet Royal on the Cheap Strategy on Average about 1 in 20-23 years of simulation, when it hit, I was up $3500 for the year.
I can post the 118 hand sequence that led from a $20 bill into a $4000 jackpot upon request. It is extremely rare.
Though the 250,000 MAX bet hands will lead to $312,500 coin in. Though it has already been mentioned, the cheap system is not beneficial for comps from the casino, the 240,000-280,000 hands make up roughly $120,000-$130,000 coin in. But on average you will save $2000 (Airport) or $3500 (Fooler) real money a year over 250,000 hands, I still think you will get free rooms for $100,000+ coin in annually. The simulation does not account for the casino club card cash back which is about 0.1% on average, so you get about $200 more than the cheap system playing MAX bet.
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FloridaPhil
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 6229
- Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am
Interesting information. I started playing single coin $5 machines about 2 months ago. So far it's been profitable and has accounted for two of my big wins over that time. I don't think I've invested more than $500 in $5 play since I started and I've won over $2500. I highly recommend giving this a shot once in a while, just don't start playing them all the time or the odds will do there thing. I have found it's better to space your $20 shots out at least an hour apart. It seems like luck runs in streaks like that. For example, you can play all morning and nothing happens then in the afternoon things get better. If you play enough video poker, you'll witness this many times. This would be a good topic to talk about...
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm
I am starting to believe that those successful pot shot hits from the single coin $5 machines played a large factor in you coming out ahead for the year. The dealt royal flush at $1 max bat helps too, but that happens extremely rare and you got it on your first year playing this new system. I would say the pot shot has a better chance on making a greater impact than I thought it did since running a weekly $300 bankroll simulation shows about 0 to 2 $1000 jackpot hit on the cheap strategy starting from quarters (so max dollar bet Quad Deuces or max quarter bet Natural Royal Flush). For the 250,000 hand player, getting 4 $1000 jackpots worth will more often put them in positive for the year. These pot shot attempts will be an good enhancement to the strategy, but like all negative expectation games, it comes at a risk of creating even bigger deficits on the bankroll.
Going back to my previous post, I did not tend to say the $1000 jackpot will not last the entire year for everyone, I misinterpreted, the results may vary between recreational players, personally I do not think the majority play near 250,000 hands a year unless they are passionate. But for people that play 250,000+ hands (some people here play 1 million!) Some years are good some years are bad, its the ebbs and flow of Video Poker I suppose. Since VP can be very sporadic, I think a more fair comparison between the cheap progressive system and all MAX bet will be a simulation of two players playing at the same time seeing the same hands where the strategic player will make different bets depending on the outcome.
More often than not, the cheap strategy does let you play 10,000-30,000 hands than a person who plays max bet all the time while saving you a few thousand dollars for 50 all day play sessions a year.
Going back to my previous post, I did not tend to say the $1000 jackpot will not last the entire year for everyone, I misinterpreted, the results may vary between recreational players, personally I do not think the majority play near 250,000 hands a year unless they are passionate. But for people that play 250,000+ hands (some people here play 1 million!) Some years are good some years are bad, its the ebbs and flow of Video Poker I suppose. Since VP can be very sporadic, I think a more fair comparison between the cheap progressive system and all MAX bet will be a simulation of two players playing at the same time seeing the same hands where the strategic player will make different bets depending on the outcome.
More often than not, the cheap strategy does let you play 10,000-30,000 hands than a person who plays max bet all the time while saving you a few thousand dollars for 50 all day play sessions a year.
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FloridaPhil
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am
The odds of running $20 up to $100 or more playing single coin $5 deuces wild is actually pretty decent as long as you cash out. There are lots of good things that can happen and some of them are wonderful! The worst that can happen is you lose $20. The odds of plugging away at a max coin strategy attempting to duplicate Bob Dancer's results will put you in the poor house. I'm sure 99.9% of the players on this forum are like me and don't have what it takes and won't have his 2001 luck either. The beauty of video poker is that everyone can play the way they enjoy the most. My strategy allows me to play a lot of video poker on a budget and it satisfies my desire to occasionally have a chance at a really nice jackpot. The fact that I've hit more than my share this past year is nice, but it's not all there is to it. Have fun, enjoy yourself and if your losses start making those things a distant memory, try my strategy and see if it works for you. What have you got to lose?
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1913
- Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm
I've run a simulation of 1000, 10000, and even 100000 [do not think we will reach that ever] potshots on $5 Demon Airport Deuces a few times. Games go by really quick so you do not get to play very hands. The average $20 bill lasts about 8.5 hands.
Switching from $5 single coin to $1 MAX Bet increases the long run return due to the Royal Flush bonus. I see the power of how it can turnaround a poor $300 cheap single quarter session with just a few $20, may salvage half of those losses.
Roughly 10.8% of the time a $20 bill will turn into a $100+ cashout ticket.
The $20 bill session ends in Quad Deuces and/or Natural Royal Flush about 0.17-0.18% of the time, so 1 in every 600 pot shots roughly. So getting 2 $1000 $5 single coin winners in a short span were luck.
I am re-verifying all the calculations, but back to back 4OfAKind/FullHouse at any point is a clear ticket cashout.
The following are in quarters, so $5 single coin is 20 credits. And a Max bet $5 is 100 credits.
Session #919
Number Of Hands Played: 4
Number Of Single Coin Low Denomination Played: 0
Number Of Max Coin Low Denomination Played: 0
Number Of Single Coin Higher Denomination Played: 1
Number Of Max Coin Higher Denomination Played: 3
Ticket Amount in Quarter Credits: 440
Hand #1 - Bet Type SingleCoinHigherDenomination - Bet Amount 20 - Outcome 4 of a Kind - Win Amount 80 - Credit Balance 140
Hand #2 - Bet Type MaxCoinHigherDenomination - Bet Amount 100 - Outcome 3 of a Kind - Win Amount 100 - Credit Balance 140
Hand #3 - Bet Type MaxCoinHigherDenomination - Bet Amount 100 - Outcome 3 of a Kind - Win Amount 100 - Credit Balance 140
Hand #4 - Bet Type MaxCoinHigherDenomination - Bet Amount 100 - Outcome 4 of a Kind - Win Amount 400 - Credit Balance 440
You put in $20 and it spits out $110 in this case in just 4 straight hands. A max bet Straight Flush or better finish will allow out of the pot shot will allow the 5000+ hand cheap quarter play session for free.
Switching from $5 single coin to $1 MAX Bet increases the long run return due to the Royal Flush bonus. I see the power of how it can turnaround a poor $300 cheap single quarter session with just a few $20, may salvage half of those losses.
Roughly 10.8% of the time a $20 bill will turn into a $100+ cashout ticket.
The $20 bill session ends in Quad Deuces and/or Natural Royal Flush about 0.17-0.18% of the time, so 1 in every 600 pot shots roughly. So getting 2 $1000 $5 single coin winners in a short span were luck.
I am re-verifying all the calculations, but back to back 4OfAKind/FullHouse at any point is a clear ticket cashout.
The following are in quarters, so $5 single coin is 20 credits. And a Max bet $5 is 100 credits.
Session #919
Number Of Hands Played: 4
Number Of Single Coin Low Denomination Played: 0
Number Of Max Coin Low Denomination Played: 0
Number Of Single Coin Higher Denomination Played: 1
Number Of Max Coin Higher Denomination Played: 3
Ticket Amount in Quarter Credits: 440
Hand #1 - Bet Type SingleCoinHigherDenomination - Bet Amount 20 - Outcome 4 of a Kind - Win Amount 80 - Credit Balance 140
Hand #2 - Bet Type MaxCoinHigherDenomination - Bet Amount 100 - Outcome 3 of a Kind - Win Amount 100 - Credit Balance 140
Hand #3 - Bet Type MaxCoinHigherDenomination - Bet Amount 100 - Outcome 3 of a Kind - Win Amount 100 - Credit Balance 140
Hand #4 - Bet Type MaxCoinHigherDenomination - Bet Amount 100 - Outcome 4 of a Kind - Win Amount 400 - Credit Balance 440
You put in $20 and it spits out $110 in this case in just 4 straight hands. A max bet Straight Flush or better finish will allow out of the pot shot will allow the 5000+ hand cheap quarter play session for free.
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FloridaPhil
- Video Poker Master
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- Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am
I have always thought that 10% was about the percentage of good days over bad in video poker. Over the years when I played same denomination max coins it always seemed that you averaged 8-9 crap days and one where you couldn't lose. The 8 1/2 average hands is also more than I thought. For me single coin $5 is better than max coin dollars because I switch to max coin when I win 4 coins on anything over my $100 threshold. If you hit a good hand doing this with a $25 bet, it really pays. I would rather have a shot at a $20,000 Royal or a $5,000 quad deuce. This all assumes you play the big machines as a pot shot and don't do it all the time. When you get lucky on those machines and don't give it back, you boost your bankroll big time. This is how I've been growing my stash and it's working for now. I believe how much you lose is more important than how much you win. This is also true in real life. If you read Bob's books you can sense how frugal he is in his personal life. This most likely influences his video poker play and helps him make better decisions. Being cheap is a good thing in gambling.
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