It really is all about LUCK

[wildman49]

About 8 weeks ago I started to play the one coin strategy 100% of the time that FloridaPhil has shown us all. That same day 8 weeks ago I showed a Buddy this same strategy. Just to show everyone how luck plays into this game we all love so much, here is something that will blow your mind. My buddy has hit the 4 deuces in deuces wild 7 times at the max bet! Now we both play the same machines, the same game, and the same strategy. I have NOT hit the 4 deuces on the max bet on the 5 coin machines we both play! I have hit them about 12 times on one coin but no max bet hits.I play more hands per week then he does! He is far from perfect play. Yet the poker gods are with him. No matter how perfect you play this shows one thing, you need good ol fashion LUCK!

[alpax]

Stating the obvious ...

But I would agree its better to be lucky than good.

[FloridaPhil]

Luck is the most important factor by far.  How you manage your money is a close second and can improve your luck because you get more chances at being lucky.  If I walk into the high limit casino, put in a $20 and hit a $1000 quad deuce on the first draw, it's luck.  The fact that I have money left to do that is money management. One of the things your buddy may be doing is what I call "Pushing the System". If  I'm above $20 and get a decent run of 3-4 hands or more, I occasionally stay with max coins for a few more hands.  Switching back to single coin when you lose a hand is the rule, but sometimes you can push it and hit a max coin quad deuce.  Just don't give your whole $20 back. 

[alpax]

Money management is turning out to be an important factor when playing negative expectation games, I think it also attributes towards Phil's success this year, who has become good at it. Hard to determine what demoniation to play, but hitting jackpot hands at highest denomination would be the most optimal.

I know Dancer tells us that money management is meaningless and the WizardOfOdds think it is worthless (only play until its not fun anymore, losing a lot is not fun I suppose), but that seems only apply to advantage players or those with the gigantic bankrolls. Most of us who are not Nevada or Arizona locals do not have access to advantage opportunities stand to lose in the long run.

I came back from a horrible trip from playing JoB today, the worst I personally experienced (probably not the last time). Long story short, I had Empty Pocket Syndrome so I had to go to the ATM to at least try to play $1/$5 max bet NSUD potshots. I still have not hit a single line Royal Flush, so I have been playing at 97% ER or less this year even though I have been mostly playing 99.5%+ games and the 9/6 98.98% DDB. (Forced to play dollar denomination to get those pay tables). I need to rethink my play after if I ever get most of my return on investment on JoB.

[olds442jetaway]

About 8 weeks ago I started to play the one coin strategy 100% of the time that FloridaPhil has shown us all. That same day 8 weeks ago I showed a Buddy this same strategy. Just to show everyone how luck plays into this game we all love so much, here is something that will blow your mind. My buddy has hit the 4 deuces in deuces wild 7 times at the max bet! Now we both play the same machines, the same game, and the same strategy. I have NOT hit the 4 deuces on the max bet on the 5 coin machines we both play! I have hit them about 12 times on one coin but no max bet hits.I play more hands per week then he does! He is far from perfect play. Yet the poker gods are with him. No matter how perfect you play this shows one thing, you need good ol fashion LUCK!

     Both of these stories are ancient history, but just emphasize how important luck can be. Some years ago, I was walking by a vp machine and noticed a hand that was not completed with one coin bet and nobody was around. It was in the middle of the night. Four to Royal was showing. I waited a couple of more minutes in case someone showed up then held the cards and hit deal. Up pops the Royal.
     The wife and I have made several trips to Aruba before it got so expensive to fly there and stay right on the beach. One trip after check in and before taking the elevator up with the bags, I popped into the casino with a ten dollar bill. There was a nickel vp machine right near the door. First hand out pops the Royal in job.
     At the end of our stay that time, we were still down about 400 bucks and ready to board the shuttle to the airport. A casino host pops out right near the lobby and hands me 4 hundred dollar bills. " Have a safe trip and we would love to have you folks back here someday. " It worked because we made 4 more trips since. 3 of the 4 trips the host gave us our losses back in cash. The other trip she was on vacation. We since have stayed on touch by email. One year, she offered us a completely paid for trip down there all inclusive even airfare. We couldn't go due to medical issues with the folks, but really appreciated the invite.
     Oh...I forgot until just now the rest of the story. This particular hotel/casino has an informal party and drawing for a completely free trip the following year. There was a happy newlywed couple sitting at our table. I was on the way up to put our entry in the barrel. I offered to drop theirs in too. After they gave it to me, I folded up all 4 corners a little and dropped in their entry. They won the drawing and the free trip for the following year. We were glad because they never would have been able to go back due to financial reasons.

[OTABILL]

Most of us who are not Nevada or Arizona locals do not have access to advantage opportunities stand to lose in the long run.

I have encountered only negative expectation games here in Arizona with the exception when progressives get unusually high. I need to check out the Fort in that it seems they now have 10/6 DDB.

[alpax]

[QUOTE=alpax] Most of us who are not Nevada or Arizona locals do not have access to advantage opportunities stand to lose in the long run.

I have encountered only negative expectation games here in Arizona with the exception when progressives get unusually high. I need to check out the Fort in that it seems they now have 10/6 DDB. [/QUOTE]

I read that thread on the Casinos forum and just assumed they allow positive expectation games, unless it is 40/10/6 which is slightly below 100%. I would play either one if I had local access to it.

[wildman49]

Luck is the most important factor by far.  How you manage your money is a close second and can improve your luck because you get more chances at being lucky.  If I walk into the high limit casino, put in a $20 and hit a $1000 quad deuce on the first draw, it's luck.  The fact that I have money left to do that is money management. One of the things your buddy may be doing is what I call "Pushing the System". If  I'm above $20 and get a decent run of 3-4 hands or more, I occasionally stay with max coins for a few more hands.  Switching back to single coin when you lose a hand is the rule, but sometimes you can push it and hit a max coin quad deuce.  Just don't give your whole $20 back. 





I did ask if him did drop back to 1 coin after no pay and he said yes. He don't know much about perfect play so my thinking is he is after the 4 deuces more then other hands. That could get you more max bet hands.

[FloridaPhil]

As far as perfect play is concerned, I use Dancer's Video Poker for Winners to train and can play at the advanced level with 99% accuracy for hours at a time.  I am fully aware that hand strategy changes when switching from single to max coins.  I have no life, so I play VPW at home for at least 2-3 hours a day.The Cheap Strategy says to drop back to one coin after each losing hand, I do this 90% of the time.  But, after you play this way for a long period of time you will be able to recognize and take advantage of patterns.  For example, if I put in $20 and the machine takes off  on a sustained up streak,  I push max coin play a few hands until it get 3-4 bad hands then switch back.  This frequently allows me to extend the streak and keep it going.   I've played single coin/max coin deuces for so long now that I frequently guess right, at least so far. There's nothing magic or mysterious about my style of play.  Jackpots happen, all I'm doing is placing a large number of tiny bets and a small number of much bigger bets.  Odds are I'm going to hit some of the big bets and when they happen I stash them away instead of feeding them back into the machine.  You can do it too if you stop trying to be Bob Dancer and just give it a try.. 

[alpax]

There has been a good number of times where I get a 4 credit win then go max bet, lose, and then go back to single coin (in my case lowered denomination) only to win 4 credits the following hand. I know each hand is an independent event, sometimes I get the urge to play 2 max bet hands.