It really is all about LUCK

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
FloridaPhil
Video Poker Master
Posts: 6229
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am

Re: It really is all about LUCK

Post by FloridaPhil »




Yes, that does happen.  It indicates you are probably in a decent run.  I noticed that myself and made the decision to push max coins a few hands when I see that.   It's all about being aware of what's happening to the cards.   Most players don't observe the cards that much because they believe the hands will be totally random and they just keep plugging away hoping for a jackpot.  Positive runs in deuces come because the deuces start appearing more often.   Deuces is the most predictable video poker game and I believe you can take advantage of that fact.  I'm not saying you can become a millionaire playing deuces wild. I'm saying you have a better chance of staying even with the game and when a high denomination jackpot happens you can keep it instead of giving it back.  I do occasionally have a bad day, but I break even or win money on most of my trips. 



alpax
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Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm

Post by alpax »

I was thinking of the appropriate time (despite video poker being all independent events) to play two max bet hands after a 4 credit win.

I observed most of the winning hands contains a wild deuce. Blackjack has card counters (cards are removed from the shoe to affect odds, VP not the same), so probably do a count with deuces dealt hands in order to tinker with the law of averages?

A player is dealt a Deuce on the opening hand 1 in every 3 hands; for 2 Deuces 1 in 25; for 3 Deuces 1 in 576; for 4 Deuces 1 in 54175.

I would say if you do not get a deuce you add 1 to the score, if you get a deuce you subtract 3. On a 4 credit win, on the max bet hand, if you lose and the score is 10 or above play another max bet and reset the score to 0.

I am fully aware there is no system that beats the house on a negative expectation game, but ill give it a try next time.

FloridaPhil
Video Poker Master
Posts: 6229
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am

Post by FloridaPhil »


I don't believe there is any math formula you can concoct that will predict exactly when to bet bigger.  If there was I would be in Monaco right now sitting on my yacht .  On the other hand, there definitely are trends especially in wild card games.  If you hit a streak and your $20 runs up to $40 or more, I think it's worth a couple more max hands to see if it continues.   One funny thing that I did find out over the last year or so.  Sometimes a new scheme will work at first, then it dies.   The Cheap System is the only strategy I have found that works consistently enough for me to stay with long term and I haven't found anything better so far.

alpax
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm

Post by alpax »

I am not saying this formula will guarantee to work, the numbers work out so if you are behind 4 paces of getting at least a deuce dealt on your opening hand (about 1 in every 2.5 hands), to bet an extra max bet after a loss at max bet. The odds of winning naturally without a deuce is tough besides the 3 of a kind in Deuces Wild, playing non-wild games, on average it is 1 in 80+ hands for Flush/Straight/Full House. I know its possible to get more deuces on the draw, but the chances of winning with the opening hand with a deuces increases a lot.

Card counting works because in blackjack, the cards dealt affects the outcome of the next hand, the count determines the bet amount. Not always does the player win on a big bet, but they see a favorable opportunity. Video poker will not since its supposedly independent, so I am relying on the law of averages in this case. I gotta get into the habit of moving around machines, I play entire session on one machine most of the time.

I read the updated content on the website, I also agree that when you are feeling like you are riding a good streak betting max for more hands or higher denominations is a good situation too.

alpax
Video Poker Master
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm

Post by alpax »

duplicate

Lucky Larry
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Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:35 pm

Post by Lucky Larry »

Real Estate - Location, Location, Location

Video Poker - Luck, Luck, Luck    

LL

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