I will speak for myself and say I will not prefer to play 9/6 or 9/7 TDB over full pay Jacks or Better (I really hope this will still last for years to come). I am an experienced recreational gambler and have paid for my ignorance from the past for playing games with high house edges. Most people do not pay attention to their losses before it gets too late.
I do not doubt people can lose year after year playing TDB. What is the chance of losing 3 years in a row playing 100k hands of 9/6 TDB (which is the 2nd best known pay schedule for this game)? The answer is about 38% and that is a good chance of it happening.
I've set the starting bankroll to be $50,000 which is slightly more than the average household income in the nation. I ran it for 100k hands which has a chance of loss at 72.7%!
.7270 ^ 3 = 38.424%
The probability of losing more than $20,000 after playing 100k hands of $1 9/6 TDB is slightly above 20%. I follow posts by ko king, but I do not know what casino this is played at or what offers are received for that kind of play. Is it really worth that kind of risk? Even if a player is on the lucky end of the curve in TDB, chances are the casino will not send mailer offers.
Mr. Dancer's criticism of a person's play is usually constructive in my opinion. Whether people take it to heart and make adjustments to improve upon their play is up to their own. It is not only for the people that rely on VP to make a living, it applies to anyone who plays considerable amount of video poker.
The only person (or visitor) I feel less sorry for is the original poster of this post who plays 8/5 TDB at the Venetian, a multi billion dollar strip casino.
When it Sucks.....It Really Sucks
My advice to those that find Jacks or Better really that boring is to play it for a few hands at the high limit room. A full house at $5 denom does pay almost as much as a 5s thru Kings quad at $1 DDB/TDB, but you will not have to wait it out. Thus far no one has called me out on playing JoB exclusively, I have not posted a W2G win and I am not ashamed of that at all. My bankroll and financial well being is more important than someone else's opinion or trying to show off a jackpot here.
Pay Tables: So far......So bad
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1913
- Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm
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FAA
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 8569
- Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am
I still find 9/6 JOB fun. A bad day yesterday. I lost $50 in just under three hours. I blame myself for not leaving the machine. It really cast a pall over me. I just got too complacent, expecting to win or breK even all the time.
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onemoretry
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2856
- Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2009 8:00 pm
My advice to those that find Jacks or Better really that boring is to play it for a few hands at the high limit room
Or, play multiline, where dealt hands like full houses or quads really boost your credits.
Or, play multiline, where dealt hands like full houses or quads really boost your credits.
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ko king
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 670
- Joined: Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:13 pm
I will speak for myself and say I will not prefer to play 9/6 or 9/7 TDB over full pay Jacks or Better (I really hope this will still last for years to come). I am an experienced recreational gambler and have paid for my ignorance from the past for playing games with high house edges. Most people do not pay attention to their losses before it gets too late.
I do not doubt people can lose year after year playing TDB. What is the chance of losing 3 years in a row playing 100k hands of 9/6 TDB (which is the 2nd best known pay schedule for this game)? The answer is about 38% and that is a good chance of it happening.
I've set the starting bankroll to be $50,000 which is slightly more than the average household income in the nation. I ran it for 100k hands which has a chance of loss at 72.7%!
.7270 ^ 3 = 38.424%
The probability of losing more than $20,000 after playing 100k hands of $1 9/6 TDB is slightly above 20%. I follow posts by ko king, but I do not know what casino this is played at or what offers are received for that kind of play. Is it really worth that kind of risk? Even if a player is on the lucky end of the curve in TDB, chances are the casino will not send mailer offers.
Mr. Dancer's criticism of a person's play is usually constructive in my opinion. Whether people take it to heart and make adjustments to improve upon their play is up to their own. It is not only for the people that rely on VP to make a living, it applies to anyone who plays considerable amount of video poker.
The only person (or visitor) I feel less sorry for is the original poster of this post who plays 8/5 TDB at the Venetian, a multi billion dollar strip casino.
When it Sucks.....It Really Sucks
My advice to those that find Jacks or Better really that boring is to play it for a few hands at the high limit room. A full house at $5 denom does pay almost as much as a 5s thru Kings quad at $1 DDB/TDB, but you will not have to wait it out. Thus far no one has called me out on playing JoB exclusively, I have not posted a W2G win and I am not ashamed of that at all. My bankroll and financial well being is more important than someone else's opinion or trying to show off a jackpot here.
Maybe I just don't have a good understanding of the game, I thought I did because I read a few books many years ago and played the game for so many years. What many like yourself fail to understand is I fully expect to lose, I don't have a problem with that. Let me be perfectly clear, I fully expect to lose year after year. Positive expectation games are illegal in this area, I have no idea why but that is the law. Over the years I've hit 100's of W-2G's, never posted a single one, I've never claimed I win money playing except for 1 year in which I finished just over $6K for the year. I know the game can have some wild swings and that's what made it exciting for me. I remember one year I went 13 consecutive times and didn't hit a single W-2G, lost about $26K during that streatch, came roaring back, still ended up losing for the year but I couldn't gripe because for the amount of hands played I pretty much got what I deserved. What I'm having a problem with or understanding is why the numbers/statistics don't seem to matter anymore at least in my case. I never really had a complaint until the casinos started to lose players in groves, when the casinos were packed and money was flowing like wine I could always make sense of my losses, maybe one year I didn't catch that extra royal flush or I finished the year missing a few different premium hands. It's not just about missing different premium hands now, for me it's about coming up short on all the premium hands on a consistant basis, that's what I can't understand. I was always told regardless of what game or denomination you choose to play the statistics always remain the same, yes there's variance but it's not supposed to be consistant. When I can look at my losses for the year and see the reasons it really bothers me now. When I can sit down at the end of the year and say here's why I lost so much this year, I missed hitting aces w/kicker 2 times, I missed hiting 2's,3's and 4's w/kicker 4 times for the amount of hands I played, yes it really bothers and concerns me. I couldn't look at the spreadsheet and say I came up short on every single premium hand, I can now. I hit my small quads like clockwork, they're always there, it's the missing premium hands that are killing me. Is it time to play JOB, maybe, probably but that still doesn't satisfy my quest to understand why my luck turned so sour at another game. Look, here's what it boils down to, when the casinos were packed the premium hands were there, when the casinos became empty the premium hands got tougher to find.
I do not doubt people can lose year after year playing TDB. What is the chance of losing 3 years in a row playing 100k hands of 9/6 TDB (which is the 2nd best known pay schedule for this game)? The answer is about 38% and that is a good chance of it happening.
I've set the starting bankroll to be $50,000 which is slightly more than the average household income in the nation. I ran it for 100k hands which has a chance of loss at 72.7%!
.7270 ^ 3 = 38.424%
The probability of losing more than $20,000 after playing 100k hands of $1 9/6 TDB is slightly above 20%. I follow posts by ko king, but I do not know what casino this is played at or what offers are received for that kind of play. Is it really worth that kind of risk? Even if a player is on the lucky end of the curve in TDB, chances are the casino will not send mailer offers.
Mr. Dancer's criticism of a person's play is usually constructive in my opinion. Whether people take it to heart and make adjustments to improve upon their play is up to their own. It is not only for the people that rely on VP to make a living, it applies to anyone who plays considerable amount of video poker.
The only person (or visitor) I feel less sorry for is the original poster of this post who plays 8/5 TDB at the Venetian, a multi billion dollar strip casino.
When it Sucks.....It Really Sucks
My advice to those that find Jacks or Better really that boring is to play it for a few hands at the high limit room. A full house at $5 denom does pay almost as much as a 5s thru Kings quad at $1 DDB/TDB, but you will not have to wait it out. Thus far no one has called me out on playing JoB exclusively, I have not posted a W2G win and I am not ashamed of that at all. My bankroll and financial well being is more important than someone else's opinion or trying to show off a jackpot here.
Maybe I just don't have a good understanding of the game, I thought I did because I read a few books many years ago and played the game for so many years. What many like yourself fail to understand is I fully expect to lose, I don't have a problem with that. Let me be perfectly clear, I fully expect to lose year after year. Positive expectation games are illegal in this area, I have no idea why but that is the law. Over the years I've hit 100's of W-2G's, never posted a single one, I've never claimed I win money playing except for 1 year in which I finished just over $6K for the year. I know the game can have some wild swings and that's what made it exciting for me. I remember one year I went 13 consecutive times and didn't hit a single W-2G, lost about $26K during that streatch, came roaring back, still ended up losing for the year but I couldn't gripe because for the amount of hands played I pretty much got what I deserved. What I'm having a problem with or understanding is why the numbers/statistics don't seem to matter anymore at least in my case. I never really had a complaint until the casinos started to lose players in groves, when the casinos were packed and money was flowing like wine I could always make sense of my losses, maybe one year I didn't catch that extra royal flush or I finished the year missing a few different premium hands. It's not just about missing different premium hands now, for me it's about coming up short on all the premium hands on a consistant basis, that's what I can't understand. I was always told regardless of what game or denomination you choose to play the statistics always remain the same, yes there's variance but it's not supposed to be consistant. When I can look at my losses for the year and see the reasons it really bothers me now. When I can sit down at the end of the year and say here's why I lost so much this year, I missed hitting aces w/kicker 2 times, I missed hiting 2's,3's and 4's w/kicker 4 times for the amount of hands I played, yes it really bothers and concerns me. I couldn't look at the spreadsheet and say I came up short on every single premium hand, I can now. I hit my small quads like clockwork, they're always there, it's the missing premium hands that are killing me. Is it time to play JOB, maybe, probably but that still doesn't satisfy my quest to understand why my luck turned so sour at another game. Look, here's what it boils down to, when the casinos were packed the premium hands were there, when the casinos became empty the premium hands got tougher to find.
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1913
- Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm
[QUOTE]. What many like yourself fail to understand is I fully expect to lose, I don't have a problem with that. Let me be perfectly clear, I fully expect to lose year after year. Positive expectation games are illegal in this area, I have no idea why but that is the law.[/QUOTE]
I also expect to lose year after year as well, but I am trying to keep that to the lowest amount possible. It is exactly what Phil stated, how much people are willing to lose to experience their own satisfaction of hitting jackpots. Most people are forced to play negative expectation games as it is illegal to have over 100% payouts in most jurisdictions, so you are not alone. Not many places has full pay Jacks or Better, I am not sure where you frequent; you've mentioned Tunica a few times on the forum which has it according to posts made by Vman. These big premium quads with kickers from TDB do not always occur on its average cycles, and that is the reasons the variance is so high.
I cannot withstand the chance of losing several thousands of dollars although there is the chance to win several thousands. I know billyjoe can with stand the pain of TDB, but not sure of anyone else that can. I probably play half the amount at 50k rounds annually. It is entirely possible to further reduce your expected loss by following the questions Mr. Dancer stated as it is not only applicable for those that only play the game for a living. Playing at a place that offers comps and promotions does soften the blow of losing, at least from what I've personally experienced.
I also expect to lose year after year as well, but I am trying to keep that to the lowest amount possible. It is exactly what Phil stated, how much people are willing to lose to experience their own satisfaction of hitting jackpots. Most people are forced to play negative expectation games as it is illegal to have over 100% payouts in most jurisdictions, so you are not alone. Not many places has full pay Jacks or Better, I am not sure where you frequent; you've mentioned Tunica a few times on the forum which has it according to posts made by Vman. These big premium quads with kickers from TDB do not always occur on its average cycles, and that is the reasons the variance is so high.
I cannot withstand the chance of losing several thousands of dollars although there is the chance to win several thousands. I know billyjoe can with stand the pain of TDB, but not sure of anyone else that can. I probably play half the amount at 50k rounds annually. It is entirely possible to further reduce your expected loss by following the questions Mr. Dancer stated as it is not only applicable for those that only play the game for a living. Playing at a place that offers comps and promotions does soften the blow of losing, at least from what I've personally experienced.
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1913
- Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm
Wizard of Odds Video Poker Strategy Analyzer for 9-6 TDB
These two premium quads alone have higher variances than an entire video poker game.
Four Aces with any 2, 3, 4 has a variance factor of 44.94 with a frequency of 1 in 14,205 with perfect play.
Four 2s, 3s, 4s with any Ace,2,3,4 has a variance factor of 27.47 with a frequency of 1 in 5795 with perfect play.
A small increase in variance factor number represents an exponential increase in the possible outcomes of the game.
These two premium quads alone have higher variances than an entire video poker game.
Four Aces with any 2, 3, 4 has a variance factor of 44.94 with a frequency of 1 in 14,205 with perfect play.
Four 2s, 3s, 4s with any Ace,2,3,4 has a variance factor of 27.47 with a frequency of 1 in 5795 with perfect play.
A small increase in variance factor number represents an exponential increase in the possible outcomes of the game.
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ko king
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 670
- Joined: Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:13 pm
[QUOTE]. What many like yourself fail to understand is I fully expect to lose, I don't have a problem with that. Let me be perfectly clear, I fully expect to lose year after year. Positive expectation games are illegal in this area, I have no idea why but that is the law.
I also expect to lose year after year as well, but I am trying to keep that to the lowest amount possible. It is exactly what Phil stated, how much people are willing to lose to experience their own satisfaction of hitting jackpots. Most people are forced to play negative expectation games as it is illegal to have over 100% payouts in most jurisdictions, so you are not alone. Not many places has full pay Jacks or Better, I am not sure where you frequent; you've mentioned Tunica a few times on the forum which has it according to posts made by Vman. These big premium quads with kickers from TDB do not always occur on its average cycles, and that is the reasons the variance is so high.
I cannot withstand the chance of losing several thousands of dollars although there is the chance to win several thousands. I know billyjoe can with stand the pain of TDB, but not sure of anyone else that can. I probably play half the amount at 50k rounds annually. It is entirely possible to further reduce your expected loss by following the questions Mr. Dancer stated as it is not only applicable for those that only play the game for a living. Playing at a place that offers comps and promotions does soften the blow of losing, at least from what I've personally experienced.[/QUOTE]
I don't like losing thousands of dollars anymore than anyone, I used to accept the losses because of the rewards program offered at the casino. In all honesty my losses were never really bad when I weighed all the goodies I recieved, I've been all over the place and stayed in some of the nicest rooms anyone could ask for. My wife understood and accepted the losses because she always got to come along on all the trips, on the two cruises I won big both times, a dealt royal flush both trips. The level of variance is what I'm having a hard time understanding, for some reason the very small market casinos in this area offer some pretty decent pay tables but I get murdered there. The obvious answer is to not play at the smaller market casinos if I'm getting beat up so bad but I still would like to understand the reason, I play at other casinos and fare much better, it just doesn't make sense.
I also expect to lose year after year as well, but I am trying to keep that to the lowest amount possible. It is exactly what Phil stated, how much people are willing to lose to experience their own satisfaction of hitting jackpots. Most people are forced to play negative expectation games as it is illegal to have over 100% payouts in most jurisdictions, so you are not alone. Not many places has full pay Jacks or Better, I am not sure where you frequent; you've mentioned Tunica a few times on the forum which has it according to posts made by Vman. These big premium quads with kickers from TDB do not always occur on its average cycles, and that is the reasons the variance is so high.
I cannot withstand the chance of losing several thousands of dollars although there is the chance to win several thousands. I know billyjoe can with stand the pain of TDB, but not sure of anyone else that can. I probably play half the amount at 50k rounds annually. It is entirely possible to further reduce your expected loss by following the questions Mr. Dancer stated as it is not only applicable for those that only play the game for a living. Playing at a place that offers comps and promotions does soften the blow of losing, at least from what I've personally experienced.[/QUOTE]
I don't like losing thousands of dollars anymore than anyone, I used to accept the losses because of the rewards program offered at the casino. In all honesty my losses were never really bad when I weighed all the goodies I recieved, I've been all over the place and stayed in some of the nicest rooms anyone could ask for. My wife understood and accepted the losses because she always got to come along on all the trips, on the two cruises I won big both times, a dealt royal flush both trips. The level of variance is what I'm having a hard time understanding, for some reason the very small market casinos in this area offer some pretty decent pay tables but I get murdered there. The obvious answer is to not play at the smaller market casinos if I'm getting beat up so bad but I still would like to understand the reason, I play at other casinos and fare much better, it just doesn't make sense.
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1913
- Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm
It is still possible to lose thousands of dollars playing full pay Jacks or Better after 100k rounds for the dollar denomination. I am aware of this and I have budgeted my annual play to half of that. Every video poker game has a huge component of its variance in the Royal Flush and Jacks or Better is no exception in which is 15.8 of the game's 19.5 variance. For Jacks or Better the rest of the outcomes have small variances so that the results are more consistent year in and year out. For 100k $1 jacks or better rounds and with a RF cycle being 1 in 40390, no royal flush hits will be about $12-14k loss, 1 royal flush hits will be $8-10k loss, 2 royal flush hits will be $4-6k loss. And 3 or more royal flushes will be a good year for the player. It is important regardless to use the comps to mitigate those losses. TDB has much of its payouts in the quads, premium quads with kickers, and the royal flush. It will hurt more than if it does not come out often.
If you are playing at a Caesars Entertainment, chances are it will be a free gift, free show, or free slot/blackjack entry tournament offers. Most people unfortunately play during the weekends when usually no promotions or incentives are offered. It is important to get anything valuable for your play. As bad as it may sound, people playing the equivalent amount of coin in on different games in the casino could even lose more than that number.
If you are playing at a Caesars Entertainment, chances are it will be a free gift, free show, or free slot/blackjack entry tournament offers. Most people unfortunately play during the weekends when usually no promotions or incentives are offered. It is important to get anything valuable for your play. As bad as it may sound, people playing the equivalent amount of coin in on different games in the casino could even lose more than that number.
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spxChrome
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 819
- Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 9:21 pm
I will say you are right about positive games being illegal. 3 weeks ago a co-player finally had enough and called the gaming commission to complain. He explained to them that mathematically the return he was getting for the past 6 months on 10/6 DDB and 9/7 TDB was next to impossible. All they had to say was that those games were not allowed in the casino. Within 24 hours the chips were changed on a row of 7 machines that offered
10/6 DDB (100.7%)
9/7 TDB (99.58%)
8/5 Super Aces (99.94%)
600/20/10/8 Triple Deuces Wild (99.92%)
down to
9/6 DDB
9/6 TDB
7/5 Super Aces
Triple Deuces Wild was eliminated
And I know their is a variance in these games and I know that there are streaks but a 5 month cold streak were 5 of 6 handpays are dealt hands there is something else going on. I average 1 hand pay per trip cause I play around 6-8K hands per session. If I don't get a handpay on 1 trip I usually get 2 the next.
I have had 6 in the past 21 trips and as I have said 5 of those were dealt.
Gezz I may buy it if it was just me but there are 4 of us that all play about the same amount and we are ALL having the same results, it is just impossible to draw a premium hand.
Example: I quit counting my deal trip aces at over 220 without drawing the forth. My highest before that was 93.
10/6 DDB (100.7%)
9/7 TDB (99.58%)
8/5 Super Aces (99.94%)
600/20/10/8 Triple Deuces Wild (99.92%)
down to
9/6 DDB
9/6 TDB
7/5 Super Aces
Triple Deuces Wild was eliminated
And I know their is a variance in these games and I know that there are streaks but a 5 month cold streak were 5 of 6 handpays are dealt hands there is something else going on. I average 1 hand pay per trip cause I play around 6-8K hands per session. If I don't get a handpay on 1 trip I usually get 2 the next.
I have had 6 in the past 21 trips and as I have said 5 of those were dealt.
Gezz I may buy it if it was just me but there are 4 of us that all play about the same amount and we are ALL having the same results, it is just impossible to draw a premium hand.
Example: I quit counting my deal trip aces at over 220 without drawing the forth. My highest before that was 93.
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1913
- Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm
Example: I quit counting my deal trip aces at over 220 without drawing the forth. My highest before that was 93.
Normal odds for dealt trips completing into quads is 1 in 23.5
To miss on 220 consecutive opportunities will be is 1 in 14281 occurrences of it happening. So rare to be that unlucky.
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