GOODBYE BOB DANCER.....

[alpax]

Sorry to hear about your losses Carcounter, we all can have bad trips here and there, but if you went and played the way you did 10 or even 20 times and it all lost, then we'd be onto something. I do not know who will be willing to be the guinea pig for that.

Promise I will not be back to Caesars, or any other CET property in a long time.

I told myself that too 3 years ago and that applies to all CET properties across the nation, not just Vegas. Except mine was because how ripped off I felt at the time with regards to how tight they've made their slot machines.

[DaBurglar]

Ok, probably not the correct thread to post this, but here goes. To add some fuel to DaBurglars fire, I went to Caesars AC yesterday-against my better judgment, after cancelling golf due to the weather. I have not played there for about 5 years, since they removed the All Americans and the JOB progressive in the old Park Place Poker area. As I have said before, no reason to go to a boardwalk casino for me, unless they have superior paytables, which in general they don't. However Caesars has a bank of .25 Double Joker progressives with a royal rest at $2,000. Base game is 99.9% and usually over 100%. Not yesterday. Lost $500 very quickly, with no premium hands, unless you consider 2 SF's with a 125 coin payout. Incredible number of garbage, AKA "dud" as DB calls them hands. Well beyond anything I have seen in my 20 years of playing. Almost seems surreal. Kept thinking things will turn around any minute in a big way, but nope. Promise I will not be back to Caesars, or any other CET property in a long time.I amvery familiar with that bank of Caesars Double Joker poker progressives....back when it was 6 seperate individual games (i.e. BEFORE servers took over) that was one of the absolute best games to play in AC (or anywhere really)  based on the fact that the paytable was good and the progressive starts at 2000 for a 25 cent game.   Back when it was IGT machines, you could never get a seat at the games unless it was 3 am, but that has all changed, and now you are the latest victim of the fairly simple yet frustrating ordeal of the now infamous  "AC dud rate" which infects far too many machines to be simply randomness or variance at work.I'm sorry Bob is splitting for a month, and I respect the last post he made, although he still did not address this "DUD rate" which is really the whole problem.....all the strategies and methods used by people like Bob, or myself or even phil, are bunk when machines are NOT dealing statistically NORMAL distributions of hands.....70% (or worse!) of hands yielding NOTHING over a disproportionate amount of time is just horrible, and wrong.   (hell, even if the dud rate was "only" 60% sustained average over time instead of 55% would be a HUGE drain on players....)If BOB simply does not believe it is that bad, that's certainly his right, but  I am TELLING YOU as openly and simply as I can IT REALLY IS THAT BAD on many of the machines I have played over time.....now I realize,  if I play 10,000 hands and I pull a 70% DUD rate, that is still a small sample in the grand scheme, but I am NOT talking about "only" 10K worth of hands.....I am talking 100,000 or more hands on specific machines (or in the case of the CET properties which are now server, it applies to ALL machines.)   100K is NOT reasonable to see a ridiculously high non paying hand rate on the order that myself, and now others, frequently see.  (note:  I use "100K" as a more emphatic reference point, but it still is arbitrarily small in the grand scheme of things, but 100K represents about 4-6 months of play for ME at my former levels of play in AC, and I know I have had these dud rates for a long time now, far far in excess of several years and close to a million hands....as I stated before.....now if someone wants to insist that even for a million hands a zero rate of 65-70% does not prove anything, well then I say that any and all players would be nuts to play in AC even if the NEXT million hands returns back down to 55%...the hOLE you will be in will be insurmountable.)But alas, I am not interested in doing anymore "serious" playing or investigating of AC video poker......I am saving my video poker energy for Vegas, where I expect I will see far more "normal" statistical results.....doesnt mean I will win, but I should at least get a lot more play for what I spend.I totally agree with BOB when he states only 5% or less of players actually win doing what he does, because he is right, the casinos would not tolerate (in fact, they no doubt  are "on to it" even now, watching the tipping point closely to where the "FISH", the 95% of the losers, cease to lose enough to cover both the corporations profit expectations AND what the 5% winners reap.    But it is NO mystery, Bob's success is simply the mastery of information:  collecting it, organizing it and then properly drawing the right conclusions ..... it is no different than Analysts & managers at Hedge funds or Investment groups;  but not everyone can be a hedge fund manager (or even analyst), and it is NOT only because they suck at math or analyzing multiple factors.....it also has to do with simple DRIVE and desire.BOB is succesful because he WANTS to be ... he WANTS to do this, which extends to actually doing all the grunt/grind work (and what he does is a lot of that.)   Most people here think its just plopping x amount of dollars into VP machines during certain promotions or earning bonanzas at certain casinos...it is NOT.   Bob's most important work is done in his home (or room or van or wherever he sets up office) at 10 pm on nights when he is NOT anywhere near a casino (I'm projecting, I don't actually know where Bob works out of, but he knows the point I am making.)    As for me, I currently have no desire to spend my life doing THAT.....I just want to solve the issue of WHY so many AC VP machines deal such extended rounds and prolific amounts of total garbage.   Someone out there knows the truth......

[ko king]

[QUOTE=Carcounter]Ok, probably not the correct thread to post this, but here goes. To add some fuel to DaBurglars fire, I went to Caesars AC yesterday-against my better judgment, after cancelling golf due to the weather. I have not played there for about 5 years, since they removed the All Americans and the JOB progressive in the old Park Place Poker area. As I have said before, no reason to go to a boardwalk casino for me, unless they have superior paytables, which in general they don't. However Caesars has a bank of .25 Double Joker progressives with a royal rest at $2,000. Base game is 99.9% and usually over 100%. Not yesterday. Lost $500 very quickly, with no premium hands, unless you consider 2 SF's with a 125 coin payout. Incredible number of garbage, AKA "dud" as DB calls them hands. Well beyond anything I have seen in my 20 years of playing. Almost seems surreal. Kept thinking things will turn around any minute in a big way, but nope. Promise I will not be back to Caesars, or any other CET property in a long time.


I amvery familiar with that bank of Caesars Double Joker poker progressives....back when it was 6 seperate individual games (i.e. BEFORE servers took over) that was one of the absolute best games to play in AC (or anywhere really)  based on the fact that the paytable was good and the progressive starts at 2000 for a 25 cent game.   Back when it was IGT machines, you could never get a seat at the games unless it was 3 am, but that has all changed, and now you are the latest victim of the fairly simple yet frustrating ordeal of the now infamous  "AC dud rate" which infects far too many machines to be simply randomness or variance at work.

I'm sorry Bob is splitting for a month, and I respect the last post he made, although he still did not address this "DUD rate" which is really the whole problem.....all the strategies and methods used by people like Bob, or myself or even phil, are bunk when machines are NOT dealing statistically NORMAL distributions of hands.....70% (or worse!) of hands yielding NOTHING over a disproportionate amount of time is just horrible, and wrong.   (hell, even if the dud rate was "only" 60% sustained average over time instead of 55% would be a HUGE drain on players....)

If BOB simply does not believe it is that bad, that's certainly his right, but  I am TELLING YOU as openly and simply as I can IT REALLY IS THAT BAD on many of the machines I have played over time.....now I realize,  if I play 10,000 hands and I pull a 70% DUD rate, that is still a small sample in the grand scheme, but I am NOT talking about "only" 10K worth of hands.....I am talking 100,000 or more hands on specific machines (or in the case of the CET properties which are now server, it applies to ALL machines.)   100K is NOT reasonable to see a ridiculously high non paying hand rate on the order that myself, and now others, frequently see.  (note:  I use "100K" as a more emphatic reference point, but it still is arbitrarily small in the grand scheme of things, but 100K represents about 4-6 months of play for ME at my former levels of play in AC, and I know I have had these dud rates for a long time now, far far in excess of several years and close to a million hands....as I stated before.....now if someone wants to insist that even for a million hands a zero rate of 65-70% does not prove anything, well then I say that any and all players would be nuts to play in AC even if the NEXT million hands returns back down to 55%...the hOLE you will be in will be insurmountable.)

But alas, I am not interested in doing anymore "serious" playing or investigating of AC video poker......I am saving my video poker energy for Vegas, where I expect I will see far more "normal" statistical results.....doesnt mean I will win, but I should at least get a lot more play for what I spend.

I totally agree with BOB when he states only 5% or less of players actually win doing what he does, because he is right, the casinos would not tolerate (in fact, they no doubt  are "on to it" even now, watching the tipping point closely to where the "FISH", the 95% of the losers, cease to lose enough to cover both the corporations profit expectations AND what the 5% winners reap.   

But it is NO mystery, Bob's success is simply the mastery of information:  collecting it, organizing it and then properly drawing the right conclusions ..... it is no different than Analysts & managers at Hedge funds or Investment groups;  but not everyone can be a hedge fund manager (or even analyst), and it is NOT only because they suck at math or analyzing multiple factors.....it also has to do with simple DRIVE and desire.

BOB is succesful because he WANTS to be ... he WANTS to do this, which extends to actually doing all the grunt/grind work (and what he does is a lot of that.)   Most people here think its just plopping x amount of dollars into VP machines during certain promotions or earning bonanzas at certain casinos...it is NOT.   Bob's most important work is done in his home (or room or van or wherever he sets up office) at 10 pm on nights when he is NOT anywhere near a casino (I'm projecting, I don't actually know where Bob works out of, but he knows the point I am making.)   

As for me, I currently have no desire to spend my life doing THAT.....I just want to solve the issue of WHY so many AC VP machines deal such extended rounds and prolific amounts of total garbage.   Someone out there knows the truth......
[/QUOTE]

 
You see what happens when people actually sit down and take the time to play the same machines we are subjected to. I tried to have faith, I tried to listen, no, no it's all random and the exact same thing all over the place, hogwash.

[Carcounter]

I know my last session was insignificant statistically, but figured , I had had to share the experience. Just seemed like something was amiss.

[Carcounter]

Golf at my County course would have cost me $45. Damn weather. Have to have a sense of humor as an AC VP player.

[ko king]

Golf at my County course would have cost me $45. Damn weather. Have to have a sense of humor as an AC VP player.

 
Yeah I quit playing vp for 6 months a while back, concentrated on work and my golf game. I've got a course I enjoy playing because it's so hard and the good part is the cost is only $10 with cart for 18 holes.

[DaBurglar]

Over the past year, when I cut way back on VP and focused on playing real poker (both tournaments and cash games), I have seen a slight uptick in my bankroll and a very large downtick in my frustration, and I enjoy my TOTAL time in AC casinos more than I have in the past...my time in AC outside casinos has not changed, outside of not having a GF anymore....I still love the beach and the boardwalk, and the surrounding communities of south Jersey (I have been exploring all along the south jersey coast, as it extends westward back towards delaware and philly....there are some really nice quaint towns and places to visit and spend time!Playing live poker seriously (i.e.  to make a modest profit) is a grind....anyone can come in and start betting like a wildman and try to bluff (or bully) the first few pots you sit in on, and a few people do that and split with their winnings (but after that they are a marked man and will NOT repeat the tactic again if facing the same players)....but sitting for 4,5 or 6 hours (with only a bathroom break or two) is actually tough work while trying to play well and not get clobbered.   THAT takes discipline and stamina, and you MUST know what you are doing, otherwise your stack disappears quickly.My goal is to try and win about 25-30 bucks per hour playing a game like 1-2 dollar blind NL holdem, or if playing 2-5 dollar blinds I try to make 40-50 bucks an hour (AVERAGE.....I may go a couple hours winning nothing or down a bit, but so long as I hit a big pot later, it works out...but most of the time, I try to win a few small pots every hour....)The control I have playing live poker is a great relief compared to video poker....when I get to Vegas I plan on splitting my time 50-50 between video and live poker...right now in AC it is about 80-20 or even 90-10, live poker to video poker.

[wildman49]

Over the past year, when I cut way back on VP and focused on playing real poker (both tournaments and cash games), I have seen a slight uptick in my bankroll and a very large downtick in my frustration, and I enjoy my TOTAL time in AC casinos more than I have in the past..

It's great to hear  DB that your frustration level is coming in. It don't matter how one does it. For some of us its playing a lot more minimum bets then max bet. For you its live poker. Everyone needs to find a level in VP that makes it more fun and less frustrating. There is no time in life to let this game keep beating you up unless you let it.

[FAA]

Yes indeed.I find that I'm just not a four hour VP player by temperament. I'd like to get back the discipline to walk away after two hours. You know, when I'm always up or about even!