Video Poker is a Beatable Game

[onemoretry]

Let's just say that I play max coin quarter DW all day.  What's the best that can happen...one or more $250 quad deuces or a very rare royal for $1,000.  A wild royal only pays $31.25 on a good game.  CS gives you a decent shot at a $1,000 quad deuce and a $4,000 royal.  This happens frequently enough to turn the tide in your favor. 

Playing all day at max coin quarters may get you a "very rare royal", while playing a vastly less number of dollar hands gives you "a decent shot" at a royal?

Can you not see just a little inconsistency here?

[BobDancer]

I've played both ways and I've done much better with CS over the last three years than I ever did playing max coin quarters.  It really doesn't matter how you play as long as you feel like you got your money's worth. 





 This time FP cites his record of winning over the past three years. He is always ahead $3,000, no matter that he says he plays every week and his score must fluctuate. This sounds like he thinks his record is important. It sounds like $3,000 is his story and he's sticking to it.He also regularly states that the fact that he's ahead is a random fluke and is not important at all and shouldn't be used to justify his system.These responses --- both regularly made with slight variations --- are mutually inconsistent. They cannot both be true. we are left with the words of FP that are true:

Florida
Phil:   “Let's just say that I don't know
what I'm talking about and leave it at that.”

[BobDancer]

 Part of the price for that is a very disciplined and unwavering public stance that "Video Poker Is A Beatable Game."
The reason my public stance on this is disciplined and unwavering is that it is true. While I might have a number of "extra" reasons for taking that stance, the stance itself is absolutely true. There are a number of players who win most years. If 80% of the people who were ahead last year are also ahead this year, that's a pretty good indication that it's not random. there is "something" they are doing right. And that "something" is what makes video poker a beatable game.There are a number of players who basically never win. It's not random which group you're in. Skill matters, discipline matters, recognizing opportunities matters, refusing to play then the opportunity isn't there matters, intelligence matters, but the games are definitely beatable. A lot of the skills to do it are teachable. And that's part of what I do. But if a player is not smart enough or not disciplined enough or too stubborn to following the advice of someone who knows more than he does, I don't know how to make them successfulAs it happens, the players who have the brains and skill to do this know it's true. The players who don't have these things keep arguing that it's not true. If it bothers you that I include slot clubs, mailers, promotions, drawings, etc. in my definition of winning, then we'll have to agree to disagree. That money is a direct result of gambling at video poker and is the reason I play. If this money weren't there, with the current games, I wouldn't play. Don't assume that players who say "I live in Florida (or wherever) and there are no beatable games here" know what they are talking about. There are opportunities in Florida and elsewhere. Frequently there are better opportunities outside of Nevada than in Nevada. You would be wrong to assume that I never travel outside of Nevada to play. You would be wrong to assume that I've never played in Florida.You would probably also be wrong to think that the players who can't make it in Florida can be successful just by moving to Nevada. If they're not smart enough to make it back home, they are probably not smart enough to make it in Nevada. There are LOTS of players in Las Vegas competing to collect on the good games. A relatively small proportion of those wannabe gamblers are successful at it.A correct translation of the players that say there are no good games where they live would be "I live in Florida and I don't know how to find beatable games." That may well be a true statement. It's not trivial to find opportunities (It's a WHOLE lot more complicated than looking at pay schedules), and many of the best opportunities aren't written about until they are over --- if then. 

[FloridaPhil]

Oh crap, the "big type" ogre is back from vacation, 30 days sure went fast.   Why don't you put your glasses on so your posts don't look like they came from a sixth grader?   I tried to let this go, but you just want to keep it going.  OK, here we go for another boxing round.  The reason my numbers are so consistent is because I break even far more times than most players do. This is primarily because of the way CS works and because I set my cash out limit low at $50.   I often play CS dollars.  This cost less than playing max coin quarters, the comps are similar, I get much better odds and I frequently hit good hands after switching to max coins.  I believe I have nine times better chance of hitting a $1,000 max coin quad deuce playing this way vs. waiting forever for a max coin $1,000 quarter royal flush and it has proven to be true. Once in the last three years I hit a $4,000 royal and I kept it instead of feeding it back into the casino at max coins.  Numerous times I have hit a max coin $1,000 quad deuce, took a picture with my phone, posted it on my website and discussed it openly on this forum, which is far more actual proof than you have ever offered.  Three times this year I played CS on $5 machines $20 at a time and walked away with another $1,000 each time.  The last time this happened I hit a $625 wild royal on the very next hand.  All of these jackpots were posted and discussed openly on this forum on the day they happened.  Anyone can search my posts and verify these facts are true as I have stated them.  I have also hit numerous assorted natural royals, but I didn't bother to post most of them because anyone with hands can duplicate that feat.My total $5 machine investment this year is not more than $300 because I never play $5 machines unless I'm seriously ahead for the day.  I admit I had a great return on my investment, but not nearly as much as your lucky run in 2001 which I suppose is still funding your career.   By the way, If anyone is interested I have no problem telling them how to test CS on your own VPW software so they can see how it works.  Of course they'll have to pay you $50 first.Speaking of admitting things.  Why don't you admit you are working for the casinos and they don't want you to let players know the game can't be beat long term playing max coins without some kind of raffle win, accounting trick or casino appearance check.  While you're at it, also tell them you are making big bucks selling your fantasy life and you're afraid some no nothing in Florida is going to let the cat out of the bag.   Also, why is it whenever someone questions you or asks for verification of your claims, you make some vague statement about knowing lots of successful gamblers or you insult them and skirt the issue all together.  We're listening Mr. Dancer.  

[Tedlark]

DaBurglar two quick points for you in response to two of Bob Dancer's recent posts.

1 - Bob said I understand you more often than not; say, like 80%.

2 - Bob said DISCIPLINE is one key element to beating the game. How many times have you heard me say that I quit while ahead? Jest all you want about me and short sessions but if I'm up several hundred or even a thousand dollars after 1 hour of play: I'm calling it quits and walking.

[BobDancer]

Yesterday I was "juvenile." Today I'm an "ogre." FP repeatedly defends his CS here. So much for his resolutions!And his baseless accusations at the end of his last post. There are no casinos paying me to lie for them. I don't have a fantasy life, insofar as I can tell. And what I'm promoting is if you're smart enough, disciplined enough, and work hard enough, you can succeed.Near as I can tell, FP has none of these characteristics. No wonder he can't figure it out.

[BobDancer]

2 - Bob said DISCIPLINE is one key element to beating the game. How many times have you heard me say that I quit while ahead? Jest all you want about me and short sessions but if I'm up several hundred or even a thousand dollars after 1 hour of play: I'm calling it quits and walking. Bob also says that quitting philosophies have no affect on EV and that today's score isn't particularly important. How you've done at the end of the year --- or maybe at the end of five years --- is a lot more important than any short term score.If you're playing a bad game, you're going to end up losing overall --- even if on several days you intentionally quit when you're ahead. If it makes you feel better, go for it.Of course if it's a bad game, quitting when you are ahead is smart --- as is quitting when you're behind --- and both are inferior to avoiding the game altogether.

[Tedlark]

Bob I usually play (and enjoy) higher volatility games. TDB, DreamCard, occasional STP.

I agree with you that today's score isn't particularly important, reminds me of Kenny Rogers singing "You don't count your money when you're sittin at the table, they'll be time enough for the countin when the dealins done."

[FloridaPhil]

Bob, nobody really cares anyway.  We all listen to you, then play the way we want.   I play my way because it allows me to play longer at a higher denomination, that's all there is to it.  Flat betting max coins bores me, so I modify my play to make the game more exiting.  The fact that it works for me does not guarantee it will for anyone else.  Dancer strategy has a lot of excellent points, but it also doesn't work for every player either.As far as how you make your living or your motivations, I could care less.  I've read all your books and use your software every day and it has helped me greatly.  After all that expert input, I go my own way.   My advice is quit fighting imaginary enemies, it's not worth the time and effort.  All it gets you is ulcers and high blood pressure.  Believe me that's one thing I do know about. 

[FAA]

My total $5 machine investment this year is not more than $300
because I never play $5 machines unless I'm seriously ahead for the
day.  I admit I had a great return on my investment.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Wow! Sounds like a great way to play to me. Sixty cracks at serious money. Whatever happens, happens. You're going to leave ahead regardless. That's a great VP year.