The Blind Men and the Elephant

[ko king]

My wife and I just returned from a week long trip to the Reno/Tahoe area.   This trip reminded me of the old story of a group of blind men attempting to describe an elephant.Except for a few exceptions, our recent video poker experience has been limited to casinos with odds in the 95-98% range.  To protect ourselves from the inevitable losses, we devised all kinds of schemes in an attempt to survive on these long VP marathons.  What we experienced at the Peppermill was mind blowing and definitely changed our feelings about the possibility of a player winning long term at video poker.  I won't go into it here, but the Peppermill is video poker heaven.  Every machine has NSU Deuces (99.728%) in nickels and up.  Not only that, but these machines are much more lively than we have ever seen before.  The frequency of so called "dud hands" was much less and it seemed like you could play for hours on a single $20.  Now, this is how video poker should be!I see now how an exceptional player like Bob Dancer with a big bankroll and access to high roller comps and special promotions should have little trouble making a living at this game.  I apologize for my ignorance.  I have never seen a Video Poker elephant before last week and it's an awesome experience.  









Phil it's pretty much what I've been saying all along, not all vp is the same and it's not just reflected in the pay tables. No doubt the Peppermill was crowded and there was plenty of people playing, when the wife and I were there it reminded me of how it used to be in this area. I've seen and played good vp, it was all good here up until a few years back. Casino revenues in this area are way down for a reason, the play is terrible. The slots are dead and the vp isn't much better. There is one casino in this area where it's all good, the way it used to be, problem is the place is packed all the time. When I go to that casino I stand the very real chance of not being able to play because there are no open machines and the cigar smoke kills me. The difference in the quality of play is undeniable and simple to see. When things slowed down in this area the casinos struck back by cutting everything they could, this of course caused an even bigger exit of players and dollars coming in. Most of the casinos here have worked themselves into a corner, their reputations are shot, they can't get players back and still need to generate revenue via the few players such as myself dumb enough to even walk into their places. I've pledged to myself not to play these low to no traffic casinos in 2016, they have lost my trust and earned my disrespect.

[FAA]

Most of the casinos here have worked themselves into a corner, their
reputations are shot, they can't get players back and still need to
generate revenue via the few players such as myself dumb enough to even
walk into their places. I've pledged to myself not to play these low to
no traffic casinos in 2016, they have lost my trust and earned my
disrespect.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Very honest post. I have recently returned to a low to no traffic casino, but just to unwind in the empty lounges apres play at my usual spots. Besides the awful results, it's flat out boring to play in a moribund casino to begin with.

[ko king]

Most of the casinos here have worked themselves into a corner, their
reputations are shot, they can't get players back and still need to
generate revenue via the few players such as myself dumb enough to even
walk into their places. I've pledged to myself not to play these low to
no traffic casinos in 2016, they have lost my trust and earned my
disrespect.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Very honest post. I have recently returned to a low to no traffic casino, but just to unwind in the empty lounges apres play at my usual spots. Besides the awful results, it's flat out boring to play in a moribund casino to begin with.



Some will label it as honest stupidity, but they haven't played these machines. When any one of them can come over here and sit down and subject themselves of 100K of low quality vp and do any better I will eat my words. Fact is the casinos in this area can't afford to be a Peppermill, they chased/lost way too many players, they're fighting to just keep the doors open.

[FloridaPhil]

It's definitely a downward spiral... hire cost cutting managers, drop odds across the board, players go somewhere else, drop odds some more, bankruptcy soon follows.  Players don't need casinos with huge shopping malls and golf courses and they don't want them to go out of business.  All they want is fair games with a fair share for the house and something left for the players.  When you're running $1,000 or more through the machine an hour, you deserve more than a T-shirt or a hat.    I'm taking my business to casinos that want to earn my business and leave the rest to the lawyers.  Free flights, food and rooms aren't free if they cost you 3-4 times more than retail. 

[FAA]

$1,000 an hour is a high roller pace for me. It would take me three hours to rack up that coin in! I really take it slow and low! Casinos barely know I was on the premises.

[FloridaPhil]

$1,000 at $1.25 per hand is only 800 hands.  $1,000 at a quarter a hand is 4,000 hands.  If you do the math, a blind monkey can see that a math strategy of low denomination play coupled with a progressive betting system comes out money ahead on negative games.  Yikes almost forgot!   We are not supposed to talk about CS here.   Ultra cheap play is the antidote for seriously negative expectation games, but sadly it's not as much fun.

[alpax]

$1,000 an hour is a high roller pace for me. It would take me three hours to rack up that coin in! I really take it slow and low! Casinos barely know I was on the premises.

Not to be confused with losing at a rate of $1000 an hour. Phil is indeed correct that $1000 coin in an hour is not at a high roller pace at all, a faster quarter player playing 800 rounds an hour or a half dollar player playing at moderate speed (400 rounds an hour) will achieve this.

It is entirely possible for a player playing 800 hands of $1 9/6 DDB ($4000 coin in) can lose $1000 if they do not get any quad. Then again, this is just one hour sample size where anything goes.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]It is entirely possible for a player playing 800 hands of $1 9/6 DDB ($4000 coin in) can lose $1000 if they do not get any quad.[/quote]Easy to do.  A quarter player can easily lose $100 an hour on some games if you don't get a royal flush.  Add all this up and a royal won't help you much.  There is a point where no manner of winning will ever overcome the odds.  The only way to beat a game like that is to play ultra cheap with some max coin hands thrown in and hit a jackpot at max coins.  Now there's an idea... I wonder what to call it?  

[FAA]

Not to be confused with losing at a rate of $1000 an hour. Phil is
indeed correct that $1000 coin in an hour is not at a high roller pace
at all.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Yes, not confused. I'm just unusually cheap and molasses slow. Even losing a fifth of his proposed $100 won't help much with a quad on JOB. Break even would be swell. The only way to beat a game like that is to play ultra cheap with some
max coin hands thrown in and hit a jackpot at max coins.  Now there's an
idea... I wonder what to call it?--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I refer to it as CS: Common Sense. You hit a max coin quad and you're still ahead, albeit nothing to write home about.

[onemoretry]

The only way to beat a game like that is to play ultra cheap with some max coin hands thrown in and hit a jackpot at max coins.  Now there's an idea... I wonder what to call it?  

Wishful thinking?