Would Bob Dancer Play Powerball?

[FloridaPhil]

The current Powerball jackpot is now over $1.5 Billion.  I'm wondering if the EV is good enough the attract a professional gambler?   If so, would he buy one ticket or millions?  If the second answer is right, I hope I'm not behind him in the ticket line... 

[Webman]

I think I read that you could now purchase every possible combination for less than the prize winnings, including taking out taxes (though these vary by state) so it would be a sure thing. No better bet than that...I'd be curious to know how many tickets it's physically possible to purchase in the time required. I'm not sure I would want to walk into a gas station with that much cash... are there "high roller" lotto purchasing locations?

[New2vp]

The possibility of ties needs to be taken into account (and often is not) by those who suggest that a lottery is an advantage play. Additionally, there is a non trivial expense in time to ensure coverage of all 292 million plus possible combinations. Nevertheless, you cannot participate in the "dream" if you don't buy a ticket.

[Chicagoan]

The only way it would be profitable if you could buy all the combinations would be for there to be no ties. In Powerball, there are frequently one or more ties. But even so, it is physically impossible for someone to buy all those tickets, even from the same machine in the same store -- it would take years.

[FloridaPhil]

I sure would hate to go through all those tickets!  That would be some pile... 

[alpax]

Not speaking for Mr. Dancer but here are my two reasons that I feel that he will not be playing...

1. Despite the +EV play, Powerball probably has the highest variance of any legitimate gambling game available to the public. I do not think I've read about Mr. Dancer playing the high variance Triple Double Bonus game at full pay, only Ultimate X. Despite Mr. Dancer being a wealthy person, not many have the bankroll to play powerball advantageously.

2. Nevada is not one of the 44 states/jurisdictions that participate in the Powerball lottery. The closest lottery retailer for Vegas residents is 40 miles down Interstate 15 where the California/Nevada stateline is. On top of that, there are 500+ people in line waiting to buy a ticket all day. Even some people who are California residents who live over 100 miles away will come and buy tickets because they are superstitious that a place that sold multiple jackpots in the past will strike again.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]On top of that, there are 500+ people in line waiting to buy a ticket all day.[/quote]Wow,  I'll bet that gas station does some business!   

[alpax]

It is actually a store called the "Lotto Store" which only sells California State Lottery products. They do cash in on big lottery drawings. Every dollar spent they get 6 cents in commission.

The line from yesterday

[FAA]

Numeracy challenged suckers unite! At least they can while away the time swapping dreams. Lots of grist for the mill to be bad here.

[ko king]

I think I read that you could now purchase every possible combination for less than the prize winnings, including taking out taxes (though these vary by state) so it would be a sure thing. No better bet than that...I'd be curious to know how many tickets it's physically possible to purchase in the time required. I'm not sure I would want to walk into a gas station with that much cash... are there "high roller" lotto purchasing locations?




I'm pretty sure there are a total of around 292 million possible combinations which at $2 per ticket the cost would be about $584 million bucks. I just recently ask if it would be possible for a group or investment firm to purchase all possible combinations. Here's what I was told, tickets can be purchased online so no corner gas stations would be involved. Using the current drawing as an example though it would be an unwise investment, three winners are dividing the $1.6 billion pot.