Is Video Poker a Game of Skill or Luck

[onemoretry]

If I was hard core CS, I have no doubt that I would have finished in the black everywhere!

How can you possibly believe that? Its creator states clearly that it is NOT a strategy for winning, it is a strategy to minimize losing.

[Eduardo]

i might be wrong, but i believe the math folks find fault with this line of thinking. what i have read is they believe all play, no matter if you break it up into shorter intervals, is all one continous act. and that continous act, goes on, until one never plays again.

I don't know who consider "math folks" but I would probably be one of them in that I believe in the expected return of these games if played correctly over a large number of hands.

Nothing in that is inconsistent with what I said. In fact it is based on it.

You are ahead the second day (even though you lost) precisely because you won more the day before than you lost on the second day.

I don't know if your "math people" are the same as professionals, but I consider them different. I am not a professional, in that I don't play video poker for a living.

Because of that, individual sessions/trips do matter more to me than they would for a professional who plays enough that winning and losing days are irrelevant to their lifetime bankroll.

When you only play a few times a year (and travel to do so) there is a world of difference between a winning trip and a losing one. Because I don't keep all my gambling money in an envelope that grows or shrinks my entire life. Each trip I have a new bankroll and it will either grow or be gone, and that makes for a very different trip.

But that says nothing about the mathematics of the game. I want to do as well as I can with the bankroll I've brought so I make the correct holds accordingly.

[notes1]

as i originally stated, i agree wih a positive session is a win. not sure where your agitation is coming from, i actually agreed with you. might consider a chill pill. i was bringing up a subject that i had read elsewhere by those who seem to qualify themselves as having math degrees. they were not 'my' math folks. that does not mean i believe everything i read, i just thought it might make for a interesting discussion.  in the discussion i had read, one side believed they could influence their long term results, by quitting when they were ahead. the other side, representing themselves as math experts, argued that one's play was one continous session and breaking it into seperate events, made no difference.

[Eduardo]

I took a chili pill and now I have gas. I should have read your post more closely.

I don't know that we disagree on anything. Sorry if I came across as being uptight.

I just get a little uneasy when people talk about "math folks" on here. Not you specifically, but in general. I always read that as "people who actually know how numbers and statistics work" and then the arguments against them come across as a bit ignorant or superstitious.

I think it's better to distinguish between:
1) People who play for a living, only on machines/promotions with a positive EV
2) People who play on a regular basis but do not follow the above for their own reasons
3) People who play occasionally who still try for the best EV available to them
4) People who play occasionally who throw skill out the window and hope to get lucky

I myself fall into category 3 for the most part.

Much of the discussion lately falls under category 2, the debate being whether they are doing themselves a disservice by simply "losing more slowly."

While I personally don't love the idea of that, I assume they are getting some other benefit out of the game beyond their bankroll (entertainment, comps, a lifestyle) that they enjoy enough to make it worth the slow loss. And I don't see any reason to object to that as long as they are being honest with themselves and others about what the result is. Which seems to be the case to me and I don't get the great dispute.

The other dispute being whether case 1 above is real or fiction. I also see no reason to question the professional approach to video poker for those who are capable of it and have the machines available to play.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=onemoretry]How can you possibly believe that? Its creator states clearly that it
is NOT a strategy for winning, it is a strategy to minimize losing.[/quote]I think what FAA was talking about was walking out ahead or even on any one given day or a even a group of days.   Anyone can do this and cut their short term losses.  Eventually the negative odds will catch up to you and you will lose long term.  The not talked about part of CS is what happens when you get lucky and hit a big max coin jackpot on one of your run ups.  When you play single coin quarters most of the time and you hit a $1,000 royal or quad deuce, you are ahead for a very long time.  Do this enough times and you will have three positive years like I had.  Is this a strategy based on math?  Of course not.  Does it happen? Yes.  Will it happen to you?  Probably not.   Can you base a career on this strategy?  Hell no!   Is it fun trying?  Sure.

[notes1]

eduardo, no harm, no foul, no problem, thanks. 

[FAA]

I didn't like the end result of giving back the RF over the fifty ensuing weeks of 2015, but I had a lot of fun in the process. Thankfully, I never got into Mad Max mode, where I really would have felt the loss. I lost at Tropicana with CS dollars, the classic mistake of betting over your head. I'm doing a larger percentage of my quarter VP at max bet this year. You gotta be in it to win it. As long as the machines stay fairly responsive, I would be satisfied. So far so good.

[BobDancer]

[QUOTE=FloridaPhilI never once claimed CS was a way to win, I always said it was a way to play longer and lose less.   I also made it very clear that my CS winning streak was due to luck not any strategy.[/QUOTE]If this were true, I wouldn't have a problem with the CS system.Yes FP regularly said his streak was lucky --- but he mentioned his 3-year winning streak probably 50 times that I read --- and most of his posts I don't read.When you say "I won using this system" over and over and over and over and ... and over again, certain gullible people start to believe you.  The single coin betting on a negative pay schedule was never a problem for me. You lose less that way --- if you can handle the psychological pain of hitting a one-coin royal. I wrote about that more than 20 years ago. The part I object to was magically knowing the right time to increase your single quarter bet to five coin quarters --- and then to five coin dollars. Anybody who says he can reliably predict when to do that is touting voodoo video poker --- whether he sells his advice or gives it away for free.And saying over and over again "I won 3 years in a row!" That's the part of the message that many people here are getting misled by. That's the part that is dangerous to many players here.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Bob Dancer]The single coin betting on a negative pay schedule was
never a problem for me. You lose less that way --- if you can handle the
psychological pain of hitting a one-coin royal. I wrote about that more
than 20 years ago.[/quote]Thank you Bob Dancer.  You do not necessarily need to play max coins to enjoy video poker as long as you are prepared to deal with short coin royals. If the game is negative or you don't play perfect enough you will still lose long term. The math says you will lose less playing single coin because your overall wager is less.  If you like to play max coins... do it.   At the same time, be aware when playing overall negative games the bigger you bet the more you lose over time.[quote=Bob Dancer]The part I object to was magically knowing
the right time to increase your single quarter bet to five coin quarters
--- and then to five coin dollars. Anybody who says he can reliably
predict when to do that is touting voodoo video poker --- whether he
sells his advice or gives it away for free.[/quote]There is absolutely "NO" way anyone can predict when to switch denominations or to max coins.  My website was very clear on that. Switching to max coins after a 4 coin win is only a way to add excitement back into a boring single coin game and nothing else.  If you hit a max coin jackpot, it's pure luck.[quote=Bob Dancer]And saying over and
over again "I won 3 years in a row!" That's the part of the message that
many people here are getting misled by. That's the part that is
dangerous to many players here.[/quote]I agree.  I can see how someone who is looking for a way to beat the casino may misinterpret what I said. I also said my winning was due to luck, but some may be overlooking this fact.  Honestly, I don't see any difference in this misinterpretation and one a player may make using Bob Dancer's strategy on a negative game expecting to win like he does.  I can't image now many millions of dollars have been lost due to that misinterpretation.Many intelligent and well financed people play single coin video poker and that number is growing. As casinos reduce the odds, players find their losses growing and look for alternatives. Revenues shrink and some give up the game altogether. The answer is for casinos to offer playable games. Recreational players aren't demanding positive games, they want entertaining games with enough return to allow them to play for an extended period of time without constantly reaching for their wallets. Creating games that shakedown players doesn't do anything but drive them away.There is no need to imitate a professional and/or lose a fortune to enjoy this game.  All you have to do is put the game in it's right perspective. 

[olds442jetaway]

     For 2016, I am playing CS or CS/MC for a couple o reasons. Most importantly, I have fun with it. Next, I will save money compared to 2015, 2014,and most of the prior years, and finally I must admit it is to " punish" the casino for removing crediting spendable points from the 99% games. Evidently, they are not happy with 95% returns most players have on 99% games. That is a general statement, but the die hard players I have met with all have returns in the 94-96% range especially since 2011. Assuming that the RNGs are still just that, these returns are probably due to a combination of mistakes, crazy play for short periods at very high denominations in an attempt to play catch up, and playing other non 99% games in an attempt to hit one of the premium hands or jackpots on gimmick games. Finally, playing games that bleed you down really fast like TDB, and multi line games when nothing much is hitting on the deal line. Edited to add just a comment about multi-line games. While they are really popular and can be fun, they rarely give you 99% plus paytables. The variance is higher and though over time the returns for the same paytable will be the same as a single line game, you can easily run out of time and or money playing them all day. I think the casinos count on that too. For those that are lucky enough to hit on them early in the session, the temptation to give back most or all of it is always there and some of us succumb to reasoning that Oh well....it is their money that I am playing with.