Downgrade in Quick Quads machines at South Point

[olds442jetaway]

     If the best players come out ahead which I don't doubt at all on a 100% game, then there has to be something else to it. It may be as simple as playing a long term sine curve the right way, or something else we cannot explain. It could be luck. Whatever it is, it does work for some people. I tend to think that if one's long term results match the math at the end of a year, then the only way to do it would be to increase one's bet after a really bad long term cycle hoping things will turn around by the end of the year. Otherwise, how could you come out ahead year after year on a 100% paytable? I am just talking about the game here. Not factoring in comps or any other giveaways. If free play is involved, that is an entirely different matter. That could push the player edge over that 100% number.

[BobDancer]

     If the best players come out ahead which I don't doubt at all on a 100% game, then there has to be something else to it. It may be as simple as playing a long term sine curve the right way, or something else we cannot explain. It has nothing to do with sine curves or catching the
machine at the right time. It has absolutely nothing to do whether I'm
ahead today, this week, this month, or whatever.  I never know when I
sit down whether I'll be ahead or behind at the end of a session. The
best assumption is I'll be behind because I lose more often than I win.
My wins, however, are bigger than my losses so it turns out OK.It has to do with recognizing
the return on the machine, evaluating the promotions and slot club and
mailers in terms of numbers, adding these up, and only playing when they
total more than 100%.And when you do play, play very close to
100% perfection or you'll give away whatever opportunity that is there.
If you aren't practicing on a computer and playing with 99.9% accuracy
(at least!), you basically have no chance unless the overlay is much bigger than normal.These
opportunities exist all over the country. FP kindly told us of one at
the casino nearest him in Florida --- but he refused to play because he
didn't have the requisite psychological bankroll. Which is fine. His
choice. Not everybody can handle the normal swings at gambling.You
have to find these opportunities, and refuse to play when the
opportunities aren't there. If you come to a casino and the opportunity
you were expecting is no longer there and you can't find a positive
replacement, GO HOME. Learning to do that is the biggest key to winning. Again, it's not magical or rocket science. It's pretty simple math.If
you read the articles on bobdancer.com, you'll find dozens and dozens
of explanations about how various promotions are attacked. The specific
promotions are usually history by the time I write about them, but they
often come around again the next year or two --- in various permutations.You
absolutely do not have to attack the promotions like I do. My skills,
interests, bankroll, "sneakiness," whatever, may be different from
yours. But studying to the way successful players go about it will
likely give you ideas you can apply to your own situation.If
you join up on vpFREE, there are successful players who post there.
Make sure you catch the posts by Mickey Crimm, especially. The level of
information presented there is MUCH higher than what is presented on
this forum because the administrator there kicks players off who
regularly make ad honinem attacks on others. Here, that's tolerated so it gets pretty nasty sometimes.

[olds442jetaway]

     I could see where this could be done if the free play and other cash promotions add up to over one hundred percent with perfect play. Otherwise I don't see how it could be done strictly playing on a 100 percent machine with perfect play, but nothing extra unless one was constantly lucky. I will check out the other information in your post. I might even have a shot at staying around even at Mohegan Sun which for now always has 99.54 quarter job games and free play and free gas that add up to about .5 percent. At least job is the easiest game to not make mistakes on. One has to watch the sticky buttons, not play overly fast, and make sure you have the strategy down pat though. Like you said, one needs to practice even though you may think you are constantly playing correctly.

[BobDancer]

     I could see where this could be done if the free play and other cash promotions add up to over one hundred percent with perfect play. Otherwise I don't see how it could be done strictly playing on a 100 percent machine with perfect play, but nothing extra unless one was constantly lucky. I will check out the other information in your post. I might even have a shot at staying around even at Mohegan Sun which for now always has 99.54 quarter job games and free play and free gas that add up to about .5 percent. At least job is the easiest game to not make mistakes on. One has to watch the sticky buttons, not play overly fast, and make sure you have the strategy down pat though. Like you said, one needs to practice even though you may think you are constantly playing correctly. Olds, you appear to be trying to figure this out. Good for you.If that's your goal, a good place to start is your recent 9/6 JoB Strategy Question thread and absolutely disregard all the advice given (well, I don't suppose praying will hurt. But all the other advice --- including advice from yourself --- is deadly if you're serious about winning)Disregarding computer perfect suggestions should be taboo if you're really trying to win. If the computer says hold a flush kicker --- do it. If the computer says to hold two unsuited high cards rather than go for the royal --- do it. If you really think the royal is coming and so want to hold a suited AKQ rather than a pair of kings in this game, it's time for a break. Thinking like that is very expensive. Playing short coin (with or without any sort of Martingale) is also a killer.Using the logic of "I connected on this technically inferior play in the past so it makes sense to deviate from it in the future" is hogwash.Now if your goal is to have fun and excitement and you don't get too hung up on your results, fine, do what you want. But if you're seriously trying to win, stick with computer perfect strategy every time.

[olds442jetaway]

Thanks for the reply and advice Bob. One thing I would never do on job is toss a paying pair just to keep suited 3 high cards to a Royal. I know that penalty is severe long term. I am mostly a recreational player, but as soon as I have my first failure and I'm sure it will come on the CS/MC clone play, I am going to give your advice a good try for this year. In the meantime, I will be playing no less that 5 quarters on 99.54 job games only. Hopefully the free play and other benefits will hold. If I increase my bets above 5, it shouldn't matter long term anyway as long as I am following the perfect strategy rules, playing the 99.54 job game, and still receiving my free play.

[BobDancer]

  I am mostly a recreational player, but as soon as I have my first failure and I'm sure it will come on the CS/MC clone play, I am going to give your advice a good try for this year. In the meantime, I will be playing no less that 5 quarters on 99.54 job games only.  .Keep in mind that most Martingale variations leave you frequently a small winner --- and occasionally a HUGE loser. If you're unlucky at small stakes you keep increasing your stakes until eventually the big jackpots come --- if they do. It it gets to $5 or $25 machines you need to play to "catch up," it can easily happen that you totally run out of bankroll without hitting a big hand.Despite FP's personal testimony about what happened to him, it is NOT easier to hit big hands at higher stakes than it is at smaller stakes. Just because you've lost a lot of hands in a row doesn't mean you're any closer to a jackpot in the future.It is not a smart plan to wait until you go through a really big loss before considering better strategies. However much you're building up in these smalls wins can easily and instantly be totally wiped out.It's okay --- actually advisable --- to desert this CS/MC strategy when you're still ahead. If you're smart enough, you know how the story will end if you stay on it. And it won't be pretty. You just don't know when the dumpster fire will happen.

[FloridaPhil]

Bob's strategy is a long term winning strategy based on solid math.  He has stated many times that most players will or can not duplicate his results.  I can see that.   Many players do not have the mental intellect it takes, but some do.  In addition to intelligence, you also need the skill and physical ability to play 99% perfect for days, months or even years at a time.  I believe I am "smart" enough, but I am positive I do not currently have the skill, dedication and/or physical ability to play perfect that long.You also must have access to a comp system that will turn the game positive. This is almost always a "high limit" situation which demands a player risk a lot of money waiting for big jackpots.  In addition to intellect, skill, bankroll and comps you must have unwavering faith in the strategy itself.  I am pretty sure I could find a positive game in Florida, but I am also
sure I would run out of nerve before I ran out of money.As I see it, in order to make this strategy work to it's full potential you need to turn yourself into a computer.  This is not a personal shot at anyone, I think it's an accurate statement.  Very few people are going to have the mental and physical attributes required and be willing to make the personal sacrifices necessary to pull this off.Bob strategy is the only viable way I can see that you can win long term playing video poker.  For the majority, we pay to play and as long as the experience is worth the cost we continue to do so.  Using Bob's strategy to reduce your cost or gain valuable comps has value.  After all, what's wrong with free vacations, food, golf or show tickets?CS, MC, single coin play or whatever you call it are methods recreational players have come up with to limit losses when playing seriously negative games, extend their play and/or make the game more personally enjoyable or exciting.  They are not long term "winning" strategies, but I believe they have a useful purpose in a totally recreational context. Winning can have many definitions.

[olds442jetaway]

Bob is correct of course that in the long run, any Martingale system will burn you up in one shot. That is why I combine mine with CS sometimes or set a limit at 400 bucks. When that bubble bursts, I just use it to put out the fire and wait until next time. I do enjoy the small wins. In a weird sort of way, it makes you feel good to beat the casino even it is for pennies. Speaking of pennies, playing those for a diversion is something I used to do too. Haven't tried it in a couple of years. MC works well on those too as long as you are happy with " pennies ". They have cycles worse than TDB that can make a twenty disappear in seconds. I think most of them return 85-90% too which is too greedy for me unless one is just playing for fun.

[FloridaPhil]

Bob Dancer's strategy doesn't work for me because I am not willing or able to play perfectly for extended periods of time and  I am not comfortable risking buckets of my money in a casino. Frankly, the way he plays video poker sounds more like a job than recreation.  I've already had a career that provided me with a nice life in retirement and I don't need another one this late in life.  That said, players can gain useful knowledge from his methodologies.  He recently got me looking harder at my online casino account where I discovered free play offers that I didn't know existed.In all honesty, I enjoy playing CS more than I like flat betting max coins.  I don't think it's any worse than playing regular slots and some days it pays pretty well.   Short term, I think it's easier to break even with CS.  If your goal is to make money playing video poker, I would follow what Bob teaches.  Before you do, you probably should do a brain, wallet and gut check to make sure you have what it takes to succeed.  My bet is you don't...

[Chicagoan]

The ironic thing about the South Point downgrade is that, based on what Dancer wrote, the decision was made because of one day's bad results (bad for casino; good for players.) I have always heard that casinos judge their machines with the same sort of long term strategy that Dancer uses. In other words, so what if we have a bad day --- it is the long term (annual, quarterly, whatever) results that count. That's not too much different than what most major corporations base their decisions on ---- at least looking at net results over time, rather than one 24-hour period. I just wonder if the South Point owner was having a bad day or, worse, if the casino is having cash flow problems and the one bad day's payouts on those particular machines hurt more than it should have?