Flat Betting vs Mild Martingale (clone)

[olds442jetaway]

     This is the method I have been using so far most of the time for 2016. It has its rewards, but also a greater financial risk than flat betting. Most recently, I have been using it with Airport Deuces. Detail is below on the results of yesterday's session. You can only use this if your vp machine allows you to bet more than 5 units and preferably up to 25 units or more. If you do not follow nearly perfect strategy, the risk of ruin is higher.

1. Risk...bust your bankroll faster than flat betting with Martingale Clone. In my case, the bankroll is 400-. All bets would start at bet 5 in the beginning of a session.

2. Reward...If you haven't busted, you will most likely do much better at the end of the session. For 4,000 hands yesterday, I would have lost 85- flat betting. I netted 163- with the Martingale clone. My highest bet was 12 quarters. Lowest bet was 5.

3. I will spare most of the details for now unless someone is really interested. Important.... it does not involve doubling your bet as most Martingale methods call for. Bets are reduced after a win or if not reduced, you remain at that level a longer time period before the next increase after a few more net losing hands. Pushes are not counted for anything other than being a push.

4. Other games tried. 9/6 JOB. So far has worked. However, I enjoy Deuces Wild much more. My bets seem to get higher on job than deuces if the Royals, Quads, and Full Houses are not coming in . Also I have come very close to busting the bank using this on JOB. Not so on Airport Deuces so far. Either one could easily break the bank though on a very bad off cycle.

5. Recommendations...NONE...this is just the way I play. I just like to win even it is a small amount for the day. One day and probably soon, the casino will get all of my 400- budget.

[alpax]

I only wish I had access to vp machines which allow you to make variable bets. I'd have to go to Vegas (the Mirage MGM) for it.

On Deuces Wild when I explored the Phil strategy, what kept me afloat bankroll wise was the 4 for 1 payouts that occur often about 1 in 10 hands, when I increased the bet and hit those, it gave me some life, getting a wild royal gave me a new lease on the short $20 bill life. I would suggest increasing the bet amount if you do not get a 4 for 1 in 10 hands?

Working some kind of counter, every 10 hands you do not get 4 for 1 payout you increase 2 credits on your bet, everytime you hit 4 for 1 payout, you decrease 1 credit on the bet (with the minimum being 5)?

The only way I can do any martingale is to increase from 25cents to 50 cents to $1 to $2. I do not have the variable coin flexibility.

[FAA]

I sympathize, Alpax. I play JOB Progressive. It is strictly a one to five quarter structure. I just wish that I was stricter about avoiding 2-4 coin betting! A $250 RF would be a horrible consolation.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=olds442jetaway] I just like to win even it is a small amount for the day.[/quote]I think this the main difference between a professional and recreational mindset when it comes to video poker.  Professionals only play when they have a mathematical advantage, are confident in their skills and don't have a problem navigating big losses as they consider it part of the game.  Recreational players like me are there for entertainment and consider each day's cost to be like a theme park ticket only some days it's free and some days it costs a lot.   Recreational players also choose games and strategies like a kid chooses which ride to go on, they want the most excitement for their buck.  Who's right and who's wrong?  No one, because their motives are completely different.

[FAA]

Please reiterate that 2-4 coin betting is a long term risk. That short pay RF would surely sting. I had one last year, but with one coin wagered I could at least console myself that a measly quarter wasn't the tipping point.

[olds442jetaway]

Back from another overnight with the Mrs. At least we got to stay this time without having to run home for an emergency. The very mild Martingale Clone worked very well again. This time I tried it on Double Down Stud Deuces Wild. This machine also allows the player to bet up to 25 units. What helped was the machine had a lot of back and forth hits and was not ice cold. On this type of machine, I start at bet 1 because the Royal penalty is so low percentage wise for betting less that 5. If I remember, it is around a quarter of a percent. A real Royal dealt only comes around long term once in nearly 700k hands. I probably won't play this with Martingale Clone too often because of the variance some of the time that can wipe you out quickly.
     Had I been flat betting last night just a quarter at a time, I would have lost 7.50. With the clone, I had to up my bets to 8 units. That means I had net losses at bet 1,2,3....all the way up to 8. The higher the bet, the longer you have to stat at the higher level until you hit or continue to move up. The bottom line is up 300-. I hit a wild royal at bet 8. At least now, if the casino wipes out my 400 bankroll on one of my next visits soon, my last 2 sessions would cover the loss. I wish more players in other parts of the country had the ability to vary their bets more. I didn't realize many casinos don't offer the option to bet more than 5. I know long term, it doesn't mean upping your bets on losing streaks will mean you will hit more good hands, but the advantage until they bust your budget is you only need a few of them. I think I was out about a hundred then the wild royal hit for 1600 quarters after doubling my bet 8 after seeing the first 4 cards. Three of them were Deuces. A deuces quad hit at that level would have been something. I was thrilled nevertheless.

[FAA]

Martingdale saved me today. -$52 on 8/5 dollar JOB in the High Roller room. Rich people apparently do not care about losing. I was down to my last $8. I bet $3 and was generously dealt four sixes for $75. By then, the low roller disheveled grinders at the 9/6 quarter Progressive had somewhat thinned and I could claim my rightful place in the universe.

[olds442jetaway]

Good job FAA. Imagine having a 2 cent single line machine that lets you vary your bet all the way up to bet 100 on a single line game. Mohegan Sun used to have a bank of those. Even with a 96% paytable, we used to kill those machines. They also had one eyed jacks which was a fun game. I was part of the middle of the night crowd back then. Otherwise, you could hardly get these machines. They are long gone now. When Mohegan Sun first opened about twenty years ago, the quarter vp machines allowed bets all the way up to 80 quarters on a single line game. The Martingale players killed those machines too and they yanked them out. Got my fingers crossed they leave the bet up to 25 alone.

[olds442jetaway]

     Martingale Clone marathon last night and early AM today. In danger once of losing my 400- bankroll, but most of the time the betting schedule kept me alive and ahead a little. The busted point happens while betting eighteen quarters and not hitting anything for ten hands or so. As it turns out playing only Airport Deuces for the entire session, I had to go to bet 18 one time and they almost got me. Wish I had a pic. Held 2 deuces and drew the other 2 which was good for 3600 quarters. The rest of the session I took it easy, visited some staff, caught an early breakfast, nap, and headed home financially intact.

     Here is one of the clone betting schedules I use on airport deuces. I don't expect anyone to buy into it, but at least it will give you an idea on how I am playing for 2016.

    Credit balance       bet amount in quarters

     1550-1600           5
     1490-1550           6
     1420-1490           7
     1340-1420           8
     1250-1340           9
     1150-1250           10
     1040-1150           11
     920- 1040           12
     790- 920            13
     650- 790            14
     500- 650            15
     340- 500            16
     170- 340            17
     0-   170            18

     I forgot...anytime your credit balance is more than the original 1600, just flat bet 5 and hope for the Royal, deuces quads, or cash out if you wish and go home a winner.

[FAA]

anytime your credit balance is more than the original 1600, just flat
bet 5 and hope for the Royal, deuces quads, or cash out if you wish and
go home a winner.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Absolutely! Sounds good to me. Thanks for the detailed granular system. I'm sure a little tweaking can adapt it for me.