VP Machine VS. "The Novice Player"

[rolanddude]

Just some pondering thoughts...

What if a particular machine was played with "very" imperfect play for a long time (few hours, days, weeks etc)??

Would the machine "give" winning hands on the deal or draw (5 card) just so it would remain within regulatory guidelines?

So much has been posted here throughout the years regarding the machines "Expected Return" and how often the machines are supposedly monitored to make sure they are actually performing within certain guidelines. In my experience of watching players at the machines... A lot of folks simply do not know how to correctly play the games. (to put it mildly)

Since so many people play incorrectly, How can the casino accurately tell if a machine is producing within the legal guidelines???

[FloridaPhil]

In regulated states the games are required to be tested to make sure the RNG is random and that the game complies with the laws of that State.   I don't believe anyone on this website has details of these tests, but I do believe they are accurate and the games are fair.   These tests are independent of the choices players make when playing the game. In fact, the casinos count on the fact that most players don't play anywhere near computer perfect to make a profit.  Playing computer perfect is not a guarantee you will obtain the expected return, but it is a lot better than what most players obtain by guessing or using hunches to make playing decisions.Occasionally for one reason or another, a knowledgeable player will make the decision to play contrary to perfect strategy.  For example, playing single coin so that his/her money lasts longer or going for a long shot royal instead of taking a tiny profit.   Personally, I don't see anything wrong with these decisions as long as the player is aware of the ramifications.  I think novice players should stick to perfect strategy until they have enough experience to make decisions based on their own personal goals. Others may have different opinions.

[olds442jetaway]

     This my gut feeling here and nothing else. The machines are set up to return a set amount over time with perfect play. If one does not follow those rules it is on your own dime and not the casino's fault one didn't play correctly. You are entirely correct in that many players have no idea what they are doing and or don't care. They want to play their own way. I can't believe the machine would just all of a sudden make up for someone else's bad play. If that were the case, one could play all day with one coin and never hold any cards, then start playing the correct way with max bet and you would hit all kinds of jackpots. One other interesting item most folks don't know about. At least in Ct. and probably many other places too, vp player return percentages are lumped in with slots and in fact are consedered slots themselves. Though vp returns based on paytables in Ct average 95-99.5 percent, the average slot return which included vp is only 91 percent and has been for years. They don't separate out vp returns for the public and probably the state at all. In fact, I just got a W-2G today on video poker and it clearly states under the type of wager section "SLOTS"

[Vman96]

Just some pondering thoughts...

What if a particular machine was played with "very" imperfect play for a long time (few hours, days, weeks etc)??

Would the machine "give" winning hands on the deal or draw (5 card) just so it would remain within regulatory guidelines?

So much has been posted here throughout the years regarding the machines "Expected Return" and how often the machines are supposedly monitored to make sure they are actually performing within certain guidelines. In my experience of watching players at the machines... A lot of folks simply do not know how to correctly play the games. (to put it mildly)

Since so many people play incorrectly, How can the casino accurately tell if a machine is producing within the legal guidelines???

What you describe is against almost all regulatory guidelines. In most juristdictions, the minimum return guidelines for video poker is always based on the assumption optimal play is used. So the actual return of a VP machine is almost always lower than expected return if you have a big enough sample due to strategy errors. I decided to intentionally lose 50 hands of VP at a penny each in Tunica once for the hell of it. I succeeded, the machine didn't care if I held 5 garbage cards. Tossing away dealt trips for the cause sorta sucked though.    

But if somehow players play badly enough for the machine to return less than the state minimum payback, that's not the casino's fault, and they aren't breaking the law. But you would be surprised how badly you would need to play to get below 85% expected return after errors on a full pay machine. I probably can count the players I've seen that have cost themselves more than 5% return via errors on one hand.

[rolanddude]

But if somehow players play badly enough for the machine to return less than the state minimum payback, that's not the casino's fault, and they aren't breaking the law.

As we all know, almost ALL VP players in the casino are clueless when it comes to perfect or near perfect play. I've witnessed folks, many times, get dealt sucker hands (ie. 10h, 4h, 7h, 10c, 9h) and they'll hold the pair of 10s. I see players do things like this (and worse) over and over EVERY TIME I go to a casino!!

My question still remains valid... How does a casino KNOW that a machine is within it's guidelines. I think it would be VERY HARD to definitively argue to the authorities that a bunch of "really bad players" are causing the machine to be below the guidelines. It would be hard to convince me that a bank of machines does not "GIFT" winning hands/combos when it approaches certain minimums and conversely "TIGHTEN" when it approaches being non-profitable for the casino. It wouldn't take a whole lot of "programming" to make the machines behave like this. It ensures to a casino and the casino's regulators that not much needs to be spent or done to maintain their legality.

Such a program would save both sides "huge money" on labor, litigation, and red tape!! I think that in our current "digital age" the machines' "network/brain" is constantly at work to ensure such outcomes.

We, as players, are just hoping to be "short-term lucky" so that our session ends with a profit!!       

[FAA]

The four to a flush players who opt for the pair always ding themselves and are never the wiser! I can't wait for that thirty coin payoff when I see this, like one of Pavlov's dogs. It's so much fun. You double check the hold and pray. And I love getting the dealt quads after about ninety minutes of pure frustration and misery. It's all too easy even among the most naive of us to conclude that the damn machine was approaching its Misery Minimum. Therefore, a gift premium hand is in order. Good food for thought, Roland.

[ko king]

Just some pondering thoughts...

What if a particular machine was played with "very" imperfect play for a long time (few hours, days, weeks etc)??

Would the machine "give" winning hands on the deal or draw (5 card) just so it would remain within regulatory guidelines?

So much has been posted here throughout the years regarding the machines "Expected Return" and how often the machines are supposedly monitored to make sure they are actually performing within certain guidelines. In my experience of watching players at the machines... A lot of folks simply do not know how to correctly play the games. (to put it mildly)

Since so many people play incorrectly, How can the casino accurately tell if a machine is producing within the legal guidelines???

Here's the way it was explained to me a few years back. The machines operate within a "curve" between a minimal of 84% to a maximum of 99.99% and they are considered within the regulations. I thought that "curve" only applied to slot machines but I was plainly told for a second time that that rule/curve includes video poker games. I was even allowed to look inside a video poker machine and they pointed out the RNG which was taped and sealed by the state regulators. At the same time I was told there was a total of 13 different approved RNG programs. Now with all that said I have been told a lot of stuff over the years that turned out to be false. In my mind that 84%-99.99% "curve" leaves a lot of wiggle room.

[FAA]

Interesting post! As the pros tell us, it's gotta be the pay table we all see on the screen. I still cannot rationalize the disparity. In AC, I do think that Borgata is in the 90%+ VP neighborhood. Hell, they rake it in hand over fist and can afford largess. Better than average luck there. The Resorts and Tropicana results have been so bad I shall not return to gamble. Pulling teeth to break even at Resorts and I considered myself highly fortunate. 

[DAAnMAAn]

I think it's a mistake to base an answer on results, since vp is such a volatile game. With the randomness of the number generator, the best we can hope for to determine theoretical return is optimum play over many hands to come up with an expectation. But it's all theory. In the short term, one could get their clock cleaned in a superior table but make a killing on a poorer one. In my understanding, "ER/expected return" is the best we can do to determine the return of a game... In theory.

[ukaserex]

I think the answer is, and should be different, depending on where you play.

In Mississippi, my understanding is - there is a gaming commission. But - guess who runs it? Not people independent of the casinos - but people employed by the casinos. So, I'm a little ...unclear as to whether the fox is guarding the hen-house, so to speak. Mind you - that's something a slot tech told me when I asked him how it was possible that the pay table allowed the casino to control how much the machine paid out over time. If it's truly random, the casino would only have the RNG to blame if people win more than they lose. Yet - I've seen them take machines out after multiple Royal Flushes within short intervals. Never saw those machines again, either!

I believe - in Mississippi, at least - there are internal cycles that determine feast or famine for the player. I'm pretty much a 98% perfect player at JoB - and I can promise you that if I don't hit a quad within 500 hands - I am not at 98% - but probably down several hundred dollars.

In fact - if my rooms and meals aren't worth at least 500 bucks to me - I'm not going! Because it's so hard to consistently win. I can come out ahead if I factor in comps - but leaving with more cash than I arrived with requires luck - and stamina and a very large bankroll.