Bob Dancer LasVegasAdvisor 6-14-2016 Article

[notes1]

if you are so confident you can beat the machines, the odds are in your favor, you can make money, even make a living playing VP, why do your posts reflect bet denominations that are so small?

[billryan]

Reading is FUNdamental.

[notes1]

so, you try to convince others that winning is likely and yet, you are not so convinced yourself, to bet an amount that reflects that confidence.

I will be sure to follow your advice.

[Vman96]

if you are so confident you can beat the machines, the odds are in your favor, you can make money, even make a living playing VP, why do your posts reflect bet denominations that are so small?

Ouch...burn!!!!   The real "pros" from what I read (I'm currently too poor to actually try :() do tend to play more negative machines and borderline abuse the comp/promotion system at higher denomination levels than games like multiline nickels. It's mostly about total EV per unit of time. The bigger payoffs via comps/promos often need bigger bankrolls/denominations.

Personally I try to suggest better opportunities like Bob Dancer does, but also try to belittle people who don't follow my advice since...

1) It makes people not like you.

2) If you lead all the horses to water and force them drink the water, then you will eventually run out of water. So if they don't want to drink, you probably should let them not drink.

[billryan]

so, you try to convince others that winning is likely and yet, you are not so convinced yourself, to bet an amount that reflects that confidence.

I will be sure to follow your advice.As I have said dozens of times, I'm just learning the game. I don't even play it recreationally. That doesn't mean I cant read charts though. Playing a 99% game is simply better than playing a 97% game. If one can't afford to play the 99 percent game at the quarter level with full coins, one is much better off playing full coins at the nickle level than a single coin at the quarter level. That's not advice. That's math.I've never said I was a pro, never said I have the game down pat. What I do have down pat is the math, and am getting a handle on the various coin in requirements and bonuses one needs to exploit. Got $50 in future free play today taking advantage of a July 4th promo. Tomorrow, I have an all most risk free Buffet dinner lined up.I now get two $15 meals comped per week at E.I. All these are from playing at low levels.When I have two games down pat- Deuces and JOB,  I'll move up to the $1 level, and possibly to the $5 level. Playing those levels now would be foolish and undisciplined. Two words that don't describe me.I don't really care if people drink or don't. I do care if people give bad information. Its almost like they don't want anyone to succeed because they can't, for whatever reason. Its the same on my blackjack forum. People play multi-deck 6-5 shoes and then ***** that its impossible to win.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]That doesn't mean I cant read charts though.[/quote]Bill, I assume you live in Vegas and have access to 100% games.  If so, good for you and I wish you luck.  Most of us do not and we must live with a much different chart.  Here are the facts.Let's take the most popular VP game in the southeast  8/5 DDB.  The odds on this game are 96.79% at max coins and 95.55% at single coin.  If you play this game 100% perfectly at 500 hands an hour, you will lose an average of 3.21% an hour at max coins and 4.45% at single coin.  This looks like max coins is a better deal.  The difference is you are gaining 1.24% by playing max coins but you are wagering five times as much to gain it.   If you play dollars you will are wagering $2,500 dollars an hour at max coins and losing an average of $80.25 an hour.  If you play single coin you are wagering $500 an hour and losing an average of $22.25 an hour.   This makes single coin a better game by $58 an hour.  If you do this for 40 hours, you will lose $2,000 a week more playing max coins.  You will need to earn some real comps to overcome that magnitude of a loss. I'm pretty sure my math is right, but please check it.   My wife and I just booked a week long trip to Red Rock Resort in Las Vegas this August.  For the first time in our lives we are going to attempt to play full pay games.  Will be do any better playing 100% games?  Who knows?  We have already received a couple of private messages from players telling us they never win there.  This doesn't deter us in the slightest as there is never any guarantee that math will have any effect on our results.  What matters is what happens on the machines that are in front of us when we play.  Using math to predict the actual outcome of a video poker game is a myth.  Math calculates your odds into infinity.   I don't know about you, but I don't plan to be on this earth that long.  Math can be useful, just don't get too hung up on the numbers alone.  A video poker machine does not read math books.  It does whatever it wants when it wants and no one can do anything to change that fact.

[ko king]

[QUOTE=ko king] [QUOTE=billryan] If playing at full coin has a 99% payback, and playing single coin has a 97% payback, in the long run,which will give better results? Short term results are meaningless, in the long run.
That's the magic of math. You can twist it, you can bend it, you can abuse it, but ultimately, there is only correct answer.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. If you play 100,000 hands at the $1 denomination always playing max coin and you hit the 99% payback you still lose $5K. If you play 100,000 hands at the $1 denomination and play single coin and hit the 97% payback you lose $3K. Which option would you choose?[/QUOTE]

I attempted 2 consecutive years of playing the very best games available in this area, 99.58%. I played as close to perfect as anyone, took advantage of all cash back and free play and would have loved to have come near the advertised 99.58% return. The problem was that I didn't finish anywhere near the expected for either year, first year 95.2% return, 2nd year return was 95.6%. Both of those years resulted in me playing just over $600K coin in for each year playing $1 denomination always at max coin. You do the math and it's easy to see those losses were nothing to brag about and it could happen to you also, can you handle that type of loss. The advertised payback is based on the lifespan of the machine, I chose not to pursue or chase that magical return any longer.

You aren't factoring cash back, free play or any other club benefits. The rewards on $500k will dwarf those on 100k.[/QUOTE]

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=billryan]You aren't factoring cash back, free play or any other club benefits. The rewards on $500k will dwarf those on 100k.[/quote]You are right about that.  In the southeast comps are limited to free rooms and credits used in the casino restaurants and shops.  The shops only carry T-shirts and sunglasses.  You can't use earned credits in the food court, only the high priced eateries.  Still, comps have value.  One of the reasons we like to play at the Hollywood Hard Rock is their comps have value to us.  We can get two consecutive night free rooms almost anytime we want and we never pay for food.  Does this overcome our losses?   Not always, but it sure is welcome.  I am not saying video poker is a complete loser.  On the contrary I think it's a bargain.  What I'm saying is that math can tell you the right games to play, but it won't effect your actual results.   Luck is the 500 pound gorilla in the room.  Without enough of it at the right time, you are a loser no matter how skillful or disciplined you are.

[notes1]

Vman, 'ouch...burn'. I would suggest you follow all the posts and note I was responding to someone who implied that a 1-2 time a month, quarter VP player should seek GA help, while he is so addicted, he moved to vegas. if he wants to get nasty, he picked on the wrong guy.

getting back to the comment I made, it does seem to me that among the most adamant of the posters that believe the machines can be beat, other than dancer, most are small time players. I have no problem with those who bet small, I am among them, but if one is so convinced, put their money where the beliefs are.

I believe in the stock market, even with no guarantees, and I bet/invest at a level that reflects that belief.

[FAA]

if a casino is relatively small, I'll leave after one $20,000+
jackpot --- just because a small casino needs time to recuperate after
big hits.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Excellent strategy. I wish I knew the feeling! I leave after a RF and move after a quad. Same theory. Recovery time for the Progressive bank or individual machine.