Normal or just really bad luck?

[Knightravyn]

So, I have been playing in one of the contests for 2 years, Just the single hand game usually because the only game I like in the other categories is split poker..

I have friends who play here and tell me that in a month they usually hit 3-4 4000 credit jackpots, I play both super double bonus and Joker Poker (The one where you get 4000 for a 5 of a kind) and in 2 years I have NEVER hit a 4,000 jackpot...not even once. Yet they tell me they hit 3-4...

is it just me or is it pretty normal to not hit? Its been 2 years, I live in vegas and I dont have that much bad luck in the casinos, I have even hit 2 royals back to back and had one dealt to me in RL...

:(

[TsuDoNihm]

That would be pretty normal for ME, other people not so much.  Of
course the math says you should only get a royal every 2 1/2 -3 monthly
contests, but since lots of people are bad at math maybe that doesn't
apply to everyone

I
stayed away from the weekly for years knowing that I was pretty unlikely
to hit a royal but started playing last month on a whim.  I was right.  No royals
for me and unless I hit one tomorrow I'll probably end up in the
300-400 range for my final rank.  Last month I ended up at 586.  Even worse, I played roughly 75% Double Bonus Deuces in
both months and have yet to hit quad deuces, with or without a kicker. 
At least I did hit aces with a kicker a few times on ddb, and what was probably more than my share of quint aces. 


I was curious so I looked at the past winners and found that of the
people listed in the top 100 last month 71 had not made the top 100 in
the past 6 months, 22 had been there twice, and for seven people it was
their third time.  For a long
time I've noticed that you see the same names over and over again on the
leader boards, with scores I've virtually never been able to hit.    With the
weekly
there is no way of knowing how much they play and those that play more
can be expected to get higher scores, but it's the same amount of play
available to all in the
daily, monthly, and 7 Stars where play volume is limited.  That should
leave more equal results, but doesn't seem to.  You can also see this discrepancy in the achievement awards.


I was thrilled to see the new images on pages of people's wins,
primarily because I was able to see for the first time how completely,
utterly impossible it was for me to ever get anywhere near placing, much
less winning something.  I didn't even look through that many profiles,
perhaps 15-20, but that was more than enough for a wake up call. 


I mostly focused on dealt hands, royals and those with kickers,
because they are "supposed" to be rare, have zero relationship to user
skill or knowledge, and in most contests that's the only way you'll
win.  For most of the people I looked at these dealt hands were more
common than drawn royals are for me. 


There were 3 players that had more than one dealt royal; 2 of them
that had two just this month and a third that had three.  Between the
three of them they had at least, (I didn't go back past June 1 on one of
them), 9 dealt royals since the first of the year.  A few of those were
on Dream Card, but I've never hit one that way either.  In 20 years
of playing VP both in the casino and online I've only had one dealt royal; here, 2
years ago and while I don't remember my final position it wasn't in the
top 5 and I think it may have been outside the top 10.

Most of the three above also had multiple dealt aces w/kicker and
2/3/4 w/kicker, not to mention the scores and scores of royals and
kicker wins that didn't come from a dealt hand.  The images don't show
any other dealt quads that were not a large enough win to show on the
profile but I suspect there were plenty of those as well. 

But as remarkable as those were, at least as compared to my
puny record, there were others with even more amazing results. 


Since June 1st a trio of players I looked at had an impressive amount
of dealt kicker hands, with the 1st having four aces w/k and two 2/3/4
w/k, the second with two aces w/k and four 2/3/4 w/k, and the third with
a lone ace w/k and three 2/3/4 w/k.  During a previous month one of
those had dealt 3's w/k on each of 4 consecutive days.  I believe I've
only been dealt Aces w/k once here, late last year, for which I ended up in
19th place.  It's been far longer for a dealt 2/3/4 with a kicker for me
and I have to go back over a year to find the last time I hit that.


If I see a royal in a month I'm pleasantly surprised but one player
had 46 royals and 18 Aces with a kicker in a mere 7 days.  This wasn't
dealt hands, but it caught my attention anyway.


Slightly different, but still unusual, was the dealt quad deuces that
one player managed to get while playing deuces wild.  TWICE within 10
minutes.  I play a lot of DW, but in all my years I've only managed to
have them dealt to me once, and that was about 8 years ago.


Some of the above had dealt royals as well, but since they were just
lone royals they are hardly worth mentioning.  I believe there were also
a number of others with large numbers of dealt kicker hands, but I was
focusing on a different aspect and didn't write them down.


My record is, um, considerably less stellar. 
In fact, I
think it's time to put a fork in me. 

Sure, I get a bone once in a while
but nothing even close to what a small group of people get on a daily
basis and it's become crystal clear to me that it isn't likely to
change.  I'll find something more productive to do, like arguing
politics on online forums.

[ukaserex]

It is quite normal not to hit a royal.

I mean, consider the odds of getting one, they are remote, indeed.

There's a statistical term called a standard deviation. These guys that hit the royal 3-4 times per month, well - those folks are in a different section of the statistically normal population than the rest of us.

I actually got a royal in June, playing the TDB (monthly contest). I finished that session ranked #11. I finished the month somewhere in the 200's and was still over 20,000 credits behind 1st place! Which means that someone got at least a few more royals than I did!

They may be playing the optimum royal strategy; I have no idea. But, they were just luckier than I was. Or, they made far fewer mistakes, which is also possible. Either way, it's frustrating, but it's just part of the game. At least it's not real cash!

[dramucom]

I'm pretty new here but very experienced with most of the games found on this site and I can tell you that getting a royal is super rare (which makes it all the sweeter when it finally does happen)

[Lionqueen]

I have got a Royal each monthly contest since January with the exception of last month. The folks that get the multiples post they are surprised so maybe our day will come too. Just hang in there - it's all just for fun. 😉