Can anyone give an approximation of hand frequency

[billryan]

Let's say you average 500 hands an hour, approximately how many full houses and plain flushes can one expect?
Thanks.

[onemoretry]

For double double bonus, the statistical frequency for full houses is one per 96 hands, and for flushes, one per 78 hands.

For bonus poker and jacks or better, those numbers are one per 86 and one per 91, respectively. For double bonus, with a flush paying 7 for 1, the full house frequency is one per 89, while the flush frequency increases to 1 in 68.

[billryan]

I was looking for JOB, but these are close enough. I seem to get more full houses than flushesBut I digress. Thanks..

[alpax]

500 hands is a small sample size, a lot can happen.

Jacks or Better played optimally every deal

Full House - 1 in 86.86 - 1.151%
Flush - 1 in 90.79 - 1.101%
Straight - 1 in 89.05 - 1.123%

I know the ranking of poker hands by heart very well, but based on how you approach the game of video poker, you end up getting more full houses than the other hands. You are dealt a pair 43.2% of the time which is close to half. You rarely throw away that pair strategic wise, hence you end up with more full houses. Not sure if that will explain that anomaly.

How many Full Houses or Flushes will you get in a hour? 500 is a very small sample size to evaluate.

You have to evaluate using at least 30 cycles using confidence intervals, if full house is 1 in 86.86. you have to at least go for 2700 hands, but to use a round number, go with 3000.

Using the confidence interval formula found online and the 99% confidence z-score.

"On 99% of my video poker trips to play 6 hours {or 3000 hands} of Jacks or Better perfectly, I can expect 19.5 to 49.5 full houses and I can expect 18.3 to 47.7 flushes"

For 5000 hands - 10 hours

"On 99% of my video poker trips to play 10 hours {or 5000 hands} of Jacks or Better perfectly, I can expect 38 to 77 full houses and I can expect 36 to 74 flushes"

[billryan]

My question wasn't about a single hour, it was playing at a speed of 500 hands per hour, how many full houses an hour I can expect.
It appears to be roughly six.So playing an 8-6 game, I would lose about $1.50 an hour on a twenty five cent game just in full houses.

[alpax]

The average rate only applies if you intend on playing for the long haul.

Careful how you phrase "twenty five cent game", most people usually refer to it as denomination, so it would make it $1.25 overall bet. If that is what you really meant, then it will be a $7.50 additional loss per hour.

Not everywhere can you customize your bet size like Emerald Island.

Either way, short pay games are not inexpensive, unless you get something really impressive in return from the casino.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]Either way, short pay games are not inexpensive, unless you get something really impressive in return from the casino.[/quote]This is what makes single coin a viable option when playing short pay games.   Even with comps and the royal bonus, you often can not overcome the house edge no matter how skilled or disciplined you may be.  The negatives of single coin are obvious.  Playing small denomination single coin takes much of the fun out of video poker and you don't get many comps.  Never the less, playing low denomination single coin is often cheaper than playing max coins when the odds are against you.

[olds442jetaway]

BR....there is an easy way to make up a little chart yourself on this. Go to the Wizard of Odds website. Look up the pay table for the game you want. As an example pick a hand like 4 deuces on Ugly Ducks Deuces Wild. Look across to the probability decimal. Divide 1 by that decimal. It will give you a frequency. In this case, one hit every 5300 hands roughly. If you play 500 hands an hour, divide 5300 by 500. In the long run, you can expect to hit the quad deuces every 10-11 hours of play. Remember....long run can be really long. At least it is for me. The same rules apply for any paytable, any game, etc. You can easily make up a little chart on the hit frequency and bring it with you. I do this myself though I have most everything memorized. As I get close to 70, I am sure I will be relying on the chart a lot more. Unfortunately, hit frequency on a per session basis is meaningless. Just nice to have the info.

[billryan]

Thanks, all.